Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 171736

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
136 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Issued at 1024 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Complex and challenging weather scenario taking shape over the
next 24 hours. Initial shortwave with batch of strong-severe
storms pushing through the area currently, moving along and just
north of a warm frontal boundary that is positioned across
southwest parts of the area. Despite minimal surface based
instability, steep mid level lapse rates and impressive shear
(60kts 0-6km) have resulted in a few large hail reports and some
gusty winds. Think things will settle down quite a bit for the
afternoon hours, as warm front continues to inch northward and
much of northern Michigan gets stuck in the soup of lower clouds
and areas of fog.  There may be a few pop up showers or a
thunderstorm this afternoon, but think most areas will likely see
little if any precipitation after this morning shortwave.

Will likely see re-development of showers/storms late this
afternoon and evening over Wisconsin as deepening surface low
rides along quasi-stationary boundary toward upper Michigan. This
activity will slide east/northeast into northern Michigan during
the evening to early overnight hours, focused largely on areas
from the Tip of the Mitt into eastern upper. Still severe
potential with these storms, with supercell structure possible in
strongly sheared environment in the vicinity of sloped frontal
boundary. Will keep this mention in the HWO and graphics. Pressure
gradient also tightening this evening, supporting increasing wind
gusts from the southwest. May get close to wind advisory criteria
along the coast of Lake Michigan and Lake Superior later tonight.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

...Active weather over the next 24 hours...

High impact weather potential: Stronger storms possible across
northern Michigan this morning and again tonight.

Overview: Progressive and highly energetic flow pattern remains
in place across the CONUS, with subtle ridging across the Great
Lakes, a strong short wave impulse lifting out of the upper
Midwest into Canada, and very energetic wave/strong upper jet
core punching into the central Rockies. Meanwhile. a complex
surface pattern spans central NOAM. Surface low pressure is
located over south-central Canada with a cold front stretching
into the central plains and warm front arcing from the Dakotas
through the Midwest and lower lakes region. Secondary low pressure
is located over Kansas. Short wave forcing in concert with strong
warm/theta-e advection north of the warm front has produced a
batch of showers/storms (MCS wannabe) in the upper Midwest
overnight that will be pushing across northern Michigan this
morning. Here at home, strengthening low level southerly flow has
spread low level moisture/stratus and fog back into northern
Michigan overnight, while thicker mid and high cloud cover is also
overspreading the region from the west.

Today: Strong warm advection (fed by a 40 to 50 knot LLJ) and
short wave forcing will be crossing through northern Michigan this
morning and push our initial batch of showers and some thunderstorms
through the CWA, with pops then trailing off through the afternoon
hours. Some fairly impressive kinematics will accompany this first
batch of convection with 40 to 60 knots 0-6km bulk shear values
along with steeper lapse rates aloft and some modest elevated
instability. So despite abundant stratus/fog and a stable boundary
layer, certainly cannot rule out a few stronger/organized storms
this morning, evidenced by a few stronger/severe cells now
ongoing in the western U.P.

After our batch of showers/storms this morning, cloudy skies will
be the rule for much of the day as the warm front advances up into
the U.P. this afternoon. Possible we see some south-north thinning/
clearing of the cloud cover in the warm sector this afternoon
with high bust potential for max temp forecasts particularly
across out southern counties. Where stratus persists temps will be
struggle through the 60s to around 70. But any decent sunshine
will push temps into the 70s, with 80s anticipated downstate.

Tonight: Next short wave impulse expected to advance through the
upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes region later tonight into
Tuesday morning, accompanied by an impressive upper jet streak
punching into the Great Lakes. Resulting surface low spins up
quickly in the Midwest and will track through upper Michigan
during the overnight hours. Strongest QG-forcing for ascent once
again slides across northern Wisconsin and northern Michigan,
particularly across the U.P., where another batch of showers/storms
will take aim this evening and overnight. Very impressive deep
layer shear develops across northern Michigan with 0-6km bulk
shear values in excess of 80 knots by morning along with a
moderate amount of elevated instability punching across the
region overnight. Once again, stable lower layers will likely
remain a limiting factor to well organized severe weather. But any
well organized storms will present a hail threat and potentially a
low end wind threat.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 353 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

(10/18)Tuesday...The frontal passage for the day looks rather
innocuous as the sfc low moves northeast of Lake Superior by 12z in
the morning. By 18z, the front and sfc trough is through the
forecast area, with the 850 mb temperatures down to around +6c in
the afternoon. With the lake temperatures still around 16c  or so
the instability wont` be anything to produce much, but clouds. The
clouds will probably even be hard to produce as the 850 mb moisture
and the 700-500 mb layer rh will be below 50% and and 20%
respectively through the day. The cold advection looks rather weak
overnight with the 850 mb temperatures falling only to +4C by 12z.
Although, it looks, like lower clouds will move into the region as
the moisture at 850 mb begins to moves in underneath the rrq of the
500 mb 70 knot jet streak.

(10/19)Wednesday...The better cold air advection begins to take
place in the morning as the tail 500 mb jet streak is south of the
forecast area, and puts us in the LRQ of the jet with would have
subsidence. 850 mb temperatures don`t go very far by 00z, with
values around +4c. and really temperatures don`t fall that much
farther overnight with the 0c line getting into C Upper by 12z. So
the expectation will be that there may be some rain from showers
along the front, but for the most part no LE rain will be expected.

Extended (Thursday through Sunday)...However, that begins to change
on Thursday as the cold air begins to get pushed into the forecast
area from the sfc high beginning to move across James Bay, and the
500 mb shortwave trough. Friday, the models divide the solutions
between each other with the ECMWF continuing be more progressive
than the GFS that wants to force energy down the backside of the
trough, and digging the trough into the SE US. This results in a cut
off in the Gulf Coast States. However, the latest runs of the models
seem to show that the cut off will do little influence the evolution
of the rain over the Upper Great Lakes, unlike yesterday`s runs. if
this is the case, then the 500 mb ridge begins to build in the
center of the country which is the expected idea on the longer range
models for the 8-14 day outlooks with above normal temperatures and


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

MVFR TO IFR conditions through the afternoon hours as a warm front
slowly lifts northward through lower Michigan. However, some
south to north thinning to the cloud cover may materialize later
this afternoon into the evening, with some areas (particularly MBL
and TVC) possibly going VFR.

Tonight, another round of showers and storms will develop across
far northern lower Michigan, impacting areas mainly north of M-72.
MVFR to VFR conditions at the terminals tonight. A cold front
works through the area Tuesday morning, bringing cigs back into the
MVFR category for a time. Winds will become quite gusty tonight
into Tuesday morning, with gusts of 25+ kts possible. LLWS will
develop as well, with a corridor of southwest winds around 2k of
50-60kts up the spine of Lake Michigan. Cigs improving during the
day on Tuesday, with winds gradually becoming less gusty.


Issued at 353 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Gustier winds will be found on the lakes today through Tuesday as
a warm front lifts up through the region today, followed by a deep
area of low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes tonight.
Small craft advisory conditions a sure bet through Tuesday, and
there may be a brief period of near gale force gusts on Lake
Michigan overnight tonight.

Winds gradually diminish through the day Tuesday and especially
Tuesday night.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321-322.



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