000
FXUS63 KDLH 311744
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1244 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY OVER THE SRN AND SWRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. IN GENERAL THE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK WITH EMBEDDED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO PULSE STRONGER IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ERN ONTARIO WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHRT WVS ROTATING SWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AREA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH THE
RAIN THAT FELL LAST NIGHT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE OVER
SECTIONS OF N-CNTRL WI...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AGAIN AND MAKE WAY
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN. A WEAK S/W WILL COMBINE
WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE FROM AROUND GRAND RAPIDS TO HAYWARD. ML
CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. SO
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AND QUICKLY PULSE UP
AND DOWN. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THE STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S. COULD POSSIBLY SEE PATCHY FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT.

A MORE DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND HOOKS UP WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. HIGH
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT ASIDE FROM SOME SPOTTY EVENING
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AS
A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY
MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT THE CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FAIRLY UNIFORM FOR THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A CU FIELD WAS ONCE AGAIN FORMING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 5-7KFT ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST AREAS.

THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WE CONFINED THE MENTION TO KHYR WHICH
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE.

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...AND MAY
LEAD TO SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  58  79  56 /  10  10  30  10
INL  79  53  80  52 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  81  58  82  58 /  30  20  20  10
HYR  79  56  79  54 /  20  20  30  20
ASX  77  56  76  52 /  10   0  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE