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000
FXUS63 KAPX 280753
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
353 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Deep vertically-stacked low centered over the Western Great Lakes
region continues to slowly drop south early this morning. Deep
cyclonic flow and plenty of moisture wrapping around this low
continue to produce lake-enhanced rain showers. While delta T`s in
the mid teens remain more than favorable for lake contribution to
ongoing precip production...low level winds are in the process of
shifting from the persistent W/SW flow over the past couple of days
to a more easterly component as the low center drops southward thru
the length of Lake Michigan. In response...W/SW orientation of lake-
enhanced rain bands has fallen apart...and much of the precip has
pushed offshore into Northern Lake Michigan.

Vertically-stacked low center will progress southward along Lake
Michigan and into the Ohio Valley today...generally holding over the
Ohio Vally thru tonight. Persistent deep cyclonic flow will maintain
strong convergence over our area. A small amount of
warming/moderating will occur aloft as the shift to low level
easterly flow ushers in slightly warmer temps aloft. But delta T`s
will remain sufficient (in the lower teens) for some continued lake
contribution to ongoing precip. Shifting low level winds will settle
into an E/NE trajectory today and will persist into tonight as the
low continue to slide south of Michigan. This will reorient focus of
lake-enhanced rain showers eastward into NE Lower Michigan where
highest POPs can be expected. Pool of slightly colder air aloft (500
mb temps of around -20 C) will slide into our SE CWA this
afternoon...which may kick off an embedded thunderstorm or two.
MUCAPES increasing to 500-750 J/kg in this area suggests this
possibility...as does SPC`s Day 1 outlook of general thunder for
this area. Will add a slight chance of thunder for the SE half of
our CWA. No severe storms are expected.

Expect temps today will be not quite as cool as yesterday...with
afternoon highs warming into the mid 60s and overnight lows cooling
back into the low to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

The upper low that has brought the showery weather over the last
couple of days will continue to sink southward then stall out across
the northern Ohio Valley Thursday. This system is then expected to
head back to the north Friday into this weekend as the ECMWF has
shown over the last few days. So after a break in the dismal weather
Thursday for much of northern lower (except for perhaps a few
leftover showers across southeast zones), wet weather will return
from south to north during the day Friday into the weekend. One
thing of note is that the ECMWF timing is faster which could lead to
a quicker return of the showers (Thursday night). It will likely
become breezy for Thursday and Friday as well due to a decent
surface pressure gradient between strong high pressure to the north
and weak low pressure associated with the upper low to the south.
The persistent upper low should finally push off to our east Monday
taking the showers with it (though the ECMWF is slower which may
linger showers longer). A narrow ridge of high pressure then follows
for Monday night into Tuesday night yielding precipitation free and
mild conditions. An approaching cold front will bring more shower
chances Wednesday. Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal
for Thursday (middle 60s to lower 70s) then settle back toward
normal for Friday through Sunday (lower to middle 60s) before
increasing to above normal again for the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1151 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016

MVFR to VFR.

A cool/damp airmass remains in place tonight, as low pressure
moves south from central upper MI across Lake MI. Lake effect
rain showers will continue in nw lower MI, then diminish Wednesday
as the low moves south and easterly low-level flow develops. MVFR
to VFR conditions will be seen tonight. Improving conditions are
expected Wednesday.

Ongoing west winds will become light tonight, with an e to ne
breeze developing Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru early afternoon
as low pressure drops southward thru the length of Lake Michigan.
Conditions will approach SCA criteria later this afternoon and
tonight as low level winds shift to the east across Michigan as the
low center reaches the Ohio Valley. Lake-enhanced rain showers will
continue to develop...but highest POPs will reorient into NE Lower
Michigan in response to winds shifting to the east. Waterspouts will
remain possible on Lake Michigan thru early afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MLR