Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KAPX 250213
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1013 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow ends overnight.

- Rapid warming Monday leading to above normal temperatures
  through Tuesday.

- Widespread rain chances Monday night through Tuesday with gusty
  south winds peaking Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Complex area of low pressure continues to develop to the lee of
the Rockies over the Central Plains late this evening.
Associated warm front continues to approach the Western Great
Lakes region...generating a large area of mainly snow north of
this boundary. Eastern edge of this area of mainly light snow
continues to impact our entire CWA attm...with the back edge now
moving into our far southern CWA. This back edge will continue
to lift northward thru our CWA overnight...resulting in a
diminish and eventual end to snowfall from south to north across
our area. Spotter reports so far suggest most locations have
seen an inch or two of new snowfall since late this afternoon.
Expect less than an inch of additional snowfall as we head into
the overnight hours before snowfall comes to a close. Temps will
generally hold in the upper 20s overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Focus through the near-term forecast
period revolves around low pressure developing lee of the Rockies
with upper-level troughing digging across the Four Corners region.
Surface low progged to slide to near the eastern KS/NE border by
late tonight with increasing isentropic ascent supporting a period
of snow locally later this afternoon through tonight.

Accumulating snow arrives late this afternoon and evening:

Little in the way of sensible weather across much of northern
Michigan thus far today aside from increasing/thickening/lowering
clouds. Changes are in the offing over the next several hours with
snow expected to gradually develop from west to east later this
afternoon. Highest coverage of snow, associated with period of
strongest forcing,  anticipated this evening into the early
overnight across the tip of the mitt and eastern U.P. This area also
likely to coincide with greatest accumulation ranging from an inch
or two north of M-68 to the bridge, and from 2-4" across the
majority of eastern upper. Increasingly breezy southeast winds will
be the rule through the evening hours with highest gusts around 25
mph. Perhaps this allows snow to blow around a bit, especially in
open/exposed areas, but widespread blowing snow isn`t an expectation.

Farther south across northern lower, snow residence time should be
much less late this afternoon/early evening...only lasting a few
hours at most in any given location prior to shifting north.
Resultant QPF/snow accumulations expected to be lower with generally
an inch or less as you head toward the M-32 corridor and a half inch
or less near and south of M-72.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Midlevel longwave troughing spanned
across most of Canada dipping into the Upper Midwest continues to
bring another round of cool polar air into the Great Lakes region.
Large scale low pressure currently centered over central Canada
continues to pivot around Hudson Bay and continues a pattern of
active weather from time to time for the CONUS.

Midlevel shortwave troughing over the Pacific Northwest currently
progressing towards the central CONUS will provide the next
source of energy that will return active weather to the Great
Lakes region for the majority of the short term period. Surface
low pressure attached to the aforementioned shortwave will
begin with a warm front advecting northward across Michigan at
the start of the short term and returning active weather to the
CWA.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

Quiet weather begins the forecast period Monday. Winds gradually
increase before peaking on Tuesday accompanied by rain showers and
thunderstorms: Monday starts off dry. Only chances of precip
will be lingering show showers in the morning along the northern
end of the U.P as a warm from advects northward. Winds will
pick up slightly as the cold front associated with this system
develops and approaches from the west. Sustained southeastern
flow in the mid-teens with gusts up to 30 remain possible Monday
with highs in the low to mid 50s will be a relief after the
cold stretch the region has experienced last week.

Weather turns more active Tuesday ahead of the aforementioned cold
front as winds will increase to the mid 20s gusting around the 40s
accompanied by rain showers. No heavy rain is expected for any areas
as roughly a half inch or less is expected across the CWA, but
localized areas can see total QPF of around an inch as thunderstorms
can produce heavier showers (current PWATs remain around an inch).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pattern Forecast/Key Messages:

High pressure builds behind the surface based cyclone. Quiet
weather continues through the majority of the long term:
Midlevel closed low pressure will linger/drag across the Great
Lakes region on Wednesday before progressing northward and
longwave ridging begins to build across the country. Quiet
weather will remain in place for the second half of the work
week with cooler than normal temperatures as highs stay in the
30s and 40s. Next chance of precipitation comes at the end of
the forecast period as embedded shortwave midlevel troughing
moves through the upper Midwest. Current guidance does not give
many details on the system mainly due to timing of the event
being at the end of the next week but more details on impacts
and timing will come with future model runs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Widespread mainly light snow will continue to spread into
Northern Michigan this evening well in advance of a warm front
lifting northward toward the Western Great Lakes region. The
parent low now developing over the Central Plains will meander
over Kansas thru tonight and will then lift NE toward and into
the Western Great Lakes Monday into Monday night. Deep moisture
will lift out of our area late tonight and Monday as the warm
front pushes north of Michigan...giving us a break in precip
chances until Monday night when widespread rain will develop
across our area as deep moisture surges into our region ahead
of the low center. Prevailing conditions will remain MVFR this
evening with the occasional drop to IFR within some of the
heavier bands of snow. VFR conditions will return overnight and
Monday before widespread rain develops Monday night.

LLWS will develop late tonight around TVC and MBL as winds
strengthen just off the deck. Surface winds will remain from the
SE at 10 to 20 kts with some gusts to 30 kts possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Tightening pressure gradient will yield developing small craft
advisory conditions this evening/tonight through Monday on Lake
Michigan and the Straits, and through at least Monday night
elsewhere. Gale force gusts become a possibility on Tuesday,
primarily in the Lake Superior and Lake Huron nearshore zones.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ341.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...MJG
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MJG


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.