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000
FXUS63 KAPX 251057
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
657 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...GIVING LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WHILE ALSO DELIVERING CLEAR AND COOL NIGHTS.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL MAKE A RETURN INTO THE MIDDLE AND
LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTH INTO THE
REGION. THAT FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED. TOOK OUT SOME CIRRUS ACROSS THE GTV
BAY REGION AS SKIES CLEARED. DEFINITELY COLD OUT THERE...WILL JUST
LET THE FROST ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

REAL QUIET AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL NOT STOP TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN RIGHT OVERHEAD AND WILL
REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO WELL ORGANIZED
LAKE BREEZES THAT WILL COLLIDE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL ONLY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS WITHIN THE
CONVERGENCE REGIONS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SOME
PERIODIC HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS SCRAPING NW LOWER AT TIMES...BUT ALL-
IN-ALL...WE WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER. IT
WILL REMAIN A BIT CHILLY HOWEVER...AS A COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
LEAD TO HIGHS ONLY HITTING THE LOWER 60S...COOLER ALONG THE
LAKESHORES. THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY SCENARIO...WITHIN A DRY
AIR MASS...WILL LEAD TO GREATER THAN 30F DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES INTO TONIGHT. AM EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
FROSTY ONE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY TO BE
ISSUED LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

JUST NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT AS WE ROUND OUT THE MEMORIAL DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND THAT`S NOT NECESSARILY A BAD THING...AS NEAR
PERFECT LATE MAY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. A LITTLE BUSIER
WEATHER LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN APPEARANCE INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES/TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH JUST HOW WARM TEMPS WILL GET BEING THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES. THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS
TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM THE CURRENT ONE...AS CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
MEANDERS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...FORCING A
DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALL TAKE PLACE WHILE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL
CONFLUENCE HELPS DRIVE ELONGATED LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO EASTERN ONTARIO BY MONDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE ESSENTIALLY
BLOCKED FROM FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WANDERS
AIMLESSLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA. THIS PATTERN IS
STILL PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN BY TUE/WED AND BEYOND...AS THE
EASTERN CLOSED LOW EXITS...ALLOWING BROADER UPPER TROUGHING TO
ENGULF THE PLAINS AND STRONGER RETURN FLOW TO GET UNDERWAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...GRADUALLY FORCING A WARM FRONT FROM THE LOWER
LAKES BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARD MIDWEEK.

A LOOK AT THE SPECIFICS REVEALS LITTLE WEATHER OF NOTE THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY AS LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING AND PLENTIFUL DRY AIR REMAIN
PARKED ACROSS THE AREA...FAVORING LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND INCREASINGLY
WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS VIA SIMPLE AIRMASS MODERATION EACH DAY. DOES
STILL APPEAR SUNDAY NIGHT MAY FEATURE SOME SNEAKY CHILLY OVERNIGHT
LOWS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IS STILL PARKED DIRECTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE DOWN LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION. WILL THUS CONTINUE TO HAVE
ANOTHER FROST MENTION IN THERE...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS BASED ON SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PASSING THICKER HIGH CLOUDS FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE ALSO PERHAPS SEEING A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATER MONDAY AS 700-500MB WARM ADVECTION ASCENT
GRADUALLY RAMPS UP.

THEREAFTER...TIMING OF INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES STILL REMAINS A BIT
IN QUESTION...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO WHETHER IT WILL HAPPEN BY
MONDAY NIGHT...OR WAIT UNTIL SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY. THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER...WITH THE GFS NOTABLY FASTER WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF BETTER WARM AND THETA-E ADVECTION BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MORE OF A LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT DEAL AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH. EITHER
WAY...THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME IS LOOKING AT LEAST BRIEFLY
UNSETTLED...BUT STARTING TO SEE HINTS THAT IS MIGHT BE A SHORT-LIVED
PERIOD OF PRECIP AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARD THE U.P. OR EVEN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY FEATURE A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS...BUT WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIP AS THE FORCING
BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
(BUILDING MID LEVEL CAP). A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP COULD MAKE A
RETURN BY FRIDAY...BUT PROBABLY MORE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
WESTERN TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. PROVIDED WE DON`T END
UP WITH ANY SURPRISES IN THE CLOUD OR PRECIP DEPARTMENT (NEVER A
CERTAINTY WITH CONVECTION)...SHOULD SEE HIGHS SPIKE WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOW 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EVEN WARMER READINGS TOWARD THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS
MORE PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGING ARRIVES...WITH CURRENT PROGS OF H8
TEMPS SPIKING INTO THE 15-17C RANGE SUGGESTING HIGHS INTO THE MID
80S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES
THRU SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 10 MPH FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING...WITH LAKE
BREEZES DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL OFFER NO MARINE ISSUES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LAKE BREEZES. WINDS DO TURN OUT OF THE SE MONDAY
OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL DRIVE THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL
BECOME SOMETHING TO CONSIDER...BUT GROWING STABILITY WILL TRY AND
PREVENT POTENTIAL HEADLINES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ016>036-041-
     042.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SYNOPSIS...DL
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DL
AVIATION...SD
MARINE...SD