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000
FXUS63 KAPX 161351
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
951 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER PATTERN PROVIDE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WHILE ALSO DELIVERING
CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHTS. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL WAIT UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

ANOTHER QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...ALTHOUGH NOT WITHOUT
AT LEAST A FEW FORECAST CHALLENGES. BAND OF ACCAS ALONG CORRIDOR OF
IMPRESSIVE H8-H7 LAPSE RATES CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE AREA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. MUCH FURTHER NORTH...EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS
CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AROUND BACKSIDE OF QUEBEC CENTERED LOW
PRESSURE. DIURNAL TRENDS AND DOWNSLOPING STARTING TO TAKE ITS
TOLL...WITH NOTABLE THINNING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. STILL APPEARS
SOME OF THIS MAY SNEAK INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH ADDED
MOISTURE PERHAPS ENTICING A DIURNALLY DRIVEN STRATO-CU RESPONSE.
OTHERWISE...A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

ONTO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS: SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT HAS EXITED
SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO FALL JUST
SHORT OF RED FLAG CRITERIA (ESSENTIALLY...A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY). WINDS AND RH VALUES...HOWEVER...EXPECTED
TO MAKE A RUN AT CRITICAL LEVELS. CORE OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS (15
TO 25 MPH) EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS AND BACKWARD
TRAJECTORY RAP GUIDANCE BOTH SUPPORT DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE
LOWER 30S (ISOLATED UPPER 20S) THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING RH
READINGS WELL BELOW 30 PERCENT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF INTERIOR
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE A ROGUE REG FLAG OBSERVATION OR TWO
MORE THAN EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HURON NATION FOREST
AREA...THESE SHOULD BE MORE THAN EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE...AND NOT
WORTHY OF ANY SPECIFIC HEADLINE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

NARROW LINE OF MID CLOUD PRESSING INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
HAS BEEN THINNING OUT CONSIDERABLY AND NOT LIKELY TO HAVE MUCH OF
AN IMPACT ON SKY COVER THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTH...STRATUS
SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WITH SHALLOW COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT THAT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE
REGION. NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR JUST HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS WILL GET
INTO THE U.P. AND SUSPECT A GOOD PART WILL MIX OUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. BUT HAVE NUDGED UP SKY COVER (PARTLY SUNNY) FOR EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

OVERVIEW: FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND
AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS. PATTERN
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH RIDGING BUILDING
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...
SIGNALING WARMER AND RAIN-FREE DAYS AHEAD.

ON THE SMALLER SCALE...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC WITH A SUBTLE FRONT CURVING BACK ACROSS THE NRN LAKES/SRN
ONTARIO REGION. FRONT IS FORECAST SAG DOWN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY
RESULTING IN SUBTLE COOLING. SO TAKE YESTERDAYS HIGHS AND TRIM OFF A
FEW DEGREES...THAT SHOULD YIELD A DECENT RESULT. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONE
BATCH OF MID CLOUD AND SPOTTY ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NRN
WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH POCKET OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
THAT WILL SLIDE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. IN ADDITION...CLOUD COVER
ACROSS ONTARIO BEHIND THE FRONT MAY MAKE A RUN TOWARD EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN BEYOND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SFC
DEWPOINTS TO DROP OFF THIS AFTERNOON AFTER HEATING/MIXING TAPS VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT. LOW 30S DEWPOINTS PROBABLY EASILY ATTAINABLE...WITH
EVEN LOW VALUES POSSIBLE IF WE MIX DEEP ENOUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MIN AFTERNOON RH VALUES ACROSS INLAND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN DIPPING
BELOW 25 PERCENT. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG
CRITERIA AND WINDS TODAY WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS GUSTY AS WEDNESDAY.
NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN TH HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHTER WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME FROST A
POSSIBILITY AS WELL. DONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS...
BUT DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER FROST ADVISORY POSSIBILITIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

QUIET AND DOWNRIGHT SPECTACULAR LATE SPRING WEATHER REMAINS ON TAP
AS WE WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK AND HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
REALLY NO MAJOR CONCERNS FORESEEN THROUGH SUNDAY. WHAT HAPPENS
THEREAFTER IS A BIT MORE IN QUESTION...BUT SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT
TOWARD INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOMETIME DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS A
QUIET ONE FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...FEATURING A TRANSITION FROM A
RATHER FLAT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...TOWARD ONE OF AMPLIFIED
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES BY SUNDAY...
DOWNSTREAM OF RATHER SHARP TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TAKING SHAPE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SAID PATTERN WILL ALSO FORCE A RATHER PRONOUNCED AREA OF MID
LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA WITH TIME...HELPING
DRIVE LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND INTO SOUTHERN
NEWFOUNDLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOOKING AT A FEW SPECIFICS...JUST NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED BY ANY PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES WHILE
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILD WITH TIME. ANY MAJOR PRECIP THREAT
SHOULD BE CONFINED ACROSS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS ALONG
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY (NEAR ITS CLIMO-FAVORED LOCATION THIS
TIME OF YEAR). JUST NOT BUYING INTO NAM/GFS DEPICTION OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION FIRING THIS FAR NORTH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
AS THIS APPEARS TO BE TIED TO ERRONEOUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD
(THIS IS A BIG PROBLEM SO FAR THIS YEAR). IN ADDITION...THE BEST
LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO RESIDE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
ALONG AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH WESTERN ONTARIO...WHILE A
PRONOUNCED SUB-800MB DRY WEDGE DOMINATES NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS
SUCH...REALLY LIKE OUR CALL TO GO DRY AND WILL MAINTAIN...WITH
PERHAPS JUST A LITTLE INCREASE IN SOME MID OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
HIGHS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S ONCE AGAIN...COOLEST
NEAR THE LAKESHORES WHERE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN A
WEAK GRADIENT REGIME...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NIGHTS
CONTINUE TO LOOK COOL AND QUITE COMFORTABLE...AND GIVEN THE SETUP
WITH RESPECTABLE MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS EACH AFTERNOON AND WEAK
WIND FIELDS...WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME LOWER 30S POSSIBLE FOR THE USUAL COOL SPOTS ONCE
AGAIN.

THEREAFTER...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE EARLY NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING GRADUAL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF
TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE OVERALL
SPECIFICS AREN`T KNOWN JUST YET...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY WORKS NORTH THROUGH
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE WARM FRONT...ALL WHILE INCREASING
DIFLUENCE ALOFT WORKS IN TANDEM WITH STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW WITH
A WIDE OPEN GULF. IN FACT...SHOULD THINGS SET UP AS CURRENT MODELED
(THEY RARELY DO)...COULD SEE THIS BEING A HEAVY RAIN SETUP SOMEWHERE
NEARBY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE QUITE TRICKY IN THIS SETUP...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY VERY WARM READINGS (WELL INTO THE 80S?) AS
PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGING RIDES NORTH INTO THE AREA...BUT ALSO THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN-COOLED 60S PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF ANY
PRECIP. WILL CONTINUE TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AT THIS POINT...BUT
WITH A NOTABLE TREND TOWARD MUCH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TOWARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL VEER NORTHERLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME GUSTINESS AROUND 20
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT PLN AND APN. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND FOR
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS...ALTHOUGH
GUSTS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. WINDS GO LIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MB
SYNOPSIS...DL
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...DL
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...BA