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000
FXUS61 KBUF 290613
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DEPART THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A FEW DAILY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END REGION WIDE AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES
OVER THE AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT MAINLY DRY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT 06Z. CIGS WILL
REMAIN AT 4K-6K FEET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...EVEN SOME FEW/SCT SKIES
SEEN OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. MOST CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING CIGS
DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS. SCATTERED CU WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE LIFT NORTH INTO NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT.
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL
DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY MORNING. WAVES UP TO 3 FEET EARLY WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...JM/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JM/TMA
MARINE...JM/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS