Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 300842
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
442 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY
...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
WARM...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND A COUPLE STORMS...

IMPACTS: POSSIBLE LIGHTNING...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS CIRCLING OVER JAMES BAY WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH IS CROSSING NRN LOWER. LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE TROUGH...MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND BACK THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF ONTARIO. THIS
DUE TO MINIMAL MIXING OUT OF YESTERDAY`S BL. ALSO...YESTERDAY`S
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST...WAS DROPPING THROUGH WISCONSIN.
NOCTURNAL COOLING/LOSS OF INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED MOST ALL OF THE
ACTIVITY TO FADE AWAY...BUT THERE REMAINED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE TROUGHS. A CORRIDOR OF DEEPER DRIER AIR
WAS DROPPING SOUTH AND BISECTING NRN LOWER...WHILE A STRONGER WAVE
AND SFC TROUGH...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD MID AND UPPER CLOUD
WAS ONGOING IN NRN/CNTRL ONTARIO.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE COLD FRONT CROSSING NRN LOWER THIS MORNING WILL BRING A FAIRLY
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FOR THE START OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH MAYBE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AROUND M-55...BEFORE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
SETTLES IN BEHIND. MOST AREAS TO BE RAIN FREE. THIS FLOW WILL BACK
MORE WEST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE AND NEXT SFC
TROUGH ARRIVE...ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES.
WHEN COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER NE LOWER AND INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE EXPECTED (MAYBE
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG CAPE). THESE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INITIALLY IN
INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER...EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...THEN A COUPLE HOURS
LATER ACROSS NE LOWER WHEN THE INGREDIENTS ARRIVE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
BE ABLE TO BE CARRIED INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUE TO PRESS INTO THE REGION...BUT
STILL FIGURE FOR DECREASING COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHT WITH
LESS AND LESS INSTABILITY. COULD EVEN SEE A SHOWER OR TWO DROP INTO
THE GTV BAY REGION FROM AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT AROUND GREEN BAY...AS
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME SHORTWAVE HELP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MAYBE A DEGREE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...QUITE
SIMILAR...IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN
SIMILAR...BUT GUIDANCE MAY BE JUST A SHADE LOW DUE TO CLOUDS. UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH A FEW SHOWER CHANCES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COOL SEASON LIKE PATTERN
REMAINS...WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EAST NOAM TROUGHING BOOKENDED BY
JUST AS IMPRESSIVE WEST ATLANTIC/WESTERN NOAM RIDGES. SUCH AMPLIFIED
PATTERNS ARE OFTEN A SLOW ONE TO YIELD...AND THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE NO
DIFFERENT AS TROUGHING DOMINATES OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY
OVER TIME...BUT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOME MAGNITUDE OF TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEK PREDICATED BY SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH PARENT TROUGH
AXIS...AS WELL AS THE DAILY INSTABILITY CYCLE. AS FOR THE
FORMER...WATER VAPOR CONFIRMS THERE ARE PLENTY OF THEM...ONE
DROPPING OVERHEAD NOW...WITH ANOTHER ROTATING SOUTH ACROSS
ONTARIO...WITH STILL OTHERS ROTATING ON THE NORTH AND EAST FLANK OF
TROUGH CENTER LOCATED OVER JAMES BAY. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED
WITH THE STRENGTH OF ANY OF THESE WAVES...ALTHOUGH EACH ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE OF SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. AS FOR
INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER MINIMAL THROUGH THE
DURATION...COURTESY OF LIMITED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT TERRIBLY
COLD MID LEVELS. STILL...LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INTERACTION OF
WAVES/INSTABILITY...PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE INDUCED CONVERGENCE
AXES...TO CONTINUE A MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWER THREAT INTO THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT. ACCESSING MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO
NEED ADDRESSING.

DETAILS: REALLY NOT MUCH TO ADD FROM THE PATTERN EVOLUTION TALKED
ABOUT ABOVE. WOULD FEEL MUCH MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT DAILY RAIN CHANCES
IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS A TOUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE. PATTERN SAYS THAT
SHOULD NOT HAPPEN...WITH FLOW DIRECTED OUT OF CANADA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TIMING OF VORT LOBES/SHORTWAVES PARAMOUNT IN SUCH AN
ENVIRONMENT TO PREDICT PERIODS OF BETTER SHOWER POTENTIAL. STILL
APPEARS THURSDAY IS ONE SUCH PERIOD WHEN THINGS COULD BETTER
COALIGN...ALTHOUGH TRENDS STARTING TO SUGGEST BEST MID LEVEL SUPPORT
EXITING BEFORE PEAK "HEATING" IS REALIZED. STRONG EVIDENCE YESTERDAY
OF A RATHER HEALTHY LAKE MICHIGAN SHADOW...AND SEE NO REASON IT
WON`T OCCUR AGAIN (ALL WEEK ACTUALLY). INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY
HAS THIS "LOOK"...TAILORING POPS OFF SUBSTANTIALLY FROM EAST TO
WEST. SEE NO COMPELLING REASON FOR MUCH CHANGE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
APPEAR MUCH THE SAME...WITH DRY OVERNIGHTS FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
MAINLY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAVORED
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. THUNDER THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL GIVEN LACK
OF BETTER INSTABILITY.

PATTERN BEGINS TO RELAX SOME HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
START OF NEXT WEEK....ALTHOUGH TROUGHING REMAINS. GUIDANCE HAS
REMAINED RATHER STEADFAST SHOWING A MAINLY DRY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES BY MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE POTENTIALLY ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES: AIRMASS TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS THURSDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S...WARMING UP TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL TIMING
DEPENDENT OF COURSE...BUT CURRENT THOUGHT IS A TOUCH COOLER AIR
ARRIVES NEXT WORK WEEK (NOTHING LIKE THE START OF THIS
WEEK...HOWEVER).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...IFR EARLY THIS MORNING...

A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH DECENT
COVERAGE OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING/EXPANDING OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS FOR
PRIMARILY PLN/APN. THIS WILL BURN OFF PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE NOT MOISTENING UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND MAINLY EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO ROAM
THE AIRPORTS.

WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH EARLY...WITH AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES.
LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

NOT MANY MARINE ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SEVERAL SFC TROUGHS STILL ROAMING THE GREAT LAKES. ONE
TROUGH WAS CROSSING LAKES HURON AND MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE N/NW. SPEEDS ARE LIGHT...AND LIKELY TO GET
ALTERED BY LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER
AND ALSO BACK MORE SW/WEST TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE
AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS AND LAKE BREEZES AGAIN
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD







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