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000
FXUS63 KAPX 230347
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1047 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

STRATUS CLOUDS ARE DEFINITELY TAKING THEIR TIME GETTING INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETING IN RETURN...DOWN
TO SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME AREAS ALREADY. DROPPED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES DRAMATICALLY. WARM ADVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGAN
THOUGH...INCREASING TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. EXPECTING
NORTHEAST LOWER TO BE IN SINGLE DIGITS STILL FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO. TIMING OF THE SNOW STILL SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

...VARYING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT/SOME SNOW FAR NORTH LATE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL/
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH BROAD/LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ADVANCING INTO
THE WEST.  SOUTHERN BRANCH POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN SOUTHERN FRINGES
OF NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW ALONG WITH THE TAIL END OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH CROSSING INTO WESTERN QUEBEC.  MID LEVEL (700MB) SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER MANITOBA WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION (+10C
850MB TEMPERATURE AT EDMONTON AT 12Z).  18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
1034MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSOURI...SOME
WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/DAKOTAS.  STILL A FAIR
BIT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT MID AFTERNOON BUT
GETTING SOME THIN SPOTS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER AND ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF MACKINAC.

UPSTREAM PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO MICHIGAN TONIGHT
WITH A 50KT WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.  MAIN NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN
UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER...POTENTIAL FOR WARM
ADVECTION SNOW LATE NORTH.

TONIGHT:  LINGER CLOUDS TO START ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT MID
AFTERNOON (AND SOME PESKY FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER)...WITH AN
EXPANDING AREA OF CLEARING ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN
AND MORE ENTRENCHED LOW CLOUDS ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST A MORE OPTIMISTIC TREND IN SKY COVER TO
START THIS EVENING...AT LEAST INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH WILL
BE THE WILD CARD AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS SOUTHWEST.  EVENTUALLY
THIS BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TEND TO PULL LOW CLOUDS BACK
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...WHILE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
SUSPECT ANY SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL ARRIVE PRETTY CLOSE TO OR SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK.  SOME SIGNALS FOR SOME SHALLOW FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBILITY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER LATER TONIGHT...NOT
SURE HOW EXCITED I AM ABOUT THIS PROSPECT SO WILL JUST MENTION IT AS
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR NOW AND HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING IT INTO THE
FORECAST.  WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...
GUSTING 25-30MPH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER OVERNIGHT
(30+MPH ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE).  INCREASING WINDS
EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR TONIGHT...BEFORE
CLIMBING AGAIN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS/WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

NEARLY ZONAL 500MB FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION INTO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO MAINE BY SUNDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A STORM SYSTEM WHICH ORIGINALLY ORGANIZED NEAR ALBERTA
EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL PUSH INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY...WHILE A SECOND CLIPPER DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE WRN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CONSIST OF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF FORCING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUPPLIED BY A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS
COMBINED WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MSTR.

WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FCST TREND OF DRY TO START FRIDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE STRAITS AS LOW LVL MSTR REMAINS LIMITED (850-
700MB RH INCREASES FROM 40 PCT TO 80 PCT). CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE
OF WIDESPREAD PCPN ACRS NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE FRIDAY AFTN AND EARLY
SATURDAY...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LVL MSTR INCREASING IN
ADVANCE OF THE CANADIAN SYSTEM MOVING INTO ONTARIO. PCPN TYPE
BECOMES IN QUESTION ACRS NRN MI FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MID AND UPPER LVL MSTR STRIPPING
OUT WHILE A SATURATED SFC LAYER EXISTS BELOW THE -10C ISOTHERM
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE CHANCE OF SNOW CONTS
ACRS NRN MI SATURDAY AFTN AND SUNDAY...THE RESULT OF A SECOND
CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING OVER THE WRN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.

MID LVL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEEKEND PATTERN...WILL GENERATE
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS (IN THE 30S) FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...THE RESULT OF 850M TEMPS BETWEEN -4C AND -6C. SFC
TEMPS WILL FALL TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS SUNDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS
DROP TO BETWEEN -12C AND -16C AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK AS SUNDAY`S SYSTEM MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THAT SAID...THE BROAD PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHNIESS
THAT THE GREAT LAKES HAS GROWN USED TO WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE
FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD DRAINAGE FLOW
ACROSS THE LAKES FOR CONTINUED COLD NIGHTS/MORNINGS...AND LEAVES
THE DOOR OPEN FOR THE OCCASIONAL PIECE OF ENERGY TO DROP
DOWN...THOUGH NONE OF ANY CONSEQUENCE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD CLIMO AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD...IN TIME FOR THE NEXT CLIPPER ON THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH THATS A LONG WAY OFF AND MOST HAVE AMOUNTED TO "LESS THAN
ADVERTISED" LATELY...ITS ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTIONS OF SNOW IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FILL IN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH MVFR
CEILINGS. THERE WILL BE SOME LLWS TO CONTEND WITH DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE WITH HEIGHT. SNOW SHOULD START AT ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS REDUCING VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR AT
TIMES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJL
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...TJL|