000
FXUS63 KDLH 121302 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
702 AM CST THU DEC 12 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM CST THU DEC 12 2013

TRIMMED AREAL COVERAGE OF WC ADVISORY OVER ARROWHEAD AND ADDED AN
AREA OF FLURRIES OVER NRN ST LOUIS/LAKE COUNTIES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST THU DEC 12 2013

SHORTWAVE IN MID LVL FLOW IS RACING SE ACROSS WISC/MN BORDER NEAR
KSUW EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY IN MOST OF THE REGION AS
CLOUDS AND PRECIP SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WINDCHILL VALUES
LOWEST OVER BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD/ERN WISC ZONES. HAVE CANCELLED
WC ADVISORY OVER SOUTHWESTERN CWA AND NEAR TWIN PORTS AS SFC
TEMPS/WIND DONT SUPPORT WC VALUES NECESSARY FOR HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST THU DEC 12 2013

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW MID LVL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD. INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH SNOW DIMINISHING. AN AREA OF WEAK MID LVL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR IN JUST ABOUT ANY
LOCATION...TRIED TO PLACE HIGHEST POPS IN ZONE OF HIGHER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. A SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM
NRN SASK OVERNIGHT. MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE WILL GRADUALLY SAG
SOUTHWARD WITH A TENDENCY TO HAVE HIGHEST PROB OF ANY SNOW
SHIFTING TO SRN TIER OF CWA. OVERALL LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
NEXT 24 HRS DUE TO LIMITED STRENGTH AND SPEED OF FORCING. MAX
TEMPS TODAY WILL MODERATE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY HOWEVER STILL
REMAIN CONSIDERABLY BLO CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION WILL RESUME OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH MAX TEMPS FRIDAY ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLING TO
GET ABOVE ZERO OVER NORTHERN HALF OF CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT  303 AM CST THU DEC 12 2013

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN UNSTABLE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DIGGING
SHORT WAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE WRN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SN ACCUMULATIONS TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND. LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN TIP/NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR CAN EXPECT A FEW INCHES AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE SFC REFLECTION LOW. THE ONSHORE WINDS AND H85 TEMPS IN
THE NEGATIVE TEEMS WILL PROMOTE LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME.

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THE VORT SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY
WITH H85 TEMPS RETURNING TO THE NEGATIVE 20S C. A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING CLIPPERS WILL DROP OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK...KEEPING BROADBRUSH SMALL POPS AND A LIGHT WARM-UP. LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS/NORTHLAND LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW...FOLLOWED BY
A ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST THU DEC 12 2013

A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WILL BE FOUND TODAY WITH VFR CEILINGS
GENERALLY AROUND 6-8 KFT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS AND -SN FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  10  -5   4   4 /  30  30  20  40
INL   3 -19  -6 -13 /  20  10  10  20
BRD  14  -3   5  -2 /  10  30  20  30
HYR  12   0  11   5 /  20  30  20  30
ASX  13   0   9   9 /  30  60  80  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ011-012-
     021.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ003-004-
     009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING