Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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869
FXUS63 KAPX 031743
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1243 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

996MB LOW IS MOVING NE FROM GEORGIAN BAY...WHILE THE PARENT 500MB
CIRCULATION IS ENTERING SW WI. MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREAD ALL
OF NORTHERN MI THIS MORNING...ENDING WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIP
AND LEAVING A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF DRIZZLE (AND A TOUCH OF FZDZ)
BEHIND. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR ALOFT IS STARTING
TO RE-ENTER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE WI MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
SOME CONVECTIVE PRECIP IS THUS RETURNING TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
LOWER MI. THERE HAS BEEN SOME SPOTTY DENSE FOG...MAINLY SOUTH OF
M-72...BUT CAD IS THE ONLY PLACE THAT HAS GONE DOWN AND STAYED
DOWN. MEANWHILE...A FEW SPOTS IN NE LOWER ARE ACTUALLY SEEING A
TOUCH OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING.

PRIMARY SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NE THIS MORNING...SPREADING PRECIP
BACK INTO NW/N CENTRAL LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER AS WE MOVE THRU THE
REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID
30S...THIS SNOW WILL BE SLOPPY (AGAIN)...AND PERHAPS MIXED WITH
RAIN EARLY ON. HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION ON NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
AS WE MOVE THRU THE AFTERNOON...AND PRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW AND A
LITTLE DRIER/FLUFFIER BY THE TIME WE HIT 00Z. IN ADDITION...WITH
850MB TEMPS REACHING -11C OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI AND -13C ON
EASTERN SUPERIOR...LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL EMERGE TO REPLACE THE
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC PRECIP.

THE WARM BL WILL HINDER SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
GOING TO BE DIFFICULT TO SEE MORE THAN A SLOPPY HALF INCH TO
MAYBE AN INCH THRU 00Z/7PM.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER...NONE EXPECTED.

...SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE THEN A LITTLE SNOW...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP OF INTEREST...998 MB LOW PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED A SOLID LOW OVERCAST ACROSS ALL OF MICHIGAN. APX RADAR SHOWED
LIGHT RETURNS SCATTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND WHEN OR IF PRECIPITATION
WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION TODAY.

TODAY...WELL THE STORM LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING GAVE THE
AREA A FEW UNEXPECTED SURPRISES. THE SHORT LIVED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW BURST FROM WARM ADVECTION WORKED OUT AS PLANNED FOR THE MOST
PART. HOWEVER...CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES...ADDED TO
SNOWFALL TOTALS DOWN THAT WAY WHILE ROBBING PLACES TO THE
NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. THIS WOULD HAVE BEEN
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT...WHICH WE DIDN`T. ANYWAYS...ON TO
TODAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION
LEAVING MAINLY DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS YET. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WRAP
AROUND/DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION. FIRST IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW WITH A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES WHERE FORCING IS CENTERED. TEMPERATURES TODAY HOLDING
NEARLY STEADY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S (EVEN AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST)
BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING OFF THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO GET GOING AS
COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH/WEST. OVER LAKE INSTABILITY IS
ALRIGHT...BUT NOTHING TOO GREAT WITH LAKE/850 MB DELTA TS IN THE 15
TO 17 DEGREE RANGE. THE FLOW IS PRETTY MUCH LOCKED INTO THE
NORTHWEST. MOISTURE ISN`T BAD WITH 850/700 MB RH BETWEEN 70 AND 80
PERCENT. EXPECT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN FAVORED
FLOW AREAS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF A
DECENT BAND GETS GOING. COLDER BUT STILL A LITTLE MILD FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT. STILL
LOOKING AT PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN SET TO
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...WITH VISITS A`PLENTY FROM
MOSTLY MOISTURE STARVED NORTHERN STREAM WAVES. NOW...DESPITE THEIR
OVERALL LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...WHAT THEY DO HAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO DRUM UP LAKE SNOWS IN VARIED WIND FLOW REGIMES...ADDING
TO WHAT IS BECOMING A HALFWAY DECENT NORTHERN MICHIGAN SNOW PACK
(ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW START TO THE SNOW SEASON WE
HAD).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: LAKE SNOW EVOLUTION AND
ATTENDANT SNOW AMOUNTS.

DETAILS: WEST/WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME HALFWAY DECENT PARAMETERS...WITH INVERSION
LEVELS UP NEAR H7 AND GOOD OMEGA PEGGED IN FLUFF-PRODUCING DGZ. ONE
NEGATIVE IS EXPECTED RATHER LIGHT (SUB 20 KNOTS) AND DISORGANIZED
WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE LAKE INDUCED CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER
(LIMITING MOISTURE FLUX). STILL...GOTTA BELIEVE FAVORED AREAS COULD
SEE AT LEAST SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW BACKS AROUND MORE SOUTHWEST WITH TIME
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FAST MOVING LOW AMP WAVE.
PERHAPS A LULL IN LAKE PROCESSES AS THIS OCCURS...WAITING ON DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT TO ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY EVENING TO
REINVIGORATE LAKE SNOWS. OVER-WATER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL AS H8 TEMPS HOVER IN THE NEGATIVE LOWER TEENS...AND WINDOW
ITSELF FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOW IS A SHORT ONE...WITH PASSAGE OF
SURFACE TROUGH SHOVING LAKE CONVECTION BACK INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AS
WINDS SWING AROUND MORE WESTERLY. ALL TOLD...COULD EASILY SEE
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO FANNED ACROSS THE SNOW BELTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

LOSS OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION AND MAINTENANCE OF MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LOOK TO BRING SNOW INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
DOWN QUITE A BIT HEADING THROUGH FRIDAY. PRETTY DECENT GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WAVE TO ARRIVE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING A PERIOD OF LATE NIGHT
LIGHT SNOW...PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST COLD ENOUGH TO PERHAPS ENTICE A LITTLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE RESPONSE UP INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. THAT FRIDAY NIGHT SYSTEM
FINISHES CROSSING THE AREA SATURDAY...KICKING OFF SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW IN THE PROCESS. AREA LOOKS TO CATCH A SHORT-LIVED BREAK
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY (AT LEAST AS IT LOOKS NOW. SUBJECT TO
CHANGE OF COURSE). PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT NOAM PATTERN BECOMES MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED HEADING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK...WITH UPSTREAM RIPPLE
EFFECTS HELPING PUNCH AN ELONGATED WESTERN RIDGE. ENERGY DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO HELP CARVE OUT
RATHER SIGNIFICANT CENTRAL CONUS TROUGHING LATER SUNDAY...WHICH
SLOWLY ROTATES EAST INTO OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING
LIKE A MOISTURE RICH SYSTEM (GULF NEVER GETS INVOLVED)...BUT
SIMPLE DYNAMICS SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES TO START NEXT
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

IMPROVING TO MVFR.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM LAKE HURON. AS IT
DOES SO...AND AS NW WINDS DEVELOP TO BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION...STRATUS/FOG WILL LIFT. THIS PROCESS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY.
WITH IT THOUGH...WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF -RA/-SN THIS AFTERNOON...
CHANGING OVER TO JUST -SN BEFORE BECOMING JUST LAKE EFFECT -SHSN
BY THIS EVENING. TVC IN PARTICULAR MOST LIKELY TO BE BOTHERED BY
-SHSN TONIGHT.

NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND COULD GUST TO NEAR
20KT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION...STRONG AND GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP BEFORE TURNING INTO THE NORTHWEST AND
BECOME A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL ZONES. A SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WIND REGIME
IS THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...SULLIVAN



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