Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 280543

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
143 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

Issued at 1017 PM EDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Weak cool front has reached our southern CWA late this evening...
with weak northerly flow kicking in north of the boundary. Dew
points have also begun to drop in the wake of the front as drier
and more stable air filters into our area. Loss of diurnal
instability combined with arrival of more stable and drier air has
resulted in a steady diminish in residual diurnal convection
across eastern and southern sections of our CWA. Further
upstream...a short wave over Northern Wisconsin continues to
produce a compact area of convection...which has made little
eastward progress throughout the evening.

Weak cool front will continue to slowly sag southward out of
Northern Lower Michigan overnight...with high pressure gradually
building into the region behind the front on Thursday. Focus for
additional convection will likely west of our CWA over Wisconsin
in the vcnty of the short wave per all latest runs of the short
term models. Thus...our southern CWA will only see a slight
chance for showers and thunderstorms overnight.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 348 PM EDT Wed Jul 27 2016

High impact weather potential: Lingering thunderstorm potential
through tonight.

Pattern synopsis/expected evolution: Low amplitude mid level
troughing remains centered across the area, with a convectively
agitated shortwave embedded in such across east central Minnesota.
Weak and increasingly diffuse cold front making slow progress south
across northern Michigan. Just enough moisture pooling across the
area within a plethora of lake induced/thermally driven convergence
axes to kick off some scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of
which have been briefly heavy. Otherwise, slug of early showers and
thunderstorms to our west continues to fizzle out on their journey
across northern Lake Michigan.

Some subtle changes to occur overnight, with that diffuse "cold"
front continuing to work south across the area, all-the-while that
upstream wave slowly washes out on its trek across the Lakes.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Addressing lingering shower
and thunderstorm concerns through tonight.

Details: Rather nuisance filled forecast heading through tonight.
Guidance continues to struggle with convective evolution tonight,
not surprising given how weak overall forcing is expected to be. As
mentioned, that upstream waves dampens on its approach overnight,
with the cold front working south helping stabilize the environment
in its wake. Expect current showers and thunderstorms to propagate
east in outflow dominated environment this afternoon.
Not expecting an organized severe weather threat, although an
isolated severe wind gust or large hail report remains possible.
Trends for tonight should be for a slow propagation south of
additional shower potential, with the real possibility much of the
area will by dry after midnight. Decay of current 1k+ instability
plume should keep coverage limited tonight, with any thunderstorms
remaining below severe limits. Otherwise, a partly to mostly cloudy
night is expected, with lows ranging from the upper 50s to middle

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 PM EDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Thursday through Saturday...

(7/28)Thursday...The front is almost through northern Michigan. In
the morning, it looks like there may some showers along M-55, but
the best time looks to be in the afternoon during the heat of the
day and moisture pooling along the front. However, with the front
continuing to sag south, by 00z, will expect that most of the
showers and thunderstorms will be done. We should begin to see some
clearing overnight as the moisture pushes south.

(7/29)Friday and (7/30)Saturday...dry weather will be expected as
high pressure drops into the Great Lakes region and sits over the
region during the weekend. Will be expecting clear skies and light

Saturday night through Wednesday...

While models show a shortwave passing over the Great Lakes region
through the weekend, high pressure lingers at the surface in
Ontario. This will keep pop chances small for the extended period.
Temperatures will be on a steady increase as ridging builds back
into the region again on Monday. 850mb temps will range from 16 to
18c, bringing another round of above average temperatures with highs
in the mid to upper 80s by Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 143 AM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Mainly VFR.

Cooler/drier air will slowly filter south into northern lower MI
today. Some -shra will be seen in a few spots today, especially
this morning, falling mostly from a mid-cloud deck. Present mvfr
deck over TVC not expected to persist.

North winds will approach 10kt today.


Issued at 348 PM EDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Weak cold front will slowly sag south tonight, swinging the
winds around to northwest to north in the process. Winds will remain
light tonight, although may become briefly gusty in any thunderstorm
activity. North to northeast winds expected Thursday and Thursday
night, at times a bit gusty, but should remain below SCA criteria.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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