Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 131747
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
147 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SLOWLY LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME POSSIBLY
HEAVY...ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
EXITING SYSTEM...WILL CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN
MONDAY WHICH IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK AS WE SIT IN A LULL...AWAITING AN
EXPANDING AXIS OF PRECIP OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST THAT SHOULD MAKE A
RUN THIS FAR NORTH TOWARD EARLY EVENING. AS EXPECTED...CLOUD
TRENDS HAVE BEEN A REAL PAIN...WITH LOTS OF LOW STRATUS/FOG
WRAPPING AROUND THE LAKESHORES...WHILE SOME FILTERED SUN HAS
POPPED OUT IN A FEW LUCKY SPOTS. TEMPS ARE LITERALLY ALL OVER THE
PLACE...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH...
WITH ADDITIONAL FLUCTUATIONS LIKELY...PERHAPS EVEN NORTHERN AREAS
AS SOME OF THE LOWER STRATUS IS ERODING QUICKLY. READINGS MAY
STILL SNEAK WELL INTO THE 60S SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN ABSENT THE LONGEST...BUT I DOUBT MANY FOLKS WILL MIND A
COUPLE EXTRA DEGREES OVER THE CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 913 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

CHALLENGING FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. MORNING ANALYSIS PLACES A
LEAD SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS THE CWA RIGHT NOW...HELPING DRIVE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS OUT THROUGH NORTHEAST LOWER.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION IS NOTED ADVANCING THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (CENTERED NEAR CADILLAC AT 13Z)...WITH THIS
FEATURE EXPECTED TO ZIP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VISIBLE PICS SHOW SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS FEATURE...WITH LOW
CLOUDS/FOG THINNING AS PRECIP HAS ENDED...BUT WITH A QUICK RETURN
TO THICKER LOW STRATUS JUST IN ITS WAKE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
KICKS BACK NORTHWESTERLY. GIVEN THESE TRENDS...CONCERNED ABOUT
WHAT TO DO FOR TEMPS TODAY...AS SOME AREAS MAY WELL BREAK OUT INTO
FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF TIME.

ADDITIONAL RAIN TODAY: SHOULD CATCH A BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AS SHARP SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...LOWER STRATUS AND MOISTURE MAY WELL LEAD TO
SOME PERIODS OF DRIZZLE IN SPOTS. HOWEVER...WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORING UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AS THERE SHOULD BE A LARGE AXIS
OF EXPANDING PRECIP ACROSS IA/MO/NE/IL AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT AND DEEP MOISTURE IMPINGES ON A TIGHTENING
ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND VERY SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE HINTS...SUSPECT THIS ACTIVITY MAY TAKE UNTIL 00Z OR
EVEN JUST AFTER TO GET THIS FAR NORTH...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

FLOODING CONCERNS: MANY AREAS ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR PICKED UP A
GENERAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH A SHARP UPTICK IN
RIVER LEVELS NOTED (NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE ALREADY HIGH LEVELS).
DON`T THINK ENOUGH PRECIP HAS FALLEN FROM AN AREAL PERSPECTIVE TO
JUSTIFY WIDESPREAD FLOOD WARNINGS JUST YET...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF
1-2 INCHES TONIGHT WOULD DO THE TRICK. CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS
FOR THE MANISTEE AND RIFLE RIVERS ARE DOING JUST FINE...WITH
WEBCAMS SHOWING A RAPID RISE NEAR STERLING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS
THAT RIVER HAS TICKED ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

TEMPERATURES: IN SHORT...ALL BUT IMPOSSIBLE. TEMPS TO THE NORTH
ARE PROBABLY SET IN STONE AS READINGS ONLY SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
40S BENEATH PERSISTENT STRATUS AND SOME FOG. HOWEVER...IT IS
SOUTHERN AREAS THAT ARE PROBLEMATIC...AS IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO
SPIKE HIGHS INTO THE 60S GIVEN THE ALREADY WARM START IN THE
LOW/MID 50S CURRENTLY. DON`T WANT TO JUMP ON ANY TRENDS JUST
YET...BUT NAM/HRRR GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON PUSHING READINGS
TO EVEN NEAR 70 ACROSS GLADWIN/ARENAC COUNTIES. GIVEN UPSTREAM
THINNING CLOUD TRENDS...SUSPECT THAT IDEA HAS SOME MERIT BUT WILL
GIVE IT ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO TO SEE WHERE TRENDS TAKE US.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ISSUES WITH THOUGHTS OF CHANGING TO SNOW
IN PLACES VERY LATE TONIGHT...

IMPACTS: INCREASED FLOODING THREAT...ESPECIALLY LOWLAND AREAS NEAR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN NRN LOWER...AND ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR. THE
PRIMARY THREAT ARE FOR THE MANISTEE AND RIFLE RIVER BASINS.

CONFIDENCE: HIGH WITH RAIN OCCURRENCE...ESPECIALLY NRN LOWER. LOW TO
AVERAGE WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM MANISTEE
TO OSSINEKE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW
CWA LATE TONIGHT.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION:

UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SLOWLY THIS MORNING WITH SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE NRN STREAM ENERGY IS
DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. A MAIN SFC LOW PRESSURE
HAS BEEN DEVELOPING IN THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A COUPLE OF
WEAK CIRCULATIONS ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS STRETCHED NE THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN. A STRONG LLJ (50-60KTS) HAS BEEN SLOWLY VEERING WITH
TIME...BUT STILL USHERING/FEEDING 1.00"/1.50" PWAT AIR ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND RESULTING IN A NICE TRAINING ECHO SCENARIO WITH AREAS
JUST SOUTH OF US IN CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...SEEING COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF RAINFALL. ONE OF THE WEAKER SFC LOW AND MID LEVEL JET STREAK IS
NOW LIFTING THROUGH NW IL WITH RENEWED CONVECTION CROSSING QUICKLY
THROUGH NE ILLINOIS. THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
NORTHWARD...BUT ALL IN ALL...THINGS ARE QUIET AFTER RECEIVING 1-1.5"
OF RAINFALL IN THE SW CWA YESTERDAY EVENING.

THIS WEAKER SFC LOW WILL WANE WHILE ALSO TRACKING ACROSS THE FRONTAL
ZONE TODAY...THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC FRONT IS DIFFICULT DUE TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT MORE SW TO NE WITH TIME....KEEPING COLDER AIR
NORTHWEST...AND THE POTENTIAL TO GET QUITE WARM IN THE SE
CWA...ESPECIALLY NEARER SAG BAY. FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY A MID
LEVEL JET STREAK/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION/QPF
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH DATA SHOWING RATHER WEAK MOISTURE
ADV/CONVERGENCE. THE MAIN SHOW ARRIVES TONIGHT...WITH THE MAIN SRN
STREAM WAVE/NRN STREAM DIGGING WAVE PUSHING INTO NRN MICHIGAN WITH
THE NEXT SFC LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS NRN LOWER/NE LOWER. THERE
IS TOTAL AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF OVERALL -DIVQ ALIGNING FROM
MANISTEE THROUGH ROGERS CITY/ALPENA AREA TONIGHT...WITH A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF 1 OR 2 BANDS OF FGEN. EXACTLY WHERE IS TOO DIFFICULT
TO DISCERN RIGHT NOW. WE CONTINUE TO SEE COPIOUS MOISTURE FORCED
INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH
RENEWED LLJ OF 50-60KTS. THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE HEAVIEST THIS
EVENING AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN BEST CONVERGENCE. WHILE THERE IS
NO REAL GOOD INSTABILITY SEEN...OVERALL FORCING WOULD LIKELY RESULT
IN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THIS IS THE LEAST OF THE
CONCERNS...AS SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. CLOUDS RAIN KEEPING A
MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUNDER LIKELY MORE GENERATED IN
INSTABILITY ALOFT. THE SFC LOW EXITS MUCH MORE SLOWLY LATE TONIGHT
WITH YET ANOTHER WEAKER LOW BEHIND IT POSSIBLY FOLLOWING. THIS
PREVENTS THE LOWER LEVEL COLDER AIR FROM SEEPING INTO THE NW CWA
UNTIL REAL LATE...TOWARD DAYBREAK...THUS SLOWING ANY CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW.

GENERAL WEATHER EXPECTATIONS:

CLOUDS THE ENTIRE TIME...POSSIBLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE SE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL CROSS AREAS GENERALLY ALONG M-32
SOUTH THIS MORNING...BUT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION MAYBE BE IN THE
FORM OF PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FURTHER
NORTH INTO EASTERN UPPER...WHERE ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO COME BY TODAY. ALL-IN-ALL...RAIN...MAINLY LIGHT WITH
SOME EARLY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED. THEN...LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WE WILL START TO SEE HEAVIER...MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREAD MOST
ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS FROM FRANKFORT/MANISTEE
THROUGH ROGERS CITY/ALPENA (MAYBE JUST SOUTH OF THERE). RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE ABLE TO RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES...AND WHEN COMPOUNDED
WITH THE 0.75" TO 1.5" RAINS WE GOT ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR LAST
NIGHT...AND ANY REMAINING SNOWMELT...FLOODING DEFINITELY REMAINS AN
ISSUE. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN INTACT. JUST DO NOT QUITE HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE NEEDED JUST YET TO FIRE OFF ANY WARNINGS...BUT IF
THAT DECISION WAS MADE...THE FOCUS WOULD INCLUDE THE ENTIRE M-55
CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY WEST OF HOUGHTON LAKE. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW IN FAR WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD
DAYBREAK....BUT CUT SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN TO LESS THAN AN INCH THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

...TURNING MUCH COLDER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN LIKELY
CHANGING OVER TO A LITTLE SNOW...

THE LAST PIECES OF SOUTHERN JET STREAM ENERGY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE...WILL INTERACT WITH COLDER AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LIKELY BRINGING A LITTLE SNOW MONDAY
INTO PERHAPS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF DAYS
OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE
AROUND THE TIMING OF ANY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MONDAY AND POPS MONDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVING A
HARD TIME CATCHING UP TO THE DEPARTING MOISTURE. THIS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (WHICH IS
A RELIEF TO MOST OF US). AT THIS POINT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO ONLY
RESULTS IN PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHWEST LOWER AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S DUE TO STEADY COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ONE
LAST PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING BY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
CONSENSUS SAYS ANY WAVE WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND PASS BY WELL TO OUR
EAST...WHILE THE OUTLYING NAM HAS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING A ROUND OF SNOW TO THE AREA. WILL HEDGE TOWARD
CONSENSUS THEREBY KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS THERE
IS SUFFICIENT COLD AIR IN PLACE BY THEN (850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-10 TO -15 C RANGE). LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

TUESDAY....UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ENCOMPASSES THE REGION AS WE GET A
QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR (850 MB TEMPS RANGE FROM -14 TO 18 C ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA). A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS BUT THE AIRMASS IS RATHER DRY (MEAN
1000-500 MB RH ONLY ABOUT 40 PERCENT) SO HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD
(TO LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE). HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND 10 ABOVE NORTH AND THE TEENS
ELSEWHERE. A FEW RECORD LOWS WILL BE CHALLENGED (ESPECIALLY AT
GAYLORD AND ALPENA).

WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS SOME WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS (MAINLY
NORTHERN ZONES) BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS. HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME
DECIPHERING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. A SLIM MAJORITY OF MODELS
STRING OUT MOISTURE FROM A WEAKENING TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS ENTIRE
TIME PERIOD. THOUGH I FIND IT HARD TO BELIEVE THAT THIS LITTLE
SYSTEM WILL STALL OUT FOR THIS LONG...WILL HAVE TO GIVE THE MODELS
TIME TO SORT THIS OUT BEFORE BEING ABLE TO ADD MUCH VALUE TO THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THE DATE. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

QUITE THE RANGE OF CONDITIONS OUT THERE...WITH LOTS OF IFR AT MOST
TERMINAL SITES THANKS TO LOWER STRATUS/FOG ROLLING IN OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BEFORE
ANOTHER SLUG OF RAIN OVERSPREADS ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE
EVENING AND NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A MENTION AT THIS TIME.
COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST WILL LIKELY
CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE KAPN TERMINAL WHERE THINGS LOOK
JUST TOO WARM FOR ANY SNOW...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET
MIXED WITH THE RAIN AT THE END. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WILL ULTIMATELY SHIFT NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT AND GET QUITE GUSTY INTO MONDAY AS CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFT
BACK TO MVFR LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

NRN LOWER MICHIGAN RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING 75-90% ABOVE
NORMAL...AND WITH RAINFALL LAST NIGHT ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR OF
0.75" TO 1.5"...THINGS ARE QUITE SOGGY WITH FULL RIVERS/STREAMS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1-3" IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THOSE
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLY/LIKELY IMPACTING SOME OF THE SAME AREAS. OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE MANISTEE RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS THE
RIFLE RIVER BASIN. AN INCREASED FLOODING THREAT WILL BE SEEN NORTH
OF THESE BASINS TOO THOUGH...BASED ON EXPECTED QPF/RAIN AMOUNTS.
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MANISTEE AND RIFLE RIVERS. CAN DEFINITELY SEE
THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AREAL FLOODING IF THIS TOTAL QPF
PANS OUT. JUST TOO EARLY...WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO NOT DO
ANYTHING WITH THAT YET.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MIZ016>036-041-042.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
HYDROLOGY...SMD





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