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000
FXUS61 KBUF 190537
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
137 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COME LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 03Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE LINE OF -SHRA
CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE NORTH COUNTRY W/THE SFC FRONT.
OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA ARE SEEING PRIMARILY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...PATCHY FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
NORTH OF I-90 AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN SECTIONS WITH THE CLOUD COVER LINGERING OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY HOLDING TONIGHT TEMPS CLOSE TO LAST NIGHT`S LOW 30S.
SATURDAY HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT OVER THE COUNTRY AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD
WILL AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL
MAKE ITS WAY ASHORE AND EVENTUALLY HELP TO GENERATE OUR NEXT BIG
WEATHER MAKER NEXT WEEK. MORE ON THAT SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW. UP THROUGH THAT TIME THOUGH...THERE WILL BE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO DEAL WITH ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEG F ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL EXTEND ALL
THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST...PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH GENERALLY
STARLIT SKIES. LIGHT WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE CLEAR SKIES TO
ALLOW FOR FAIRLY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO OUR MINS WILL
RANGE FROM WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF FREEZING OVER THE WRN COUNTIES
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

THE HEART OF THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BEAUTIFUL EASTER SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF
BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL ADD SEVERAL DEGREES TO OUR H85 TEMPS...WHICH
IN TURN WILL SUPPORT A WARMER AFTERNOON (COMPARED TO SAT) AS MOST OF
WRN NEW YORK WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS OF 65 TO 70. IT WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND CERTAINLY WITHIN A COUPLE
MILES OF THE LAKES WHERE WELL DEVELOPED LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
COULD CAP AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
WILL CRUISE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE CORRESPONDING LOWERING HGTS AND DIVERGENT FLOW OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL HELP TO CONSOLIDATE A RELATIVELY BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. SINCE ANY REAL
BAROCLINICITY WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH...THIS WILL PROMOTE AN
EVEN NICER DAY FOR MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF
WRN NEW YORK WITH LOW-MID 60S EAST OF LK ONTARIO (AGAIN...NOTABLY
COOLER ALONG THE LAKE SHORES).

CONDITIONS WILL START TO DETERIORATE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE CONSOLIDATING SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND
DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO OUR DOORSTEP. SOME SHOWERS COULD
BREAK OUT IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE AMPLIFIED...BUT PROGRESSIVE...PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
CHANGEABLE WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NOT AVERAGING TOO FAR FROM
NORMAL. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...DRY WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE
THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN EVENTS WITH UNDER A
QUARTER OF INCH OF RAIN TUES/TUES NIGHT AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS
PROJECTED FOR FRIDAY.

ON TUESDAY...A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH WHILE IT
WILL PUSH ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS...BUT AS MENTIONED...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE BASE OF ITS SUPPORTING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THESE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

IN FACT...WHILE A SHARPENING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP TO IMPROVE THE WEATHER OVER THE WRN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY...AN
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY HOLD ONTO THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN
PROMOTE FAIR DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESIDUAL LINGERING CLOUDINESS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS OVERNIGHT
AS GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY WITH VFR/UNLIMITED CIGS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/CHANCE SHOWERS EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND
MINIMAL WAVES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...AR/TMA
MARINE...AR