Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 182313

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
713 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Issued at 702 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Decaying line of showers continues to work toward northern
Michigan this evening. Current forecast has this light QPF event
handled well and forsee few changes. Do have some concerns about
period of lower clouds/patchy drizzle behind the front Wednesday
morning. Looking upstream, this is certainly a possibility and
will add a few hours of patchy drizzle to the forecast.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017

...Scattered showers tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...none.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Somewhat progressive and nearly zonal
flow pattern remains in place across the CONUS, downstream from a
large scale trough/upper low in the eastern Pacific. Well defined
short wave and attending surface low continues to roll through
the upper crossing far northern Wisconsin into the
U.P. with a cold front back into the central plains. Narrow
warm/moist air (theta-e) wedge points up into the western Great
Lakes ahead of the system, feeding a decaying batch of
precipitation moving through Wisconsin/western upper Michigan.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Minimal. Shower chances tonight.

Dampening short wave/attending surface low will cross the northern
lakes region tonight dragging surface cold front and decaying batch
of showers through the CWA. Not looking to be a big deal with
rainfall amounts under one tenth of an inch anticipated. Cold
front swings through late overnight/early Wednesday morning and
there may be a brief window of low stratus right in behind the
front as slightly cooler airmass spreads into the region.
Inherited drizzle in our forecast for Wednesday morning but
decided to remove...since it`s such of brief window of time...and
to better align with with our neighbors.

Otherwise...cloudy skies Wednesday morning will give way to thinning
cloud cover during the afternoon as surface high pressure quickly
slips across the region.


.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017

...Rain Moves into the Region, Possibly Heavy...

High Impact Weather Potential...Heavy rain along the M-55 corridor
that could lead to low level flooding along some rivers.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Low pressure moves into the Upper Great
Lakes Wednesday night, along the warm front As the low moves into
the state, the rain will continue from the low level jet forcing the
warm, moist air over the warm front along the M-55 corridor. The low
is just getting into C Lake Michigan by 15z/Thu, so the rain will
continue from the isentropic lift that will continue into the
afternoon and with the Showalter index of -2c, there will be
elevated thunder as the sfc low crosses the region. By 00z/Fri it
looks like the low will be crossing Upper Michigan, and the Dry air
in the 700-500 mb layer level will begin to diminish the moisture
overnight. The drying should continue into the day on Friday,
leaving the afternoon dry and partly sunny.

Primary Forecast Concerns...As has been said the last few days, the
main concern is the heavy rain potential. This situation looks
similar to the previous system that went through the region earlier
this week with rain fall amounts of 1.00-1.50" across N Lower. The
WPC excessive rain fall outlook has the entire lower peninsula in
the Marginal chance for excessive rain. This seems reasonable as the
SREF plume for QPF are clustered between 1.00 and 1.50" of rain for
the 24 hour period. At this point, the main area of concern will be
the rivers that are between the M-55 and M-72 corridors, give or
take depending on the track of the low.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017

The extended period is still looking quite dry, with only a few very
weak signals of any precip at all, with high pressure dominating the
Great Lakes region until the beginning of next work week, when
models begin to hint at the next storm system impacting the forecast
area. Only concern is whether or not a shortwave trough and some
lingering moisture from a departing system will continue to generate
nuisance precip and clouds Friday night into Saturday morning or
not. Highs will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s and lows in the 30s
throughout the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 702 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017

VFR conditions through much of tonight as a weak weather system
moves through the area with scattered light showers and sprinkles.
Cold front passes through the region early Wednesday morning and
there may be a several hour period behind the front with MVFR/IFR
cigs and patchy drizzle. VFR conditions should return for the
afternoon.  Cigs lower again tomorrow night with widespread rain


Issued at 351 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Gusty S-SE winds this afternoon will continue for a good chunk of
tonight before diminishing. May end up stretching small craft
advisories through the balance of the least for some
marine zones.

Winds shift into the north and eventually NE on Wednesday...but
winds/waves will remain below headline thresholds through the day.
Winds further veer easterly Wednesday night into Thursday and
increase once advance of another stronger wave of low
pressure that will cross the region Thursday. Small craft
advisories will likely be needed again on the waters, particularly
on Lake Huron.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321-322.


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