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000
FXUS63 KAPX 260540
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1240 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A QUIET AND UNEVENTFUL NIGHT AHEAD...THOUGH IT SAYS SOMETHING WHEN
MIN TEMPS OF 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ARE /UNEVENTFUL/. MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ARE ENCROACHING ON NORTHERN LOWER MI...SPAWNED BY ACTIVE LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. ANY REAL RISK OF PRECIP WILL LIKEWISE
BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH THE 00Z APX SOUNDING SHOWING VERY DRY
AIR BELOW 650MB. LAKE-INDUCED CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES
CONTINUE TO IMPACT NW LOWER W OF TVC/CAD...ROGERS CITY TO NORTH OF
APN...AND NEAR PARADISE/WHITEFISH PT. SLOW VEERING OF THE
1000-850MB WINDS WILL TEND TO DECREASE COVERAGE IN NW LOWER AND
EASTERN UPPER MI...WHILE STABILIZE IT IN NE LOWER.

TEMPS ALREADY SUB-ZERO IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS...AND WE
REMAIN ON PACE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT.

FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER CONCERNS: MINIMAL.

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: 19Z SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS COLD FRONT
THAT PLOWED THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN LAST EVENING NOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND EXTENDS BACK TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PRESSING
INTO THE MIDWEST. ASSOCIATED BATCH OF CLOUDS AND SNOWFALL IS ALSO
ADVANCING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND NOSING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. SNOW
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MISS US TO THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SKIRT THROUGH THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA
LATER TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BACK ACROSS
WESTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION KEEPING OUR TEMPS VERY COLD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. WE STILL HAVE SOME VERY SHALLOW NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOWS STREAMING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...EVEN OFF
SUPERIOR WHERE THERE REMAINS SOME OPEN WATER/CRACKS. BUT VERY LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND FAIRLY DRY AIR HAS KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN
CHECK THROUGH THE DAY THUS FAR ALTHOUGH WE OCCASIONALLY SEE
TVC/MBL VSBYS DROP TO UNDER 2 MILES...THANKS TO BETTER SUPPORTING
TRAJECTORIES ACROSS SOME OPEN WATER OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...COULD STILL SEE SOME LAKE CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
IMPACTING THE SHORELINE COUNTIES FROM LEELANAU TO MANISTEE AS
WELL AS PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA. BUT OVERALL...LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING
MORE NORTHERLY SHOULD LARGELY BRING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS AND
ALLOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING...PARTICULARLY EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN WITH FLOW COMING OUT OF ONTARIO. HOWEVER...IT/S NOT A
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT SUCH AS WE/VE SEEN OVER THE LAST
COUPLE WEEKS...WITH THICKER MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SLIDING
THROUGH THE SRN COUNTIES...A BIT OF A P-GRADIENT AND RESULTING
LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND EVEN SOME LINGERING LAKE CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME. SO...I DO NOT FORESEE ANOTHER 20 TO 30 BELOW
MORNING ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND PARTS
OF INTERIOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN NORTH OF...SAY...M-72 WILL LIKELY
DIP INTO THE 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE ESPECIALLY IN THE AU SABLE
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL PUSH APPARENT TEMPS DOWN TO COLDER THAN 20
BELOW FOR SOME SPOTS. BUT GIVEN A LIGHT WIND...WILL NOT BE ISSUING
ANY SORT OF WIND CHILL HEADLINE FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

(2/26)THURSDAY... THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WINDS TURN FROM N TO NNW AND
NW BY 00Z, THIS WILL PUSH THE BAND THAT IS OFFSHORE TO JUST ONSHORE
BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE ONLY PROBLEM WILL BE THAT THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL BE 50% OR LESS AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DROP. LOOKING AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, THE "GOOD"
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND 925, AND IS PRETTY THIN, SO WILL EXPECT THAT
FLURRIES WILL RESULT, AND THOSE WOULD TAPER OFF INTO THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT, THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, SO
THERE COULD BE A FLARE UP, BUT WILL EXPECT THAT ONCE IT IS THROUGH,
THE SNOW SHOULD STOP.

(2/27)FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW. 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO -16C BY
00Z AND THE 850 MB LEVEL RH IS <40%. SO WILL EXPECT THAT THE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE ON TAP WITH A FLURRY OR TWO POSSIBLE, BUT FOR
THE MOST PART IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WITH THE LIGHT RETURN FLOW, WILL
EXPECT THAT THE MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP A BIT AS LOWS LOOK TO BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS PLUS OR MINUS.

(2/28)SATURDAY...DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND STRONGER RETURN FLOW WILL
WARM THE REGION INTO THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

AFTER A BIT OF A QUIET PERIOD...WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT...WIDE
SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN
KEEPING SUPPORT FOR HEAVIER SNOWS TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION LEADING TO A QUIET START TO THE WORKWEEK. THE
NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST ARRIVES MIDWEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRACK AND STRENGTH
CURRENTLY...WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON HOWEVER. WHILE STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL...THE TEMPERATURE MODERATION WILL CONTINUE AS WE SEE HIGHS IN
THE 20S FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

DRY LOW LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE REGION AS STRONG AND
COLD HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS FROM SRN
CANADA. WE`VE ALREADY LOST THE MVFR AT TVC DUE TO THIS DRY AIR AND
POSSIBLY SOME ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION...DESPITE A FAVORABLE NORTH
FLOW AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS SOME EXPANDING LOW CLOUD OUT OVER
LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK INTO APN AT SOME POINT
OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AS ICE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD...RESULTING IN MORE OPEN WATER AND ABILITY TO GENERATE
LAKE INDUCED STRATUS.

DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH...IF ANY...STRATUS AROUND DESPITE FRIGID
UNDER 10KT NW WINDS THURSDAY. ICE COVER AND DRY AIR PREVENTING
THAT. THIS LEADS INTO THURSDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN WHAT SHOULD
BE FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SMD