325
FXUS63 KAPX 030539
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
139 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers/storms possible this afternoon
  and evening. Marginal Risk for an isolated severe storm, with
  the primary concern being gusty to damaging winds.

- Turning warmer and more humid for the start of the 4th of July
  holiday weekend.

- Next appreciable rain and thunder chances return for the latter
  half of the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper-level closed low situated near
James Bay with longwave troughing draped over the majority of the
eastern half of the CONUS. Attendant weak low pressure situated over
northeast Quebec with secondary cold front stretched southwestward
over Ontario to near western Lake Superior back into the upper MS
Valley. This boundary makes slow progress toward northern MI late
this afternoon/evening before eventually clearing south of the
forecast area and becoming more stationary downstate on Thursday.
Heights aloft rise and sfc high pressure settles in locally
Thursday/Thursday night before that boundary lifts back north
effectively as a warm front during the day Friday. The second half
of the weekend looks unsettled as low pressure treks across the
northern tier of the country.

Forecast Details: Blossoming cu field this afternoon, primarily
north-central and northeast lower, and to a lesser extent, inland
eastern upper. These areas the focus for initial potential
shower/storm development (have already seen a couple of cells
develop across northeast lower) this afternoon along inland
penetrating lake breezes. Background synoptic winds around 10
kts likely to limit inland progress of lake breezes to some
extent with the highest chances (albeit, still low) for an
additional pop up shower/storm focused in the Lake Huron collar
counties and the convergence axis near the Mackinac/Chippewa
County line. MLCAPE on the order of around 1,000 J/kg in
northeast lower, up to 500 J/kg in the eastern U.P. Combined
with a textbook inverted- V profile and ~30 kts of bulk shear,
there`s a low chance for a strong-severe storm with strong winds
and some hail as the primary threat.

Additional shower/storm chances arrive from upstream this
evening/overnight in advance of the aforementioned approaching cold
front. Instability across our area expected to be less impressive
than upstream over WI, and diminishing with time given a loss of
daytime heating -- but none the less, given a generally similar
environment as seen this afternoon, any stronger updrafts within any
linear convective complex may be capable of strong to severe wind
gusts. As was alluded to by the prior forecaster, a more likely
scenario is one that features a weakening, outflow dominant
convective mode that continues to feature the possibility of
gusty/strong (but sub-severe) winds. Highest chances for this are
across northwest lower, perhaps as early as 6-7 PM, but more so mid-
late evening into the early overnight hours. SPC continues to
maintain the Day 1 Marginal Risk across much of northern lower MI.

Shower/storm chances wane late overnight into Thursday morning as
instability diminishes and the frontal boundary sags south across
northern lower. Skies anticipated to become mostly sunny again
tomorrow, although may continue to be a bit hazy due to Canadian
wildfire smoke, with highs climbing back into the 70s far north and
low-mid 80s far south.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Day 2-4 (Thursday night - Sunday): Tonight/Thursday`s cold front
stalls downstate through Thursday night before effectively shifting
north as a warm front on Friday/July 4th. 50th percentile high temps
Friday range from the low 80s to low 90s with 90th percentile probs
in the low-upper 90s. Some uncertainty exists with precip potential,
although latest trends support a mainly dry July 4th across the
Northwoods, despite increasing isentropic ascent. Hard to completely
rule out a rogue shower/storm during the late afternoon/evening that
may impact some holiday festivities, but very low potential and a
lack of spatial coverage preclude that explicit mention in the
forecast at this time.

Another hot/humid day Saturday with high temps probabilities higher
than that of Friday. 50th % probs feature highs in the low-upper 90s
with 90th % climbing into the low 100s across parts of northern
lower. The deterministic forecast still has highs within a handful
of degrees of record at a few of northern MI climate sites
(TVC/PLN/APN). By Saturday night, another mid-level wave and
associated area of low pressure is expected to be trekking across
the northern tier of the country. This should provide the region`s
best shot at more numerous showers and storms by late Saturday night
into Sunday. Crude look at severe parameters through this time frame
suggests perhaps a low end severe weather threat, although frontal
timing looks less than ideal.

Day 5-7 (Monday - Wednesday): Passage of the late weekend system
should provide some relief to weekend heat/humidity as high pressure
settles in to start next week. Dry conditions expected
Monday/Tuesday, perhaps all the way through Wednesday, although the
envelope of solutions does widen at the tail end of the forecast
period with respect to rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 136 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Any -SHRA and -TSRA will continue to shift east, leaving quiet
conditions in its wake. Expect VFR through the period for most,
exception being MBL through the morning with BR/FG at times.
Currently have TEMPO for 1 SM VIS. Skies will be mainly clear
today and tonight. Winds northwest on Thursday, at about 10 KTs
on average.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...JLD