Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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470
FXUS63 KDLH 041757
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1157 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE A COUPLE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AN
AREA OF LOW LEVEL WAA WAS ALSO OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. THESE
FEATURES WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR TWO AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. THE FIRST
STRETCHED FROM NEAR KINL TO KAIT AND WAS MOVING EAST. MOST OF THE
MODELS WEAKEN THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES FURTHER EAST.
THE WAA DOES WEAKEN SO THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. A SECOND AREA OF SNOW
WAS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AS OF 09Z. THIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
BORDER NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION TO PINE
CITY/HINCKLEY/SIREN TO WINTER/HAYWARD TO PARK FALLS/PHILLIPS.
STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL AID
IN A BURST OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY SNOW FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A HALF TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS. THE SNOW WILL
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...MAKING IT TO
THE HAYWARD/WINTER AREA BY LATE MORNING. WESTERN AREAS OF THE
NORTHLAND FROM KCDD TO KDLH AND WEST WILL BE DRY THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT DEVELOPS ALONG A
PORTION OF THE NORTH SHORE THIS MORNING. KDLH WAS SHOWING WEAK
ECHOES OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK THIS
MORNING TO SOUTHWEST...A FAVORABLE FETCH WILL DEVELOP. 850MB TEMPS
ARE FORECAST AROUND -12C TO -13C. AREAS FROM AROUND SILVER BAY TO
TO GRAND PORTAGE MAY PICK UP 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO THE LAKE
EFFECT AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH.

THE CHANCE WILL SNOW WILL END FOR MOST AREAS THIS
EVENING...LINGERING LONGER IN THE SNOWBELT OF NORTHERN ASHLAND/IRON
COUNTIES. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS TONIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND ON FRIDAY BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA. WE BOOSTED POPS QUITE A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL UP TO AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS  TO MIDDLE TWENTIES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE TWENTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WEAK CLIPPER FRIDAY NIGHT THEN ANOTHER STRONGER
AND SLOWER MOVING CLIPPER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND THEN FALL TO BELOW
NORMAL NEXT WEEK DUE TO A COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE SECOND
CLIPPER SYSTEM.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING ENOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. BEHIND THE TROUGH THERE WILL BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF
POSSIBLY CLEARING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS
THE MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO BORDER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CLOUDINESS...A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. A POTENT-LOOKING MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE
UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
VEERS FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW DEEPENS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...PLACING THE NORTHLAND WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW
RESULTING IN WARM TEMPS...AS HIGH AS THE MID 30S ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE LOW.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SFC LOW TRANSLATES FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WELL INTO MONDAY DUE TO
THE COLD AND UNSTABLE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW. AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE WILL BE PRIMED TO RECEIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT LASTING AS LONG AS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO OR COLDER ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS COLD MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE JET STREAM LIFTS NORTH
LIMITING COLD AIR INTRUSION FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD THOUGH...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE STRONG SIGNALS FOR
ANOTHER BLAST OF EVEN COLDER AIR TO ARRIVE FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

MVFR CIGS REMAIN WIDESPREAD WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
N MINNESOTA AND N WISCONSIN AS A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. OCCASIONAL VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CEILING TODAY... WITH THE FORECAST EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO OVERALL
VFR AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AND WILL
LIKELY LOWER CIGS/VIS AGAIN... BUT THIS WILL OCCUR BEYOND THE
24HR TAF PERIOD... SO NO MENTION IN THE OFFICIAL FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  25   5  24  13 /  80  10  60  40
INL  19  -1  22   0 /  60  10  50  20
BRD  23   4  24  12 /  70  20  60  20
HYR  25   0  23  14 /  70  20  40  50
ASX  26   6  25  15 /  80  40  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MCLOVIN



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