Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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544
FXUS63 KAPX 211949
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
349 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Monday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Weather Impacts through Monday: None expected.

Synoptic pattern:  Mid level trough over the NE portion of the
country will provide cooler air to the area tonight.  As trough axis
pivots NE by Monday, flow aloft will become zonal.  This will allow
warmer air to overspread region once again early this week.

Tonight:  Low level cyclonic flow will slowly loosen it`s grid on
northern Michigan tonight, as surface ridge axis currently over
Upper Mississippi Valley shifts east to a position directly over
Lower Michigan by 12Z Monday.  Mid level troughing will slowly
diminish.  However, the coolest 850 mb air (+6-7C) will still move
across the Great Lakes through the night.  This cool air - together
with daytime warming - has helped generate spotty showers this
afternoon (mainly across parts of northern Lower).  Expect these
isolated/scattered showers to slowly diminish through the evening,
though continued cool 850 mb air may cause clouds downwind of the
lakes to be a bit more stubborn than expected.  Lows tonight will
fall in the upper 40s inland to the 50s near the big lakes.

Though drier air will move in tonight, recent rainfall and lack of a
really significant push of lower dew point air, may allow some
patchy fog and/or low clouds late.  Confidence is low, and won`t
explicitly include in forecast at this time.

Monday:  Looks like a nice day.  As aforementioned surface ridge
moves east, winds will become southwest.  However, dew points around
50 coupled with highs in the 70s will make for a very comfortable
day.  Look for some midday CU over inland areas and perhaps some WAA
mid-upper clouds across far northern Lower and eastern Upper
Michigan.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Monday night through Wednesday...can be summarized as typical late
summer across northern Michigan...complete with warm temperatures
and increasing surface dew points along with chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

Currently...its looking like the only dry time through the forecast
period will be Tuesday and Tuesday night...as the large area of high
pressure which settled into the Great Lakes to begin the work
week slowly exits east into the mid Atlantic. Expect well above
normal temperatures across the forecast area Tuesday afternoon as
mid lvl temps warm to 16c in advance of an approaching Plains
storm system. This will help warm daytime temps back into the mid
80s as we head into the final week of August.

However...the chances for showers and thunderstorms begin to
quickly increase across the nrn lakes Wednesday...as the Plains
system pushes into the wrn Great Lakes. Mid lvl mstr increases
quickly in advance of the approaching feature...as 850mb dew
points increase to nearly 14c while surface dwpts increase into
the mid 60s. Mid and upper lvl qvectors showing only limited or
weak forcing associated with approaching frontal boundary acrs nrn
Mi Wednesday and Wednesday night...with no additional support in
the mid and upper lvls until Thursday. However 850/700mb lapse
rates 5.5 to 6 c/km...Cape values over 1500 j/kg and lifted index
around -4c show conditions unstable enough for the continued
mention of showers and thunderstorms over northern Michigan
through Wednesday evening. Currently thinking the main threat with
the convection Wednesday over the cwa will be confined to training
thunderstorms and heavy rain...as soundings show PWAT values over
1.5 inch...K index near 35 and mainly unidirectional southwest
winds for the sfc through 500mb.

Remainder of forecast (Wednesday Night through Sunday)...A well
defined shortwave passing to our north in the Wednesday/Thursday
timeframe will bring the best chance for rain through the extended
period. Another, weaker, shortwave could bring some more scattered
showers towards the beginning of next week, but it looks as though
the bulk of that will remain to our south. After the rain clears
out, high pressure building into the region will bring quiet
weather into the beginning of next week. Temperatures will be a
bit cooler than the 80s we have been seeing, but will still be
running above normal in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Gusty W-NW breezes will continue through the afternoon across
northern Michigan as cooler air mass overspreads region. Spotty
lake enhanced rain showers also expected area-wide into early
evening, with just a small chance for thunder vicinity of TVC/MBL
TAF sites. 4-6kft ceilings area-wide will scatter out tonight
with approach of weak surface ridge. Monday will see plenty of sun
with only scattered CU and perhaps some patchy high level clouds
by afternoon. Light winds tonight will become light SW Monday as
surface ridges moves east of the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Though plenty of instability remains over the Great Lakes late
this afternoon, Gale force wind gusts have been hard to come by
past several hours. Perhaps not surprising, as pressure gradient
and cyclonic flow loosen. As a result, all Gale Warnings have
been canceled. Still, with cooler air coming over the lakes
tonight, expect Small Craft conditions to persist area-wide
through at least the evening. Mariners can expect fine weather for
Monday.

&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ016>020-025-031.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 1 AM EDT Monday for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 1 AM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 1 AM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BBS
LONG TERM...SWR/ALM
AVIATION...BBS
MARINE...BBS



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