Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KAPX 272311
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
711 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AREA OF
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH VORT OVER REGION NOW. COLD FRONT
ENTERING WESTERN SIDE OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. VORT MAX
CURRENTLY NEAR S LAKE MICHIGAN AND FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE STEADY RAIN/DRIZZLE EXITING. DRIER
AIR MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL CLEAR OUT SKIES BY MORNING...WHILE
FOG DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...WARMER WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR NORTH WITH MOVE BY TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION
(HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A FEW AROUND 80 READINGS FAR SOUTH). A
LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL LEAD TO LAKE BREEZE FORMATIONS AND THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY RESULT IN A FEW POPUP SHOWERS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING
INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY MAY LEAD
TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DUE TO INCREASED WIND FIELDS (0-6KM
BULK SHEAR 40 TO 45 KNOTS) AND THE REGION IS ON THE TAIL END OF
RR/QUAD OF A 100 KNOT JET. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DECENT DAYTIME
HEATING (HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S) YIELDS A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE...THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AN
UNIMPRESSIVE 5C/KM OR SO. LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING LIKELY PROLONGING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LOOK TO
FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS TIME
PERIOD...IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO BE OVER SATURDAY NIGHT/ SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH THE FRONTS
PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND. AFTER THE
FRONT HAS PASSED HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WARM UP AGAIN. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING UNTIL THE END OF THE
FORECAST WITH THE NEXT INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN BEING POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS ACROSS FAR NRN AND NE LWR
MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT... OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU
THURSDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND THEN SHIFTS
EAST OF MICHIGAN BY 00Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
THIS EVENING...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AT AROUND 10 KTS
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

WINDS CONSIDERABLY LESS GUSTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOW
CLOUDS/RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL MOVE OUT THIS EVENING. EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG TO FORM OVER THE WATER.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...KJF


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.