Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 311844
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
244 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...AREAS OF FROST...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING INTO QUEBEC WHILE LOW
PRESSURE/TROUGHING WORKS UP THE EASTERN CONUS. NRN MICHIGAN
REMAINS STUCK BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINGING BRISK NE WINDS. EARLIER SHALLOW CUMULUS
COMPLETELY MIXED OUT...AND WE ARE JUST WAITING ON THE HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUD TO SLOWLY WORK IT`S WAY OUT OF THE SE COUNTIES...SAGINAW BAY
AREA. A NICE WEDGE OF DEEPER/DRIER AIR CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WORK IN
OVER NRN MICHIGAN...WITH SOME ADDED DARKENING (DRYING) SEEN ON
LATEST WV IMAGERY. UPSTREAM...BAND OF INCREASED HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHING...WAS ERODING ON THE LEADING
EDGE AS IT WORKED EASTWARD.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH QUEBEC WHILE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WE WILL LOSE THE GUSTINESS OF THE
NE WIND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. MANY AREAS
WILL SEE CALM CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
LAYS OUT ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. EXPOSED
AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE AT LEAST SOME 3-5MPH...THIS WILL LIMIT
AND/OR PREVENT ANY FROST FROM DEVELOPING BY KEEPING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE HOWEVER...THE LOW
LYING AREAS WILL GO CALM AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO FROST AND
FREEZE LEVELS...28-34F WILL BE QUITE COMMON. THE HANG UP HERE ARE
THOSE INCREASED HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS. DO BELIEVE THEY WILL ARRIVE
LATER TONIGHT...AND THAT COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A BIT MORE.
SEEING BETTER DRYING ON WV IMAGERY AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE A LONGER
PERIOD OF CLEAR INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THOUGH...THAT PRECAUTIONS NEED TO BE MADE
CONCERNING PROTECTING SENSITIVE VEGETATION. THAT WOULD BE THE
SAFER CALL. PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY IN THOSE LOWER LYING
AREAS...THE AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST AND DAMAGING
TEMPERATURES TO VEGETATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...EARLY MORNING MID/HIGH CLOUDS LOOK TO BE THE ONLY FORECAST
ISSUE THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO...BECOMING
CENTERED OVERHEAD ALLOWING ONGOING DRYING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN TO
CONTINUE AND ANY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE
MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA (RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 20-30% ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER)
...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 60S...LOW END
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS A POSSIBILITY...ALTHOUGH THE RECENT
ABUNDANCE OF RAINFALL MAY HELP.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MONDAY NIGHT`S FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...A WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE AND THE ABILITY FOR
WINDS TO DECOUPLE...CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 30S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE A RATHER PICTURE PERFECT EARLY
JUNE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT...PROVIDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND ANOTHER DAY OF WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE LOW-MIDDLE 70S AWAY FROM THE BIG LAKES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP ABATE FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF A FEW OF THE TYPICAL
COOLER SPOTS FELL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD...BRINGING
ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDER POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE STORY HERE IS THAT MODEL TRENDS ARE BACKING
OFF RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE DEEPENED AS IT MOVED OVER THE LAKES
WITH A MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT. NOW HOWEVER...THE EURO HINTS AT A
WEAK MIDWESTERN HIGH FORMING...TO PUSH THE LOW FURTHER NORTH...AND
WASHING OUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO A BROAD DISTURBANCE THAT
SHOULD STILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NOT IMPRESSED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AT ALL...THINKING WE`LL STAY DRY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL BEING LATE FRIDAY AND
OVERNIGHT. ALSO NOT IMPRESSED WITH CONVECTIVE SUPPORT FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 80 AND AT LEAST SOME
FORCING PRESENT...WILL KEEP MENTION OF IT IN THE GRIDS. DRY AIR
QUICKLY TAKES BACK OVER FOR THE BALANCE OF SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL INTO FRIDAY...BUT THEN WITH THE
PASSING OF AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM...MORE SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
READINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...VFR...

GUSTY NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS NRN
MICHIGAN REMAINS TUCKED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING BY TO OUR NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL RELAX
THROUGH EVENING...LIKELY GOING NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR WITH JUST SOME INCREASED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN NE MONDAY...BUT NOT GUSTY...WHILE ALSO TENDING TO GO
ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

CHOPPY WAVES AND GUSTY NE WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR A HANDFUL OF
NEARSHORE WATERS...FROM APN SOUTH....AND ALSO FOR FUNNELING WINDS
THROUGH THE MANITOU ISLANDS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK ACROSS LAKE
HURON SOUTH OF STURGEON POINT. LAKE SUPERIOR IS CLOSER TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHTEST WINDS THERE. STILL MORE OF A NE WIND FOR
MONDAY...BUT LIGHTER. THESE WINDS WILL TEND TO WANT TO TURN
ONSHORE IN MOST AREAS. MORE LIGHT WINDS TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MIZ016>019-021>024-027>029-032>034.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ024-
     030-036-042.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MIZ008-015-025-026-030-031-035-036.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ348-349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...GILLEN
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD


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