Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 271048
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
648 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND...IS IN STORE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. SHOWERS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...ANOTHER DAY OF NEARLY PERFECT WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POSSIBILITIES: NONE EXPECTED...EXCEPT POSSIBLE
PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT.

SAME OLD STORY FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT CONTINUING TO PROVIDE MORE AWESOME EARLY AUTUMN
CONDITIONS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF PESKY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG THIS MORNING...THE BALANCE OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SUNNY AND WARM. HIGHS TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY (PERHAPS EVEN A
DEGREE OR SO WARMER)...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80.
MORE PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT (POSSIBLY EVEN LOCALLY DENSE) AS
NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...GRADUALLY BECOMING COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL NORTHERN LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SUMMARY/FORECAST: LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY TROUGH-RIDGE SETUP...WITH BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD WITH TIME.  THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
GRADUAL WARMING OF THE TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES INCREASINGLY MOVING ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  THERE IS
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREEMENT THAT AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THAT THE THE UPSTREAM
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US WILL CUTOFF...ALLOWING PACIFIC
ENERGY TO RIDE OVER IT AND BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE EASTERN
RIDGE...AT LEAST FOR A TIME.  THIS CUTOFF LOW THEN GETS KICKED EAST
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH RELOADS OVER WESTERN CANADA...WITH THIS
MOBILE TROUGH AMPLIFYING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FOR A BRIEF TIME
BEFORE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH NEARS FROM THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY BRINGS
LOWERING HEIGHTS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NOAM.

PATTERN IMPLICATIONS: WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD BREAKING
DOWN...CERTAINLY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY MOVE LOWER...WITH
THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK BEING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING THIS AIRMASS CHANGE.  BEYOND
THIS...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE EJECTING WESTERN CUTOFF...WHICH
CERTAINLY PROMISES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...BUT ALSO ANOTHER
CHANCE AT SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF IT.

MODEL AGREEMENT/CONFIDENCE: PATTERN EVOLUTION AGREEMENT IS QUITE
STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STILL RESPECTABLE THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...A CONSENSUS FORECAST WILL PROVIDE A
GOOD STARTING POINT FOR THIS PACKAGE.

MIDDLE RANGE /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/:

SUNDAY: IMPRESSIVE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LOSE ITS GRIP OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS WE BRING
THE WEEKEND TO A CLOSE...BUT EXPECT THAT WE WILL SQUEAK OUT ONE MORE
BEAUTIFUL EARLY FALL DAY.  APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE
NORTH PROMISES AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS /PARTICULARLY
EASTERN UPPER/ AS THE LLEVELS MOISTEN...BUT OTHERWISE A MILD AND DRY
DAY IS IN STORE WITH NEARLY STAGNANT T9S PROVIDING FOR ANOTHER DAY
IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY: SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH...IN TANDEM WITH A SHARPENING NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  GGEM/ECMWF/NAM SUPPORT A SHARPER
WAVE AND THUS A LARGER PRECIPITATION RESPONSE GIVEN IMPROVED QG
FORCING AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS...AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS THIS
SOLUTION ESP GIVEN RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE ALSO HAD A MUCH SHARPER
FEATURE.  INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH A
CONTINUED WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SUGGEST A CONDITIONAL
DENSE FOG THREAT /MOISTURE INCREASING WITH HEIGHT/ SUNDAY NIGHT IF
WE CAN MAINTAIN CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LONG ENOUGH. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE IS RATHER ROBUST WITH PWATS > 1 INCH WITH
850 MB DEWPOINTS MOVING TO 10C JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AGREE WITH
INHERITED LIKELY POPS AND HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...
PRIMARILY TO BRING CHANCES INTO EASTERN UPPER BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY
WITH POPS LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS WAVE CONTINUES TO SLOW
AS IT CUTS OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES. ALSO REALLY LIKE INHERITED
TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION WHICH AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF M-55 TO MAKE A
RUN AT 70...WITH EASTERN UPPER TRAPPED BENEATH CLOUDS/SHRAS EARLIER
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60.  TEMPS FALL INTO THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT AS
SHALLOW COLD DOME SPILLS OVERHEAD.

TUESDAY: PATTERN RECOGNITION OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH SHALLOW NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND TRAPPED
LLEVEL MOISTURE INDICATING A COOL AND PERHAPS DRIZZLY DAY MAY BE IN
STORE ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
LOWER. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS AND SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM THIS IDEA...WITH HIGHS LIKELY
NEAR 60 FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UPPER 50S A GOOD BET FOR AREAS
ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST AS WELL AS INLAND SPOTS LIKE GLR.  EXPECT
CLEARING TO COME VERY SLOWLY...WITH STRATUS ISSUES LIKELY LINGERING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG RANGE /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/:

MODERATING TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WESTERN
TROUGH EJECTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER NEW ENGLAND ONCE
AGAIN ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ENVELOP THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
MID LEVEL RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY WILL RESTRICT MIXING
/AND THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES/...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BRINGING A
SEASONABLE DAY.  AS WE END THE FORECAST PERIOD THURSDAY/FRIDAY...LOW
PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION.  THIS PROMISES ANOTHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY /AND
POSSIBLY EVEN FRIDAY/ WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN /THUNDER?/
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...QUIET OUTSIDE OF GROUND FOG CONCERNS...

SUMMARY:  HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE COMING TAF PERIOD WITH GOOD FLYING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONTINUED MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG.

RESTRICTIONS: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE GROUND
FOG CONCERNS TONIGHT.  FOG WAS LESS PERVASIVE OVERNIGHT LAST
NIGHT...BUT LOOKING DOWNSTATE /WHERE TONIGHTS AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE
FROM/...THERE IS PLENTY OF PATCHY FOG AND SOME OF IT DENSE.
THUS...DESPITE A LESS FOGGY NIGHT LAST NIGHT...SEE LITTLE REASON
TO STRAY FORM THE IDEA OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN BY
LATE EVENING AT MBL-PLN-APN. DO EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF IFR /AND
LIKELY LIFR/...BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ADD THIS TEMPORAL DETAIL
AS WE NEAR TONIGHT AND CONFIDENCE IN TIMING GROWS.

WINDS: CALM WINDS WILL TRANSITION INTO LOCAL LAKE BREEZES 5-10KTS
FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING BACK TO CALM /LOCAL DRAINAGE
BREEZE AT MBL/ TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH VERY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE WATERS. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SINKS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTH AND THEN
NORTHEASTERLY FOR TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN FOR MIDDLE
AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.

HEADLINES: HEADLINE-FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THE NEXT /SMALL/ THREAT OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS COMING ON
MONDAY AS A SHARP COLD FRONT SINKS THROUGH THE REGION WITH
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS SHIFTING NORTHERLY BEFORE SUBSIDING ON
TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS: NO THREAT THROUGH THROUGH THE MARINE FORECAST
PERIOD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...ARNOTT





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