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000
FXUS63 KAPX 210202
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1002 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Evening blossoming cloud shield and associated convection across
Wisconsin continues to slowly progress eastward early tonight,
all tied to a cold front currently extending from near the west-
central UP southeastward through south-central WI.

This boundary will gradually push eastward overnight into Thursday morning,
although hi-res guidance continues to suggest a significant diminishing trend
as showers/storms arrive to northern Michigan. Refined PoPs with
this update, although the same general trend remains...diminishing
coverage expected as precip crosses Lake Michigan with scattered
showers and a few storms possible across far northwest Lower as
early as midnight...gradually pushing eastward through early
Thursday morning.

Otherwise, certainly a mild night on tap across the forecast area with low temps
ranging from the low-upper 60s...some

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 334 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...Showers and possibly a rumble of thunder tonight...

High impact weather potential: Non severe thunderstorms possible
overnight with some stronger storms possible over northeast lower
tomorrow afternoon.

Models have slowed the approaching cold front associated with a low
pressure system over Manitoba. This cold front will renew chances of
rain and thunderstorms over the forecast area late tonight and
through tomorrow afternoon. Some of the high-res models have shown
the precipitation doing the classic "fizzling out" as it moves over
northern lower while eastern upper gets some rain. This is
definitely not out of the question as the better forcing moves
northeast into Canada. Any storms that do develop overnight should
not reach severe limits as 0-6km bulk shear is only about 20-30kts
and elevated in nature...along with the decreasing instability as
previously mentioned.

Tonight will be muggy with dewpoints remaining near 65 degrees. Fog
will be likely tonight with such high dewpoints and rain in the
forecast. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid 70s over eastern upper
and reach into the mid 80s over northern lower.

As long as the cloud cover decreases tomorrow afternoon to allow for
sufficient daytime heating there is some concern of some strong
storms across northeast lower with forecast soundings of MLCAPE
between 2500-3000 j/kg, not much CINH to overcome, steep lapse
rates, and winds veering with height. Just something to keep an
eye on.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 334 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...New record high temperatures likely...

New record high temperatures are likely to be set for both Friday
and Saturday in some locations. The best chance of this occurring is
in Gaylord and Petoskey with all other sites likely getting close if
not breaking their respective records as well! This is all due to
the combination of a digging trough in the western states and an
unseasonably warm upper level ridge across the middle and eastern
sections of the country. Model soundings show very good mixing up to
about 800 mb. Expect highs of well into the 80s with a few lower 90s
possible for both Friday and Saturday (this could even be a little
conservative but don`t want to go too crazy just in case we form any
low clouds/fog at night). It will be muggy as well making it feel
downright hot! Just a small chance for a lingering shower or storm
Thursday night. Otherwise, not a lot of moisture aloft with some
capping in place so do not expect any showers or storms to pop up
Friday or Saturday (at least that`s the thinking right now).

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 334 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...

The upper level pattern shows mainly ridging over the eastern conus
with troughing dipping down from Canada and over the northern plains
and rockies through most of the extended.  Very little progress is
made in this pattern...probably due to the tropical activity off the
eastern sea board gumming up the works.  Toward the end of the
period (middle of next week)...this trough begins to shift east over
the Great Lakes...which may finally flip the pattern to a more
seasonal airmass.

Closer to the surface...the aforementioned pattern keeps a surface
front draped across the plains, patiently waiting to make eastern
progress.  It finally does so late on Tuesday into Wednesday...which
will introduce the first chance for rainfall to the area.
Temperatures will go from near record highs on Sunday...to some
relief on Tuesday...and finally near normal for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 658 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

VFR conditions continue at all TAF sites through this evening.
However, a blossoming cloud shield and associated convection
across eastern WI will gradually push eastward overnight and as a
result, a period of MVFR/IFR cigs will be possible late tonight
into early Thursday morning.

Low end LLWS will also be possible this evening, primarily at
MBL/TVC.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Winds will continue to veer to southerly to southwesterly today
until a cold front passes late tonight for Lake Michigan...where
they will become northerly through the morning hours and then back
to southerly Friday and beyond. Lake Huron`s wind will remain
southerly to southeasterly. Thunderstorms are possible late tonight
for Lake Michigan and Lake Huron during the morning and afternoon
hours. Winds will remain below advisory levels.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MG
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...KB
AVIATION...MG
MARINE...TL