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000
FXUS63 KAPX 160244
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1044 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 817 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Visible satellite imagery reveals what appear to be a couple
subtle gravity waves (emanating from upstream convection) passing
through northern Michigan this evening. Had one pocket of showers
bubble up across eastern upper Michigan late in the afternoon and
now a second batch popping up across that area with the second
wave slipping through. So...have added scattered showers to the
forecast in eastern upper MI through the evening.

Outside of the showers...quiet weather anticipated for the rest
of the night with low pressure/associated showers and storms
sliding up through the upper Midwest and just into the far western
Great Lakes. A little warmer and a little more low level flow
will result in less fog tonight as compared to the last few
nights.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

...Continued mild and dry...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Northern Michigan remains locked between
high pressure anchored over the Upper Ohio Valley and developing low
pressure stretching from the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest.
In between, the pressure gradient (and hence southerly return flow)
will continue to steadily increase, keeping northern Michigan in the
mild warm sector region. Heights and temperatures aloft will be a
tad higher than normal for mid September, but not anomalously high
with standard deviations only around +1. So although the warmer than
normal conditions will continue, not expecting anywhere near record
breaking temperatures. Muggy mid-September dewpoints will allow for
mild overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Saturday still
looking to be the warmest day on the horizon with highs in the low
to mid 80s for most.

With not as much moisture in the low levels tonight along with a
southerly breeze, not expecting as much fog development as the last
couple nights. Expecting better fog chances will be across parts of
eastern Upper and down towards Saginaw Bay where T-Td depressions
will be closer to zero. Cloud cover will be rather minimal through
Saturday, especially across northern Lower. A little more passing
mid/high clouds expected over eastern Upper.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

...Above normal temps continue; Rain chances increase Sunday...

High Impact Weather Potential: Chance of a few thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon/evening.

Pattern Forecast: Upper level trough continues to dig across the
western third of the CONUS inducing ridging across the middle of the
country.  A cold front associated with an area of low pressure
across western Ontario, is expected to slide across northern
Michigan late in the day Sunday.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: How warm will it get on
Saturday (and over southeast parts of the area on Sunday)?
Widespread 80s on Saturday (5-15 degrees above normal) and some
potential for more 80s closer to Saginaw Bay on Sunday prior to
fropa.  There are also challenges associated with the aforementioned
cold front set to slide across northern Michigan on Sunday with
pops and thunder chances.

Rather narrow enhanced ribbon of moisture and forcing are expected
along and just ahead of Sunday`s cold front, which should keep the
most numerous showers confined to the afternoon hours associated
with FROPA. Not overly excited about thunder chances Sunday
afternoon; however, Showalter Index around -4C and MLCAPES of 500-
1000 j/kg warrant a thunder mention.  Threat for showers and
increased cloud cover should keep temperatures a few degrees cooler
than Saturday, especially across western areas, although the
potential for another very warm day exists as you head toward
Saginaw Bay.

Cold front continues to progress east-southeast Sunday evening
bringing any lingering scattered shower activity to an end.  Likely
some patchy fog developing overnight with a still relatively moist
boundary layer.  High pressure builds into the area from the upper
Midwest on Monday resulting in a return to dry weather. Temperatures
will be closer to normal (although still a touch above normal) with
highs ranging from the mid/upper 60s north to the mid 70s south.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Warmth is expected to continue through the extended as high
amplitude ridging builds across the eastern CONUS. The above normal
temperatures will persist into the weekend. Blends are suggesting
some possible scattered showers at times, though I`m not quite sold
on that right now. Some guidance is picking up on a small shortwave
moving through the western edge of the ridge and kicking off some
showers. Left the blend PoPs for now, but it looks like it will
remain dry for a majority of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1044 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

...VFR weather through Saturday...

Less fog anticipated tonight with slightly warmer temperatures
and slightly stronger low level flow...with VFR conditions
prevailing at all terminal sites. Fair weather continues through
Saturday with VFR weather and southerly winds just under 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Despite a steady southerly breeze through the weekend, winds and
waves will remain below SCA criteria with gusts to around 20 knots
expected at times. Otherwise quiet weather continues with high
pressure providing mainly clear skies and warmer than normal
temperatures.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BA
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...MK