Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 241046
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
646 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THIS
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA. A RETURN TO MUCH
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

...A BEAUTY OF A DAY...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

QUITE UNEVENTFUL OUT THERE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENGULFS THE GREAT
LAKES...A PATTERN THAT JUST CAN`T BE BROKEN. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WERE TIED TO THE THROUGH AXIS...AND THAT`S ABOUT ALL THE WEATHER
THAT IS GOING ON. HIGH PRESSURE IS WORKING IN OVER THE SRN GREAT
LAKES WITH AREA VAD WIND PROFILES AND RAOBS SHOWING DEEP DRY
NORTHERLY AIR. WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED MOST AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID 40S AND LOWER 50S. SUCH A STABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH THE CLOSEST INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...TOWARD OK AND BACK UP THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND EASTERN ROCKIES.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

REALLY A BEAUTIFUL DAY SHAPING UP. THERE WILL BE A SFC TROUGH TRYING
TO SWOOP DOWN ACROSS THE SAULT/NRN LAKE HURON...AND MAY HAVE SOME
BETTER CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH IT...BUT MOST AREAS JUST GOING TO SEE
SCATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL DEVELOP INTO LAKE
BREEZES/ONSHORE FLOW WHICH WILL CONSOLIDATE MUCH OF THIS CLOUD
INLAND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER. AIR MASS REMAINS DRY WITH
NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

CUMULUS WILL FADE AWAY THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT/CALM
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S AGAIN. THE SFC
HIGH DOES EXIT LATE TONIGHT WITH UPPER FLOW BACKING DUE TO A CLOSED
LOW DRIFTING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT AND THE INITIAL EJECTED MID LEVEL
ENERGY/VORTICITY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

...AN ACTIVE AND RATHER COOL PERIOD OF WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. CHANCES FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ALWAYS GOOD (FROM A
FORECASTERS PERSPECTIVE THAT IS) TO SEE MID AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
REMAIN ESSENTIALLY ROCK-STEADY IN LARGER SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION.
THAT INDEED IS WHAT WE HAVE THIS EARLY MORNING...WITH NEARLY ALL
DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE SUITE ADVERTISING AN
INCREASINGLY UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
NOAM IN THE COMING DAYS. PER THE NOW MULTI-SEASONAL TREND...NORTHERN
MICHIGAN LOOKS TO REMAIN SMACK-DAB IN THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH PHASE
OF THIS AMPLIFICATION...ONCE AGAIN OPENING THE DOOR FOR AN EXTENDED
STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE ROUND OUT THE MONTH OF
JULY. PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE ONE...WITH STRONG JET
ENERGY...FAST MOVING DIGGING WAVES...AND INCREASINGLY CHILLY AIR
ALL WORKING TOGETHER TO BRING US MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGHOUT
AND SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS: PATTERN EXPECTED TO BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO
THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXACT DETAILS STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FLEETING. WEAK WAVE IN BRIEFLY DEAMPLIFYING OVERHEAD FLOW HAS
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...EVIDENT BY PWAT VALUES
SURGING TO 1.0-1.5 INCH LEVELS BY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. WHILE MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS ARE BY NO MEANS OVERWHELMING...NORTHERN LAKES DO LOOK TO
COME UNDER COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AS JET CORES PUNCH INTO
NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST LAKES. LATEST TRENDS ARE SEVERAL
HOURS FASTER SPREADING ABOVE INTO AND OUT OF OUR AREA...WITH INITIAL
JET FORCING ARRIVING AS SOON AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON....WHILE EXITING
BETTER DYNAMICS OFF TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY. NOT REAL SURE/CONFIDENT
ON JUST HOW TO HANDLE THIS MUCH FASTER SCENARIO. THOUGHT IS TO
REMAIN A TOUCH CONSERVATIVE ON FORECAST CHANGES FOR NOW...
INTRODUCING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT (REFRAINING FROM
LIKELY WORDING A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH WOULD SUGGEST)...WHILE
SLIGHTLY LOWERING CHANCES SATURDAY...AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
NO DOUBT CONFIDENCE INCREASES LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS MUCH MORE
VIGOROUS TROUGH DEEPENING WAVE DIGS ACROSS OUR AREA. DYNAMICS ALONE
SUPPORT REALLY GOOD SHOWER CHANCES...WITH SOME HINTS OF A QUICKLY
DEVELOPING NORTH SIDE DEFORMATION/TROWAL FEATURE TO BRING A MORE
STEADY...WIDESPREAD RAIN TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY RIGHT
INTO THE START OF MONDAY (NOT UNLIKE OUR PREVIOUS UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY SYSTEM...WHICH BROUGHT A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS
TO MUCH OF THE NORTH HALF OF OUR AREA).

WHILE MOST VIGOROUS PORTION OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LAKES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...DEEP TROUGHING IS MUCH
SLOWER TO DEPART. ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO DIURNAL
TRENDS AND PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL LOW AMP WAVES IN DEEP NORTH FLOW
REGIME. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL WAVES...FORCED TO TAKE
A MORE GENERIC CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH...SLIGHTLY MASSAGED TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN CLIMATOLOGY WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. BIGGER STORY LIKELY TO BE THE RETURN TO
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
MONDAY LIKELY STUCK IN THE 60S...AND ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN OVERALL LIGHT NW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE LAKE BREEZES.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL FADE THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS GO
LIGHT/CALM.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND REGIME DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW/LAKE BREEZES MOST NEARSHORES. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST TONIGHT WITH A SW FLOW DEVELOPING.
GRADIENT IS STILL ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASES
IN WIND DEVELOPING. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE HEADING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LOW PRESSURE AND CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD






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