Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 202332

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
632 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

...Rain and Snow Showers Tuesday...

High Impact Weather Potential...Gusty winds tonight and snow
showers Tuesday afternoon.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Upper ridge over the north central U.S.
bring a rare precipitation- free day to northern Michigan. That
will change though, as another potent upper low tracks from
western Canada to near Lake Superior Tuesday.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Shortwave over the Dakotas moves across
MI tonight but lacks moisture this far south to bring
precipitation. 50kt+ LLJ overspreads the region this afternoon,
which will lead to Gales on some of the lakes tonight and Tuesday.
Surface low over Saskatchewan tracks into Lake Superior tonight
and then northern Quebec Tuesday night. This will drag a cold
front through the region Thursday afternoon. Again not much
moisture along/ahead of the front, but it does usher in colder
air. Delta T`s above 20C by 00Z Wednesday in NW flow. BUFKIT
soundings show precipitation should be mainly snow, but could be
some rain or mix early in the afternoon.


.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

Tuesday Night through Thursday...

...Seasonably cool with some sun and light snow through mid week...

High Impact Weather Potential: significant northwest flow lake snow
possible Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...An upper trough which dropped south into
the Great Lakes earlier in the day will slowly exit east into the
north Atlantic by Thursday. Mid level temperatures in this 500mb
flow will warm from around -14c Wednesday to between -4c and -6c.
This pattern will generate below normal afternoon temps around 30
degrees across northern Michigan Wednesday, while warming to nearly
seasonal daytime highs in the mid 30s for Thursday. At the surface,
a fairly active pattern is setting up across the region. A clipper
moving over Ontario will exit northeast into Quebec Tuesday night,
while a narrow area of high pressure slides across the upper Midwest
and Great Lakes Wednesday. A second clipper then pushes quickly
across the Great Lakes Thursday. Snowfall will be limited across
northern Michigan through much of the period. However, the chance
for widespread significant accumulation is possible Tuesday night in
favored northwest flow snow belts as lake influences increase. 850mb
temps drop to -14c around 00z Wed with inversions heights deepening
to around 6500 ft through 12z Wednesday. Model soundings show
significant sfc based moisture extending up to temps between -12c
and -15c increasing the chances for good snow flake production.
Limiting factors, Sfc-850mb winds meander some through the period
though remain largely from the northwest, while an extremely dry
airmass exists above the inversion.

Overall, will maintain mainly dry conds across northern Michigan
through much of the forecast period, with the best chance for snow
Tuesday night. Based off current trends, lake snow processes could
be sufficient enough for significant snows in the Lake Michigan
snowbelts Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 304 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

High impact weather potential: Mixed rain and snow Friday,
transitioning to snow by Sunday.

At upper levels, nearly zonal 500mb flow develops over the Great
Lakes Friday, before broad 500mb trough settles back over the Great
Lakes and ern third of the country for the weekend. 850mb temps
fluctuate from around +8c Friday before falling back to between -12c
and -14c for the weekend in developing upper trough. This will
generate above normal temperatures in the upper 30s across nrn
Michigan Friday and Saturday, with below normal temps in the upper
20s to around 30 degrees Sunday and Monday.

At the surface, a clipper passes north of the Great Lakes Friday,
before exiting northeast Saturday, while an area of high pressure
builds into the Upper Midwest Sunday and Monday. This pattern would
generate mainly rain over nrn Michigan Friday and into Saturday with
warm air in place, with a wintry mix Saturday night and snow Sunday
as colder air filters back into the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 631 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

VFR with LLWS into Tuesday morning. MVFR cigs Tue afternoon.

Strong low pressure is in far western Ontario, with strengthening
sw winds just off the surface. Conditions are and will remain VFR
tonight and into Tue morning. A cold front will cross the are
Tuesday, and cigs will lower behind it to MVFR in the afternoon.
Lake effect showers will break out in some areas, TVC in

Southerly surface winds tonight, gusty at times. Winds are
cranking just off the surface, so LLWS into Tuesday morning. Winds
will become gustier Tuesday while veering w and nw.


Issued at 304 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

Gales expected later this afternoon into Tuesday. Strong winds are
moving into the region this afternoon with gusts of +40kts
possible overnight on Lake Michigan. The strong winds and possible
gales will continue over the Great Lakes through early Wednesday.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST Wednesday for LHZ345>349.
LM...GALE WARNING until 11 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ321-322.


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