Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 161453

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
953 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Issued at 953 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Secondary cold front is clipping our CWA late this morning...
resulting in a brief uptick in N/NW flow lake snow shower
activity across Northern Lower Michigan. Have made a few upward
adjustments to POPs throughout the morning to account for this
trend. A look at upstream radar activity around MQT shows little
remaining lake snow production as winds back to a more westerly
component with the building ridge axis/subsidence and the arrival
of much drier low level air. Expect we will experience a rapid
decrease in lake snow activity this afternoon as the ridge axis
and drier air arrive. Any new snow amounts with this brief uptick
in snow shower activity over the next couple of hours should be
minor (i.e. under an inch).


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...Cooler today with perhaps light lake effect snows...

High impact weather potential: None.

Cold front has settled well south of MI, with cold advection in
place on nw to nnw low-level flow. Plenty of low clouds across much
of northern MI, with some breaks in eastern upper MI. Finally
have seen a bit of a lake response flare up since about 1 am,
mainly on Superior. High pressure is back in SD, and will move to
w central IL by evening, and head toward the ne states tonight.
We will transition from cold to warm advection this afternoon, and
as a result this intrusion of cooler air will be brief (not to
mention of lesser magnitude than it appeared even a couple of days

Incoming airmass is finally cold enough to get some lake effect snow
showers going, especially off of Superior into central upper MI.
Some sct snow showers this morning is still a reasonable expectation
in far western Chip/Mack Cos, and near and south of Gd Trav Bay. No
accums of note. But the arrival of somewhat colder air will be
countered by drastic drying at the mid levels between 09z and 15z.
After that, winds start to back, and inversion heights will be
further suppressed (down to 2k ft this afternoon). With backing
winds and drastic drying, do we just clear out this afternoon? We
have a lot of cloud cover presently, but guidance is screaming that
we will be mostly sunny by 1pm-ish. Will slow that down just a
little bit, but do expect sunshine to break out in a big way this

Max temps near 20f in eastern upper, in the 20s in northern lower.
This is warmer than earlier expected; cold air doesn`t make as
emphatic push into the area as it earlier appeared, and sunshine
will help counter the cooler air this afternoon.

Warm advection further ramps up tonight, but will be strongest
upstream in the upper MS Valley and over the Superior basin. 850mb
temps here only rise 2-3C. Skies will be mostly clear in the
evening, but mid and high clouds will be increasing overnight,
initially in eastern upper MI, and eventually nw lower MI. Still
some dry air below 7-8k ft, so not much in the way of precip chances
thru 12z. However, will mention a very small chance of light snow in
far western Chip/Mack Cos after 4 am.

Min temps in the mid single digits above zero to mid teens.


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 322 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

High Impact Weather Potential...Accumulating snow possible over
eastern upper.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Snow/Rain chances through the weekend
and into Monday.

High pressure and accompanying dry air will begin to push eastward,
allowing return flow and ample moisture ahead of an approaching cold
front associated with a low pressure system over Hudson Bay to begin
impacted the forecast area. Widespread light snow will fall over the
entire forecast area by Saturday afternoon and move northeastward
with the aforementioned cold front by Saturday night. Behind this
there will be some chances for light lake effect snows with only
marginal delta Ts, shallow inversion heights, and decreasing
moisture as high pressure begins to build into the forecast area
once again. This high pressure and drier air will be short lived, as
another developing low pressure system on the lee side of the
Rockies will bring return flow and moisture once again to the Great
Lakes. This strong WAA and moisture along with an accompanying
shortwave will begin to produce snow Sunday afternoon through Monday
morning and begin to change over to rain from south to north as
temperatures increase Monday morning and last throughout Monday
evening. The rain/snow line appears to be in the Straits region,
once again. Accumulating snow is possible over eastern upper
Michigan Sunday night through Monday night, while minor
accumulations are expected elsewhere. Southwesterly winds will be
gusty Saturday afternoon/evening, with 20-30mph gusts possible. As
the previous forecaster mentioned...something to keep an eye on
would be blowing snow along US-2, especially with the ice over
northern Lake Michigan. Highs will be in the upper 20s over eastern
Upper to low 30s over northern lower Saturday with temperatures
moderating a bit each day as we will reach into the low 30s to low
40s by Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Strong southwesterly flow and ample moisture continues through
Tuesday night bringing periods of rain and snow through Tuesday
night before changing to all snow and becoming more scattered
through Wednesday with chances of light lake effect. High pressure
and much drier air then centers itself over the Great Lakes region
late Wednesday night, providing the forecast area with light winds,
partly sunny skies, and precipitation free weather. Temperatures
will be generally in the upper 20s to mid 30s with the exception of
Tuesday, where eastern upper will be in the upper 20s and the
southern forecast area will reach into the mid 40s. Low temperatures
Tuesday morning will be in the teens over eastern upper to the low
30s over the southern forecast area...while the rest of the period
will be in the single digits above zero to teens.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 626 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

MVFR cigs this morning, improving to VFR this afternoon.

High pressure in eastern Nebraska will pass to our south tonight.
Cool air is supporting some lake effect clouds and snow showers
this morning. These will wane toward midday, and substantial
clearing is expected this afternoon, as winds start to back. Dry
southwest low-level flow is expected tonight.

Nw winds, gusty at times today, will back toward the west this
afternoon, and become lighter from the sw by late tonight.




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