Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 251405
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1005 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

High pressure continues to build into Northern Michigan this
morning. Low level moisture and clouds are quickly mixing
out...but a rather thick layer of mid cloud remains over most of
Michigan and Eastern Wisconsin along either side of the cold front
current over our SE CWA. The front will continue to slowly slide
SE away from our area thru the afternoon. Aside from small chances
of a few showers in our far SE CWA over the next few hours...the
vast majority of our area will remain dry this afternoon with a
gradual diminish in cloud cover from NW to SE as the front and
associated moisture slips away. Expect another warm and humid day
as afternoon highs climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 408 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

High impact weather potential: Maybe some showers/storms around
Saginaw Bay. Severe weather not expected.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

An upper level trough was working across The Dakotas and western
Ontario early this morning, while sfc low pressure was over eastern
Ontario. A cold front draped from this low down through nrn
Michigan, while another cold front/sfc trough extended westward
across Ontario. From a precipitation perspective, all is quiet
across our neck of the woods. The main wave was spitting out some
isolated/scattered light rains across Ontario, while stronger SW
flow aloft, channeled vorticity and LLJ action was working with
greater moisture and instability from the central plains through far
srn Lake Michigan, resulting in showers and thunderstorms. We did
have some spotty fog, dense in a few places, with patchy low lying
stratus which has had a tough time developing. Temperatures were
warm in the upper 60s and low 70s.

Heading through the day, the cold front will continue to press SE
of us, with the low levels drying with time. Whatever stratus and fog
are around at daybreak, will lift into a deck of cumulus across
mainly NE lower before mixing out later this afternoon. This will
leave just some higher level cloud which will also likely fade with
time. The channeled vorticity may work with the departing cold front
to produce some showers and storms near Saginaw Bay, but the trend
is for this batch of precipitation to shift south and most areas
will not see any rain today. That secondary cold front/sfc trough
will gradually slide south and toward eastern upper overnight. This
is not expected to be able to produce any precipitation, just some
extra clouds.

Highs today in the upper 70s to lower half of the 80s. Lows tonight
in the middle to upper 50s in cool air advection.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 408 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

High Impact Weather: Thunderstorms Saturday/Saturday night.

(8/26)Friday...The day looks dry, but there are a few causes for
concern in E Upper between 15z and 21z. A 500 mb jet streak`s RRQ
sinks into Upper Michigan with 850 mb moisture (RH>70%) along the
baroclinic zone. And with the 850 mb temperatures falling to around
+8C (water temperatures are around 22C) we have enough low level
instabilty and upward motion to warrant some concern. The GFS and
ECMWF show some light precipitation in W/C Upper. However with all
of the dry air in the sounding, and the limited MLCAPE (2 J/kg) will
leave the precipitation out. With the loss of the 500 mb jet streak
and most sfc based instability, the night looks to be dry.

(8/27)Saturday...The ECMWF has sped up the speed of the next system
moves into the region with the warm front pushing north into the
forecast area by the afternoon. GFS is slower with this feature.
have sped up the speed of the system a bit, but have limited the
pops as the last system was again weaker than forecast. Will have to
revisit this as this system is beginning to look like the system
that went through last weekend, which had more rain. So will keep
the amounts light as well so as to not over promise too much at this
point.

Extended (Sunday through Wednesday)...Sunday and Monday look
relatively dry, except on the ECMWF which is slower with the system,
but it does dry out. Tuesday is a bit undecided as the models have a
couple of solutions with the baroclinic zone, and if it retreats or
not to the north and clears out the region. This also continues into
Wednesday. The ECMWF is dry and the GFS is wet. This isn`t
surprising that the predictability of the pattern dropped, as the
rather fast flow usually signals some sort of pattern change, and
the models are having a hard time developing some sort of consensus.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 647 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Outside of some brief IFR/MVFR VSBY/CIGS through mid morning, VFR
conditions are expected for the remainder of the TAF period.
Showers and storms will remain south of the airports with just
some high level clouds rolling through. Mostly clear skies
tonight.

Westerly winds behind a departing cold front will try and turn
more SW today, before coming in out of the NW later tonight as
another cold front crosses the region. Speeds will mainly be 10
kts or less.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 408 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

A cold front with a looser pressure gradient/lighter winds was
crossing nrn Michigan early this morning, and will press SE of all
nearshore waters this morning. Winds were shifting more westerly
behind this front, but will back more out of the S/SW this evening
as we await the next cold front that crosses through tonight. Winds
may touch advisory levels over portions of Lake Michigan at times
tonight, but confidence not high enough to put into the forecast
attm. High pressure settles in for Friday. The next system arrives
Saturday with winds increasing and becoming more southerly with
showers and storms possible.

&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
SHORT TERM...Dickson
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...Dickson
MARINE...Dickson



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