Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 040607
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
207 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES OVERNIGHT. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY...
HELPING TO FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...
A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC TO
NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAINS IN A COL OVERNIGHT...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS.

CLOUD COVER WILL VARY OVERNIGHT...WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS IN SOME
AREAS...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A JAMESTOWN TO ROCHESTER TO WATERTOWN
LINE. FOG WILL DEPEND ON WHERE SKIES CLEAR...WITH PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL MOSTLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S...WITH A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN NY AND THE GENESEE VALLEY... WITH WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THIS FEATURE IN CENTRAL NY. THIS AXIS OF
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR EVEN SOME ISOLATED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY
PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT STEEPING LAPSE RATES ALOFT MAY STILL ALLOW FOR SOME
LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL... AGAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY. ALSO...ANY STORMS WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A FEW SPOTS...WHILE OTHERS STAY DRY. 850
MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND +5C IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER- LEVEL LOW... AND WILL MAKE FOR A SLIGHTLY
WARMER DAY WEDNESDAY THAN TODAY... WITH HIGHS LIMITED BY CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN UPPER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS LEAVES A
WEAK TROUGH WITH LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED FORCING ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES REGION...RESULTING IN SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKING FAIRLY UNIFORM
GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
WITH ONLY LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED FORCING BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE TIED TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE WITH BETTER COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...
WITH THE LOWEST CHANCES ON THE LAKE PLAINS WHERE LAKE MODIFIED AIR
WILL TEMPER INSTABILITY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH
A NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES COOLER.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT THE DEPARTURE
OF THE UPPER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY AND ONSET OF MID LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES SHOULD RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES AREA AGAIN COOLER.

MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS SATURDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR
A GOOD PART OF THE DAY AHEAD OF ADVANCING ROBUST SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADIAN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
WARMING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY IN ADVANCING OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST
HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST
BREEZE WILL KEEP THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING CONTINUES TO JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS
FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES TEND TOWARD
JUST RAIN SHOWERS RATHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS...LITTLE INDICATED FOR
SIGNS OF CONVECTION IN THE CAPE/LI/K-INDEX ETC. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY...WITH 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. THE DEEP
TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT
HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 50S IN MOST AREAS...CLOSE TO 60 FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO A LITTLE CLOSER TO EARLY MAY NORMALS ON MONDAY AND
CLIMBING A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF THIS WRITING...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS FOUND FROM THE GENESEE
VALLEY EASTWARD...AND SOMEWHAT PATCHIER VFR CLOUD COVER FOUND
FURTHER WEST OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...EXPECT THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER TO
TEND TO THIN OUT A LITTLE MORE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK. WHERE CLEARING DOES MANAGE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES...AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
FOG/ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

ON WEDNESDAY...ANY PATCHY FOG THAT DOES MANAGE TO FORM OVERNIGHT
WILL MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY EARLY IN THE DAY WITH RENEWED DAYTIME
HEATING...LEADING TO A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY MID
MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE COMBINATION OF DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY SPARSE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS. WHILE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
/PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH IN
AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING/NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION. OTHERWISE GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS THEN BECOMING
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED
MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
DESPITE SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK... OVERALL WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN LIGHT...
WITH LAKE BREEZES DOMINATING EACH DAY. THUS WAVE ACTION WILL
ALSO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH/JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...APFFEL/CHURCH



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