427
FXUS63 KAPX 011831
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
231 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers this evening into the overnight.

- Chances for showers/storms late Monday night through Tuesday.

- Cooler temperatures and occasionally wet weather late this week
  into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Short wave trough and weak low pressure system currently across IL
is producing showers downstream, but largely virga across the
Northwoods. This feature will continue to move northeast into this
evening and overnight slowly moistening the atmosphere and thus
spreading showery activity across the region. By Sunday midday,
system ejects east with zonal flow and or slight height rises
engulfing the region.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Quick moving upper level and coupled weak sfc system will move from
Illinois area into Michigan this evening and overnight. At first the
low levels of the atmosphere will be a little too dry to produce
precipitation, as shown in progged soundings, but eventually a good
chunk of northern lower will see rain showers, and steady rain for
some. Could see some modest rain amounts along and east of US-127
and south of M-72. The farther north the less precipitation with
just a few rain showers near and in the vicinity of the tip of the
mitt. Overall not all that impactful with temperatures in the 50s
tonight and light winds. Some showers activity may linger near
Alpena during the morning hours on Sunday, but generally the upper
level system ejects to the east thus ending precipitation chances.
Zonal flow/slight height rises and thus drier conditions are
expected on Sunday with seasonable temperatures as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Pattern Forecast: Shortwave troughing is expected to be east of the
area by early Sunday morning with shortwave ridging likely to build
across the western Great Lakes during the day Sunday. Ridging
amplifies through early this week as troughing digs upstream across
southwest Canada into the northwest third of the CONUS. By midweek,
that troughing slides overhead, potentially cutting off over the
Great Lakes region and remaining nearly stationary all the way
through next weekend. At the surface, high pressure largely expected
to be in control Sunday through Monday. Effects from upstream low
pressure perhaps felt as early as late Monday night/Tuesday with
additional periodic chances for unsettled weather through the
remainder of the forecast period as low pressure tied to the
aforementioned upper-level cutoff plagues the region.

Forecast Details: Mainly clear skies Monday night with low
temperatures largely in the upper 40s to mid-50s. Low-level
southeasterly flow aids to boost temperatures to near 80/low 80s
away from the immediate lakeshores on Monday. By Monday afternoon,
scattered convection is expected to be ongoing upstream across
eastern MN, WI and the western/central U.P. This activity will at
least initially have trouble with eastward extent given sufficiently
dry air locally; however, moisture fields to gradually increase
Monday evening, and more so Monday night - Tuesday. While
uncertainty remains with coverage of potential precip locally
(latest trends support coverage remaining pretty low), there remains
enough support to continue inherited PoPs through this time frame.
Some rumbles of thunder possible as well, especially as we get into
Tuesday afternoon. High temps Tuesday back into the 80s for many
areas with dew points creeping into the low 60s -- likely resulting
in a fairly sticky/humid day by northern MI standards.

Mid-week and onward, guidance remains fairly consistent with
troughing trekking into the region, cutting off and stalling
overhead through much of the upcoming weekend.  This ultimately
would support a rather lengthy stretch of cooler temperatures and
periodic shower chances. Coolest temperatures (60s and low 70s for
highs) progged to be Thursday through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 117 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Cloud cover will continue to increase through this afternoon and
overnight with -SHRA/-RA expected to develop. Precipitation
will move southwest to northeast, impacting KMBL late this
afternoon and spreading into KAPN into the overnight hours. Less
confident from KPLN up to KCIU but cannot rule out some brief
-SHRA. CIGs will lower to MVFR as moisture increases and -SHRA develops
 tonight with brief IFR possible from KMBL to KTVC.
-RA should exit most areas by 12Z Sunday morning with CIGs returning
  between 15 to 18Z.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...JLD