Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 041759
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1259 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

REASONABLY VIGOROUS LES HAS BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF
NW LOWER MI...AND OVER FAR NW CHIPPEWA CO IN EASTERN UPPER.
EARLIER ENHANCEMENT IN CHARLEVOIX CO HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY.
BEST SNOWS IN NORTHERN LOWER ARE NOW IN THE MBL AREA (AND LARGELY
UNDER THE RADAR BEAM)...WHERE VSBYS HAVE BEEN 1SM OR LESS FOR THE
LAST 2 HOURS.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS POKING NORTH INTO WI...CENTRAL
UPPER MI...AND CENTRAL SUPERIOR. THIS RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED
AS IT TRIES TO MOVE EAST INTO LOWER MI LATE TODAY. STILL...
1000-850MB WINDS WILL BE BACKING TODAY AS THIS OCCURS...USHERING
IN WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB. THE BACKING WINDS WILL REDISTRIBUTE
LES WITH TIME...PUSHING IT INLAND AND NORTHWARD.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO BE MADE TO SHSN COVERAGE...INCREASING POPS IN
MUCH OF NW/N CENTRAL LOWER MI EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...AND INCREASING
SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE FAR SW.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER...LOWERED VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.

...PERIODIC LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP OF INTEREST...NORTHERN MICHIGAN
LIES BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
EASTERN QUEBEC...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE MAIN
NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE MOVEMENT AND
EVOLUTION OF THE ROBUST LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND COMING OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

TODAY...CONTINUED DECENT BUT NOT GREAT OVER LAKE INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE DAY. A BEEFY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FORMED OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE LAST NIGHT THEN CONNECTED WITH LAKE MICHIGAN AND
MOVED INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS BAND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS FROM NORTHPORT TO OLD MISSION TO KALKASKA
AND LIKELY QUICKLY DROPPED A FEW INCHES OF SNOW (WHICH WAS COVERED
BY A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT). LUCKILY THIS BAND WAS WEAKENED
SOME OVER THE LAST HOUR AND BEGUN SHIFTING NORTHEAST. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
BREAK THIS BAND OFF FROM THE LAKES AND DRIFT IT INTO NORTHEAST
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON (WHICH FRANKLY SEEMS A LITTLE ODD AND
DEFINITELY NOT THE NORM). SO THIS TREND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
EXPECT A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREAS THAT IT DOES
MOVE ACROSS...MAINLY PORTIONS OF ANTRIM...CHARLEVOIX...CRAWFORD
AND OTSEGO COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. WEAK RIDGING...WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
WEDGE OF DRIER AIR FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BACKING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD DIMINISH ACTIVITY. HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S.

TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW VEERING WINDS INTO
THE WEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. NICE UPTICK IN MOISTURE AS WELL...SO
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE LAKE
MICHIGAN LAKESHORES. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: STILL MORE OF A
ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME EXPECTED INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. NOT A PARTICULARLY ROBUST PATTERN...ALTHOUGH WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS BEGINNING ITS SOUTHWARD DECENT OVER SOUTHERN
NUNAVUT...WITH A SECONDARY MUCH LOWER IN AMPLITUDE WAVE CUTTING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS
ONTARIO/THE FAR NORTHERN LAKES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH THEM.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. ADDRESSING SNOW CHANCES...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

DETAILS: ACTUALLY...A RATHER UNEVENTFUL START TO THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING WEST FLOW LIGHT LAKE SNOWS FRIDAY
MORNING. WHAT SYNOPTIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION THERE INITIALLY IS
QUICKLY DEPARTS...AND WITH CRASHING INVERSION HEIGHTS...SUGGESTS
LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES HEADING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. CAN`T EVEN RULE OUT SOME PEAKS OF SUN ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

CHANGES BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE HEADING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THOSE
EARLIER MENTIONED WAVES/ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH MAKE A RUN INTO THE
NORTHERN LAKES. TOP-DOWN SATURATION COMPLETES...KICKING OFF LIGHT
SNOW LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS LOOK JUST COLD
ENOUGH TO ADD SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO THE MIX ACROSS
THE TIP OF THE MITT/STRAITS REGION. KINDA EARLY FOR ANY REAL
SPECIFICS...BUT EARLY PERUSAL OF INCOMING GUIDANCE DERIVED SOUNDINGS
SHOWS 7KFT LAKE INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER...ALTHOUGH BEST OMEGA IS
PEGGED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF PRIME DGZ. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR
SURE...AND MAY GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE THIS POTENTIAL IN OUR LATEST
HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS. WILL TENTATIVELY PAINT IN A COUPLE
INCHES IN LAKE ENHANCED AREAS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. MID
LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH COMPLETE THEIR PASSAGE SATURDAY...
KICKING OFF SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE
PROCESS (AND PUNTING WHAT IS LEFT OF ANY LAKE SNOWS QUICKLY INLAND).

ANOTHER BREAK IN THE LIGHT SNOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE AND MID
LEVEL RIDGING ADVANCE OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH DIGGING TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM OF EXPANDING WESTERN NOAM
RIDGING. TROUGH (CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION?) SLOWLY MEANDERS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK. NO GULF TAP
EVIDENT...WITH ALL REAL DEEP MOISTURE TIED TO STORM RIDING UP OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. STILL...WOULD EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
LATER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND SIMPLY DO TO DURATION...MAY
SUPPORT SOME ACCUMULATION. WILL REALLY NEED TO MONITOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS AND TEMPERATURE REGIMES
ARE LITERALLY ALL OVER THE BOARD AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE. MORE
CERTAIN OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE SNOWS LOOKS TO KICK IN BY LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS SURGE OF COLDER AIR DROPS OVERHEAD WITHIN NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW DWINDLING THIS AFTERNOON...RETURNING LATE
TONIGHT.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN WI AND CENTRAL UPPER MI WILL
MOVE ACROSS LOWER MI LATE TODAY. THIS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...A TREND ALREADY UNDERWAY. ONCE WE GET ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL AID
IN REDEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT. A
RETURN TO MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR VSBYS IS EXPECTED AT PLN/TVC/MBL.

LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BACK SW FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN VEER W
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 422 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING THEN BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE TONIGHT THEN
VEER INTO THE WEST FRIDAY. WINDS PICK UP FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME CASES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...SULLIVAN


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