Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 051942
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
342 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGE: FOG NEAR LAKE HURON IN N LOWER, AND IN E UPPER

OVERVIEW...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE/COLD
FRONT IS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS HAS LEAD TO RETURN FLOW IN THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THAT IS JUST GETTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THIS IS BRINGING A RISE IN THE THE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TODAY.
ALTHOUGH THE SMOKE ALOFT LOOKS TO BE OBSCURING THE SFC SO THAT WE
DON`T ACHIEVE OUR FULL HEATING POTENTIAL (LACK OF SUNSHINE).

TONIGHT...AS THE RETURN FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES,
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE REGION. THE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, TO THE POINT WHERE THE DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN THE WATER TEMPERATURES IN SOME
AREAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO FOG OVERNIGHT IN NE LOWER ALONG LAKE HURON
AND IN E UPPER NEAR LAKE HURON AND LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH THE WIND
FLOW, THE CONFIDENCE THAT IT IS AREAS OF OR PATCHY FOG IS THE
QUESTION, AND WHERE THE QUANDARY IS. NOT SURE THAT A LOT OF THE FOG
GETS ASHORE, OR WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE INLAND MUCH AS THE AIR WILL
BE A LITTLE DRIER INLAND, AND WITH THE WIND, WILL PROBABLY MIX IT
OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  DANGEROUS SWIM CONDITIONS ON LAKE
MICHIGAN BEACHES MONDAY. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN
SEABOARD WILL PROVIDE NRN MI WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF
SUMMER WARMTH/HUMIDITY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SWING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY. IT/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT ON TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE NRN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

MONDAY...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY MORNING AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH SAID COLD FRONT...AND ALL AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM
AND ADDED HUMIDITY...MID LEVEL WARMING WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF INSTABILITY. LOOK FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...CONTINUED
HAZINESS...ALONG WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AREA-WIDE /SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 90 WILL BE POSSIBLE/.

WITH S/SW BREEZES GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH MONDAY...DANGEROUS SWIM
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES PARTICULARLY
WHERE WINDS ARE MOST ONSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG
US-2 IN ERN UPPER AND ACROSS SOME PARTS OF NW LOWER.

MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING...THE GENERAL
TREND REMAINS FOR AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOST OF NRN
MI...LIKELY NOT ARRIVING IN NW LOWER AND E UPPER UNTIL MID-LATE
EVENING AND OTHER AREAS THEREAFTER. WITH PWATS RISING TO NEAR 2
INCHES...MUCAPES OVER 1K J/KG...AND 500 MB WINDS AROUND 35 KTS...
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS /PER SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK/ BUT WITH
BEST POCKET OF RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION FORCING APPEARING TO LIFT NE
INTO ONTARIO /COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE WAVE RIDING ALONG FRONT/
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER NOT LIKELY.

TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING NRN MI 12Z
TUE...AND HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT ANY RESIDUAL
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
MORNING OVER ERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE AS
A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES IN. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 60S TO LOW
70S /SOME 15-20F COOLER THAN HIGHS ON MONDAY/.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VERY PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TUES NIGHT...WITH MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES WED. LOWS TUES NIGHT IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WITH HIGHS ON
WED 70-75.&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO OUR SOUTH IN MOST GUIDANCE NOW...IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING. DESPITE BLENDED GUIDANCE WANTING TO PUT IN SOME
LOW CHANCE POPS...I LIKE THE IDEA IN THE INHERITED FORECAST OF
THINGS STAYING DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND WILL LIKEWISE DO THE
SAME. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING STRONG RIDGING OUT
WEST...AMPLIFYING THE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND TAKING
THE ENHANCED VORTICITY AND RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF US. ON THE OTHER
END OF THE SPECTRUM...AMERICAN GUIDANCE IS GOING WITH A MUCH MORE
ZONAL FLOW...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TO PICK UP LEE TROUGHING
AND MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BRING CHANCES OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. I THINK THE TRUTH MAY LIE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE...A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED THAN AMERICAN GUIDANCE BUT A BIT MORE
ZONAL THAN THE EURO. THIS WOULD TAKE THE TRACK A BIT SOUTH OF WHERE
AMERICAN GUIDANCE IS GOING...WITH BETTER INSTABILITIES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTH BUT STILL SOME RAIN FOR US. PLACEMENT FOR
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN VERY ERRATIC OVER THE PAST FOUR RUNS...WOULD
LIKE TO SEE A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY TO HELP IMPROVE CONFIDENCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL TO START
THE PERIOD...TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WILL BE CONTINUING VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING. THE REST OF
THE NIGHT IS THE MAIN CONCERN AS THE MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES
WITH PATCHY FOG, AND LOWERING THE VISIBILITY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT
PLN AND APN. BASED ON APN OBS FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE, IFR
CONDITIONS AREN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER, ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE STATE (I.E. TVC AND MBL) THE SOUTH FLOW USUALLY DOWNSLOPES
INTO THOSE AREAS, AND KEEPS THE VSBYS VFR.

OF COURSE, ONCE WE GET PAST 12Z, THEN THE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
AND THE FOG WILL NO LONGER BE A CONCERN, AND WE`LL BE BACK TO VFR
EVERYWHERE. ALTHOUGH EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS TO BEGIN BY THE EARLY
PART OF THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/COLD FRONT IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE BUILDING WAVES OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES, WHICH IN TURN WILL BUILD THE WAVES. THIS WILL BRING
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS AND WAVES TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE, WITH THE
MAIN CONCERNS BEING FROM MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE, AND FOR THE
AREA WEST OF THE MACKINAC BRIDGE TO SEUL CHOIX POINT. IN LAKE
HURON, THE WINDS WILL BE A BIT LOWER, AND THE WAVES WON`T HAVE THE
FETCH FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFTS. MONDAY
NIGHT, WE SHOULD SEE THE WIND DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO SLACKEN AS THE FRONT PASSES. THE WINDS WILL VEER NW BY TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT THE HIGH BUILDS IN QUICKLY DURING THE DAY, KEEPING
THE GRADIENT SLACK AND THE WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MIZ015-020-025-031.

LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ341-345-346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JSL



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