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000
FXUS63 KAPX 091128
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
728 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH...ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO PUSH
BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY.
A SERIES OF CLIPPERS WILL PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH...BRINGING ONLY
VERY SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BEHIND A
DEPARTING STRONG CLIPPER.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

CIRRUS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING IN FROM THE NW...SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO TIMING THIS IN BUT NOTHING MAJOR. CAN ALSO DELAY THE
INTRODUCTION OF -SN INTO EASTERN UPPER BY A COUPLE HOURS. A SMALL
AREA OF STRATUS HAS FORMED ALONG THE US-131 CORRIDOR FROM GRR TO
CAD...WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS MOVING EASTWARD AND THEN MIXING OUT
THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

CURRENTLY, HIGH PRESSURE IS STRETCHED OUT OVER THE STATE WITH THE
CORE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UPSTREAM, THE NEXT SYSTEM
IS ROUNDING THE 500 MB RIDGE IN ALBERTA WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WATERS REGION NORTH OF
MINNESOTA. LOOKING AT THE CANADIAN RADARS LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA TOWARD ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE ARRIVAL AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION AS IT ENTERS
THE FORECAST AREA.

TODAY...MODELS SEEM TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS DAY`S RUN
WITH THE BULK OF THE FORCING JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS LEAVES THE SMALL AREA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH MAINLY E UPPER AS THE
MAIN SFC TROUGH BEGINS TO WASH OUT AS IT LOSES UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FROM THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING THAT IS BEGINNING TO BY 00Z. THIS LEAVES
MAINLY THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH IS JUST INTO THE REGION.
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE PRECIPITATION AREA ON MOSAICKED CANADIAN RADAR
WOULD PUT THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN E UPPER AND NORTH AND
EAST OF THE ANJ ABOUT WHERE THE ECMWF IS PEGGING THE PRECIPITATION.
LOOKING AT THE GOING FORECAST, THE POPS SEEM REASONABLE AS THE MORE
LIKELY PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN ONTARIO AS THE MAIN ISENTROPIC AND
DYNAMIC FORCING MOVES ALONG A LINE FROM CYXZ TO ROUGHLY CYZE.

TONIGHT...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SFC
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN A BIT AND A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE BOUNDARY WATERS REGION, UPSTREAM OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THE ONLY ISSUE THAT KEEPS THIS FROM HAVING MUCH IN THE
WAY OR PRECIPITATION IS THE LAKE OF MOISTURE IN N LOWER BELOW 700 MB
(850 MB RH < 60%) WITH THE BEST MOISTURE JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE
E UPPER. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS AS
WELL (700-500 MB RH BETWEEN 70&80% DEPENDING ON THE MODEL) SO WILL
KEEP THE SPRINKLE/FLURRY IDEA IN AS WELL. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE AS THE WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

SPRING AND WINTER WILL CONTINUE TO WAGE AN INDECISIVE WAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES. WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A FAST-MOVING
CLIPPER SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH MONDAY. GIVEN POST-CLIPPER COLD
ADVECTION IS INITIALLY UNIMPRESSIVE...RELATIVE WARMTH WILL LAST INTO
TUESDAY. SHARPLY COLDER AIR ENTERS THE REGION FOR WED/THU. TEMP
TRENDS...AND UNIMPRESSIVE PRECIP CHANCES...REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES.

MONDAY...CLIPPER SHORTWAVE WILL RACE ESE-WARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AT MIDDAY MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW IS ALMOST COLLOCATED WITH THE
500MB VORT MAX...AND WILL BE 994MB-ISH NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY BY
EVENING. THE CORE OF STRONGEST FORCING/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TO THE LEFT OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...AND THUS WILL BE
COMFORTABLY NORTH OF MI. HOWEVER...ONE WAVE OF ISENTROPICALLY-
GENERATED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM W TO
E IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LINGERING DRY AIR IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER WILL TRY TO KEEP THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP VIRGA...AND BY AND
LARGE IT/S LIKELY TO SUCCEED. THE IDEA OF SEEING JUST SPRINKLES
AND/OR FLURRIES WITH THIS ACTIVITY STILL SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
NORTHERN LOWER AND THE STRAITS AREA. CHIPPEWA CO IS ABOUT THE ONLY
PLACE THAT STILL SEEMS TO WARRANT A POP...WITH EVAP COOLING SHOULD
OVERCOME 850-800MB TEMPS OF 0 TO +1C TO RESULT IN JUST A CHANCE OF
SNOW. NO LONGER A NEED TO MENTION FREEZING PRECIP ANYWHERE.

AFTER THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DEPARTS...THERE WILL BE A HEALTHY
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION. NAM SOUNDINGS ARE LOCKED IN ON
THE SNOW-COVERED GROUND AND LOOK COLD/MOIST/STRATUS-Y BELOW
925MB...BUT THIS IS A KNOWN BIAS DURING THE TRANSITION FROM WINTER
TO SPRING. STRATUS MAY ENTER THE PICTURE THAT NIGHT...BUT IS
UNLIKELY TO DO SO DURING THE DAY. SO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS
FOR THE PM...WITH EASTERN UPPER A CLOUDIER EXCEPTION AS MOISTURE
EXTENDS UP TO ALMOST 850MB.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...WE/VE BEEN OVERACHIEVING ON MAX TEMPS RECENTLY.
WILL THUS LEAN TOWARD THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

MON NIGHT/TUESDAY...THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS
NORTHERN MI EARLY MONDAY EVENING. INITIAL COLD ADVECTION IS NOT
TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH 850MB TEMPS LOWERING TO 0C SOUTH AND -6C
NORTH. COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION...AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA. CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE
OCCURRING ALONG THE INITIAL COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
DEVELOPING MOIST PLUME WILL ARC FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD FAR
SOUTHERN LAKE MI ON TUESDAY. SIMILARLY...A POST-SECONDARY FRONT
MOIST BAND WILL SLOWLY SAG DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO...BUT NOT
QUITE REACH HERE BY LATE TUESDAY. THESE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER (ESPECIALLY TUESDAY)...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A PRECIP
THREAT.

THE LACK OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION UNTIL LATER TUESDAY WILL ALLOW US
TO SQUEEZE IN A MILD NIGHT AND A SEMI-MILD DAY. MINS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30F. MAX TEMPS WILL BE JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY (MID 30S TO NEAR 40F)...THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
FALLING LATE IN THE DAY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...AS A SHARP UPPER TROF DIGS FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND AXIS OF PRECIP NORTH OF IT WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN LAKES. WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL WITH A COLD BUT
DRY FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD...HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS CONSIDERABLY ON WED NIGHT...WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN MI (AS WE HAVE SEEN ALL TOO OFTEN THIS
WINTER). WARM ADVECTION BEGINS THURSDAY AND BECOMES MORE TELLING ON
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 40F ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER. STRONGER
WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO RESULT IN SMALL CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIP IN
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THU NIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

VFR TODAY. MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SETTLE A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH. A CLIPPER SYSTEM NOW NORTH OF WINNIPEG WILL MOVE
QUICKLY ESE TODAY...PASSING JUST NORTH OF SUPERIOR. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY...THOUGH
PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED THIS FAR SOUTH. TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASES...AND AN MVFR STRATUS DECK SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS EVENING.

SOMEWHAT GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT WEST
WINDS TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ