Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 300315

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1115 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Issued at 929 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016

No further updates needed. Sfc trough/low level convergence moving
into eastern upper and far nrn Lake Michigan, still supporting
isolated to scattered showers, while very isolated light
showers/sprinkles still seen moving across NE lower. All activity
to gradually wane, the last being with the sfc trough, probably by
midnight. Will lower temps a little for lows. Clearer skies than
expected for the overnight, as confidence in any lower level cloud
formation is less.

UPDATE Issued at 621 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016

Updated all products to take out thunder and reduce the coverage
of showers to isolated-scattered. The pre-frontal trough and
deeper moisture/instability are to our east, and we have just not
been able to generated any instability to result in thunder.
Forcing has been weak by the shortwave trough itself, which is
already shoving the little forcing east of us. There is a
secondary trough/cold front that has been generating showers and
storms in central upper and northeast Wisconsin, but anything
moving into our less unstable atmosphere has been falling apart.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 313 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016

Low pressure center has pushed just north of Lake Superior this
afternoon. Associated cold front has reached Lake Michigan...
generating a line of weak convection along it...and spotty weak
convection out ahead of it across our CWA. Cooler/drier air
continues to filter into the region along and behind this cold
front. Surface dwpts have steadily dropped out of the lower 60s and
thru the 50s over the past few hours...certainly indicating an
evolution to a drier/more stable airmass even out ahead of the
actual cold front. As a result...convection has been quite weak and
widely scattered so far despite the approach of a cold front during
peak heating. Also...convergence along the front is not
exceptionally impressive either...with only a small/gradual wind
shift from SW to W/SW behind it.

Conditions will likely become increasingly hostile toward strong
convective development as low level cooling and drying continue to
progress eastward with FROPA. Certainly expect scattered showers and
storms will continue to develop thru the evening hours fueled by
modest diurnally enhanced instability with weak focus provided by
the front...but strong/marginally svr convection is becoming less
likely. Cannot completely rule out an isold strong storm...mainly
across NE Lwr Michigan where instability may be a bit stronger. Will
maintain high chance to likely POPs across much of our CWA into the
evening...tapering off chances of precip and especially chances of
thunder as we head toward sunset. Conditions will be noticeably
cooler and less humid tonight...with overnight lows falling into the
mid to upper 50s across all of Nrn Michigan.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal through Wednesday.

Monday...A drop in boundary layer humidity is expected for Memorial
Day with afternoon dew points expected to fall into the 40s to lower
50s.  There should be quite a bit of sunshine with highs ranging
from the upper 60s over parts of eastern upper to the lower 80s over
northeast Lower.  Full/nearly full green-up has occurred to a large
degree across Northern Lower Michigan, diminishing the fire danger.
I will not mention elevated fire danger in the HWO/graphics, but it
is still a situation that bears watching given low fuel moistures,
warm temps, gusty winds and afternoon humidity values nearing 30%.

Height falls passing by to the north of the forecast area will push
a weak and moisture starved cold front south and into northern
Michigan Monday night into early Tuesday.  Very little expected with
this feature, outside of a few more clouds.  Lows temps in the 40s
to lower 50s.

Shortwave trough will move into the northern/central plains states
Tuesday...with some low amplitude induced ridging out ahead of this
feature.  This ridging will play a role in slowing the eastward
progression of the trough.  Still some uncertainty as to how quickly
rain chances will increase and gut feeling says slower is the way
to go with this sytem. Will keep things dry during the day on
Tuesday and then begin to ramp up the rain chances Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Instability not that impressive and best
forcing/kinematics primarily west of the area, so mainly showers
with a few rumbles of thunder.

Could be dealing with some rain chances Thursday until cold front
pushes through. Fairly quiet after that as we sit under surface
high pressure on the down slope side of ridging to our west for
most of the extended period. A shortwave possibly passing near the
end of the weekend or start of next week could produce another
brief chance of showers before quiet weather returns. After a
stretch of well above normal temperatures, the passing cold front
will help to knock temperatures back down to near normal for this
time of year, in the low 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1111 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016

A sfc trough will cross eastern upper/far nrn lower after
midnight, and will bring isolated showers to mainly PLN. These
showers die off by daybreak with scattered cumulus Monday
afternoon. The period of MVFR looks much less likely for tonight
with just some few low end VFR clouds around.

Westerly winds less than 10 knots tonight with gusts in the teens


Issued at 313 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016

Winds and waves will continue to reach SCA criteria thru this
evening for much of our nearshore area...with conditions weakening
later this evening and overnight. The chance of showers and storms
will continue thru this evening as a cold front sweeps thru the
region. An isold strong storm is possible.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Mayhew/Keysor
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