791
FXUS63 KAPX 271822
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
222 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms into this evening.

- Additional chances for rain and thunderstorms at times this
  weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Shortwave troughing will continue to slide across the Great Lakes
tonight into Saturday as ridging works in from the west. At the
surface, a ~1008mb cyclone currently centered over Lake Superior
will trek east-northeast into Ontario tonight, eventually working
across Quebec on Saturday. Surface high pressure will temporarily
build into the region on the backside of this system after the
attendant cold front swings across the area later this evening and
tonight.

Forecast Details:

Light showers have popped up across parts of northern lower Michigan
with partial clearing and resultant uptick in instability. This
activity will continue to track northeast with time this afternoon.
Additional shower/storm development is possible across northwest
lower as the aforementioned front swings into the area. A strong
storm or two appears unlikely at this time given meager lapse rates
resulting in profiles that would work to prevent higher-topped
thunderstorms. Any lingering shower/storm activity is expected to
dissipate later this evening, leaving a rain-free forecast in place
tonight and Saturday. Slightly cooler temperatures are in store for
most of the area on Saturday behind the front. West-northwest winds
will be in place through the day as temperatures look to warm into
the 70s during the afternoon. Highs in the low 80s will be possible
for those close to Saginaw Bay.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging will continue to slide east of the region as troughing
punches across the Upper Midwest late this weekend. The associated
surface cyclone will trek across James Bay into Quebec Sunday into
Monday, with additional pressure falls/weak cyclogenesis along the
attendant cold front draped across the Great Lakes. Said troughing
looks to move east on Tuesday, placing subsidence over the Great
Lakes that will help build surface high pressure across much of the
region through the end of the week.

Forecast Details:

Chances for showers and a few embedded storms return to northern
Michigan as activity from west of Lake Michigan may move into the
eastern U.P. and parts of northwest lower Michigan late Saturday
night/early Sunday. Most of northern lower is expected to stay dry
through the afternoon Sunday before more widespread rain and thunder
chances move into the Great Lakes beginning Sunday night. Building
instability with continued warm, moist advection will bring the
potential for a few strong storms late Sunday and Monday, although
limited deep-layer shear appears it will help cap higher severe
thunderstorm potential at this time. Regardless, rounds of showers
and storms are anticipated to start next week before chances taper
off into Tuesday and remain low through the middle of the week as
aforementioned high pressure builds in. Otherwise, warm temperatures
well into the 80s and even low 90s are in store for Sunday before
cooling back into the upper 70s/low 80s after the system moves
through.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 124 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

A few isolated showers/storms may develop this afternoon, although
chances are low that they`ll directly impact any of the terminals.
Otherwise, varied CIGs across northern Michigan ranging from
LIFR/IFR north to increasing probabilities for VFR at MBL/TVC/APN
through the remainder of the daylight hours. Increasing probabilities
for at least MVFR CIGs, if not lower, at all terminals tonight
before cloud bases rise and scatter out through Saturday morning.
Occasionally gusty southwest winds this afternoon veer more
westerly tonight while losing most of the gustiness.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     342.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...MJG