Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 180932

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
332 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 332 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

At 330 AM, skies were mostly cloudy across the Northland. The
exception was in portions of north central Minnesota, with some
clear areas. Temperatures this morning ranged from around 15 in
the clear areas of north central Minnesota, to the mid 30s in
portions of northwest Wisconsin and areas near Lake Superior. Some
light fog was reported, mainly in northwest Wisconsin, with more
substantial fog just east of the CWA.

The main focus for this weekend will be cloud trends and
temperatures, along with a chance of lake effect snow showers
along the South Shore. Generally quiet weather is in store for the
weekend. A couple H5 shortwaves will move southeast across the
area today through tonight, generating areas of clouds, along with
a few snow showers or some flurries. An elongated area of higher
vorticity will move through the region today, as another shortwave
moves out of the Manitoba Lakes region tonight. Will continue to
mention a chance of light precipitation across the border country,
as well as along the South Shore. Not looking for much in the way
of snow accumulation along the Snowbelt, but could be some light
accumulation along the Gogebic Range today and tonight.

Highs today will range from the 20s in the north to the 30s south.
Lows tonight will range from the single digits to teens, with
highs on Sunday ranging from near 20 in the far Arrowhead, to the
mid 30s in the Brainerd Lakes region. Partly sunny skies are
expected for Sunday, with the exception of some snow showers
across the north and also along the South Shore.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 332 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

A fairly progressive weather pattern across North America will lead
to a series of arctic air intrusions over the next 7-10 days,
causing temperatures to range from above normal (Monday) to below
normal (Tues night) and back to above normal (Friday). Precipitation
chances will be low through next week with just a few chances for
light snowfall accumulations, mainly across the international border
Mon night-Tuesday and Friday and also on the south shore Tuesday
night due to lake effect snow in the wake of the colder airmass.

On the synoptic scale the work week begins mild with a surface low
deepening over south central Canada and an expansive warm front
stretching from southern Saskatchewan across northeast Minnesota and
northern WIsconsin. This warm front builds northeast leading to
850mb temps around +7C, and where skies remain clear south of
HIghway 2 highs will climb into the 40s, to the north in the mid
30s. Increasing clouds and a chance for snow Monday night into
Tuesday, with the best chance for snow north of the Iron Range where
the best large-scale lift from the approaching mid-level shortwave
trough will be located. Colder air swiftly moves in aloft with 850mb
temps falling to the mid teens below zero by Tuesday afternoon. High
pressure builds in across the northern Plains and Midwest towards
mid-week leading to clearing skies. Total snowfall Monday night
through Wednesday will be light, with perhaps an inch or so north of
the Iron Range and for parts of the Wisconsin snow belt region which
will see a favorable environment for lake effect snow for about 12
hours Tuesday afternoon/evening. Lows falling to the single
digits/low teens above zero Tuesday night. Highs in the 20s Tuesday
and Wednesday, about ten degrees below normal.

Mid to late week looks like a repeat of the first half of the week
with milder air moving in aloft Thursday associated with a broad
warm frontal zone stretching from central Alberta southeast to
eastern North Dakota and south to the mid-Mississippi river valley.
Increasing clouds can be expected as well as closer to average
temperatures, but precipitation chances will be low due to the lack
of strong large-scale forcing. There will be an upper low moving
southeast across the far northern Ontario border which will pack
with it strong large-scale forcing and arctic air (as cold as -25C
at 850mb) but all guidance keeps the effects of this system away
from the Upper Midwest. The Thanksgiving Holiday looks dry with
mostly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s. A bit
warmer and a low chance for light precipitation Friday with highs in
the 30s to mid 40s, with recent guidance trending much warmer with
highs as warm as mid 40s for the Twin Ports. Beyond Friday most
guidance depicts colder temps for the Northland over the weekend as
a colder airmass moves in from the north.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

A front crosses tonight, but plenty of low level moisture will
lead to a variety of sub-VFR conditions - though latest guidance
suggests a little more improvement than previously thought is
possible. A few breaks here and there may temporarily improve
conditions to VFR, but largely expecting patchy crud to linger.
Moisture begins to erode as stronger winds arrive Saturday and
mixes the BL at least raising ceilings, but will also have 15-20
kt gusty winds at terminals to contend with.


DLH  27  10  27  20 /   0   0   0   0
INL  23   6  24  14 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  28  11  35  23 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  31  11  29  21 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  32  15  29  22 /  20  30  10   0


LS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CST Sunday
     for LSZ121-145>148.



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