Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 132313
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
613 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: BITTER COLD TONIGHT

MAIN CONCERN: OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES

UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DIE DOWN AND
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS BY MORNING. 12Z SFC
MAP SHOWED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS IN THE -20S OVER MINNESOTA UNDERNEATH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES HERE LAST NIGHT DROPPED INTO THE
-20S OVER THE INTERIOR COLDER AREAS LAST NIGHT AND SHOULD NOT BE ANY
WARMER TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL ALSO HELP CLEAR OUT MORE AREAS TONIGHT
THAN LAST NIGHT. THIS WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND SNOWCOVER SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE -20S AGAIN OVER THE COLDEST INTERIOR
SPOTS AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A -30 READING SOMEWHERE.
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY MORNING 2/14 (LISTED IN ORDER OF MOST LIKELY
TO FALL):

GAYLORD -16 SET IN 1978
SAULT STE MARIE -21 SET IN 1899
ALPENA -17 SET IN 1970
HOUGHTON LAKE -25 SET IN 1970
TRAVERSE CITY -12 SET IN 1971

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER...CONTINUED COLD SUNDAY MORNING THEN NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED.

...MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...

NOT A FULL SCALE PATTERN SHIFT BY ANY MEANS QUITE YET DURING THE
SHORT TERM...BUT DEFINITELY NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC AIR LIFTS OUT TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND LOW WIND CHILL READINGS SUNDAY
MORNING THEN POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SUNDAY...MORE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL READINGS TO START THE
DAY...THEN THE 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO
OUR EAST TAKING THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH IT BY
AFTERNOON. SO BESIDES LINGERING MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW FAVORED LOCALS...WHICH BACKS INTO THE SOUTH IN THE
AFTERNOON...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SENSIBLE WEATHER TO TALK ABOUT WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST AREAS (ESPECIALLY INLAND).
HIGHS WILL MODERATE INTO THE TEENS...BUT A BITING SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE...SHOULD BE LIGHT (UNDER AN INCH) AS THE AIRMASS
IS PRETTY DRY (MEAN 850-700 MB RH A PALTRY 25 PERCENT AT BEST).

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...INCREASINGLY STRONG WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT (I300K) AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THIS
SHOULD LINGER INTO MUCH OF MONDAY AS WELL. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT (ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO). TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD ONLY DROP BY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
AND MIDDLE TEENS EARLY BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
MILDER MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MONDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT (LAKE/850 MB DELTA TS OF ONLY ABOUT 12
C). MY GUT FEELING IS THAT IT WON`T BE QUITE COLD ENOUGH SO WILL
ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...DEFINITELY MILDER WITH LOWS ONLY
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S.

TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A SYSTEM MOVES
HARMLESSLY BY TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT/TROUGH
LOOK TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING CHANCES FOR A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW. HIGHS IN THE SEEMINGLY BALMY LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE
NORTHERN LAKES. THAT WILL SUPPORT SNOW CHANCES TUE NIGHT-WED...AND
COLD WX TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP RIDGING
TAKE OVER AFTER THAT (NOT A MOMENT TOO SOON)...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING
SHARPLY THU-FRI. MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER HAS A GOOD SHOT OF TAKING A
RUN AT 40F ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE LOOKS LIKELY TO PUSH THRU THE
REGION FRI...WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES (MAINLY SNOW THU
NIGHT...MIXED ON FRI-FRI NIGHT). INCOMING AIRMASS BEHIND SYSTEM IS
OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...SO WE WON/T COOL OFF TOO MUCH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MAINLY
NW LWR MICHIGAN AND THE SHORELINE AREAS OF FAR NE LWR MICHIGAN
AROUND ROGERS CITY TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LAND BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AS
THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH SUNDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER...WITH
ONLY SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 309 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL
SLOWLY SLACKEN THE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL END THIS AFTERNOON AND NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ008-015>019-
     021>024-027>030-033>036-041-042.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARINA
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...FARINA


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