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000
FXUS61 KBUF 051150
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
650 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO TODAY AND SWING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR REGION. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT... UNSEASONABLY MILD
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK THROUGH TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH A
RETURN TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THESE MUCH BELOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AREA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST
OF ITS CENTER ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. A SHARP COLD FRONT IS EXTENDING
SOUTH FROM THE LOW ACROSS LAKE HURON TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK CONTINUE TO
RISE THROUGH THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S UNDER A BREEZY SOUTHERLY
FLOW. RADARS ARE BARELY SHOWING SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ORIENTED ALONG
THE WARM FRONT WITH THE MAJORITY OF NEW YORK RAIN-FREE.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH AND
CENTER OVER JAMES BAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND NEW YORK STATE. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WE WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUING TO ADVECT WARM AIR NORTHWARD. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER DAY OF MILD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. RECENTLY EVEN BUMPS SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE THRUWAY
FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER UP TO 60 DEGREES. HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING THEN RAMPED
UP CHANCES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MODELS
ARE SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE LIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE BEST PROBABILITY
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY EAST OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. TEMPERATURES
FROM BUFFALO EAST TO ROCHESTER WILL BEGIN TO DROP THROUGH THE 40S
TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS AS COLDER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO WESTERN
NY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND BY 00Z THE FRONT WILL BE RUNNING DOWN THE GENESEE
RIVER VALLEY. WHILE P-TYPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN WE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON THE
BACK EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT AS TEMPS DROP TO THE LOWER 30S
OVERNIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE AREA SHOW THE COLD
AIR UNDERCUTTING THE WARM AIR ALOFT WITH A THREAT FOR SOME SLEET
MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN AND SNOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY REACH ONE TO
TWO INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO WYOMING COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF LEWIS COUNTY. THE ADDITION OF ANY SLEET MIXING WITH
SNOW AND RAIN WILL MAKE FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ON
SECONDARY ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY NIGHT`S COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE COAST...LEAVING THE LATE
MORNING AND A LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON DRY FOR MOST
AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL HOVER AROUND FREEZING FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY BEFORE DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S TO UPPER 20S BY THE END OF
THE DAY AS INCREASINGLY COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

A STRONG JET STREAK SHOOTING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL
SEND SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIPPLING ALONG THE COLD SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING PERIODS
LIGHT SNOW BACK INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
SEEING THE BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...BEST ESTIMATES ARE 1
TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA WITH
LOWER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEASONABLY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 20S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH MID 20S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
THANKS TO THE MODERATING EFFECTS OF THE LAKE UNDER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

SPEAKING OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH THE COLD AIR ARRIVING
OVER THE REGION...WE MAY SEE VERY LIMITED LAKE EFFECT DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY...HOWEVER PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO VERY DRY AIR ALOFT KEEPING EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS AROUND 5KFT ALONG WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPEED SHEAR ALOFT.
IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE CONDUCIVE
TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE MERCURY TO DROP INTO
THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH EVEN COLDER READINGS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENG LANDON SUNDAY WITH
CLOUD COVER INCREASING AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH ANOTHER
POWERFUL 180+ KT WINTERTIME JET STREAK BLASTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS SUNDAY OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE DISPLAYING REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO DEPICTING
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND ISENTROPIC UPLIFT ALONG A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS
WARM MOIST AIR LIFTS OVER THE SUBFREEZING SURFACE AIR IN PLACE ALONG
AND TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WE COULD SEE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WARM ABOVE FREEZING. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS
COULD MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING WITH PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR
THAWING OF FROZEN SURFACES.

FOLLOWING THE BRIEF WARM-UP SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING THE REGION WILL BE
PLUNGED BACK INTO WINTER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO
QUEBEC WHILE SWEEPING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
INDEED BY MIDWEEK THE BITTERLY COLD AIR CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS COULD BE MIGRATING TO THE GREAT LAKES...ALBEIT IN A SLIGHTLY
MODIFIED FORM AS  THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK THROUGH THE 30S ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME WELL ALIGNED AND THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. INDEED IT
CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE NEXT WEEK COULD BE QUITE A SNOWY ONE FOR
MANY AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AS THE COMBINATION OF COLD
AIR...CYCLONIC FLOW...AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD MAINTAIN A
GENERALLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE COMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE
WINTRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY EXCEPT ACROSS THE HILL TOPS OF THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE FOUND THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WIND TO 40 KNOTS BRINGING SOME LLWS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING THEN BY AFTERNOON
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A MORE LIKELY
PROBABILITY FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP GOING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE SURGES NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN WILL MIX
WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW WITH SOME SLEET ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
BRING SOME AREAS OF MVFR/ TEMPO IFR CIGS AND VIS MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY ACROSS THE LAKES UNTIL A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY AND DECREASE SOMEWHAT. WHILE THE HIGHEST
WAVES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND IN CANADIAN WATERS GIVEN THE
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW...WINDS TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.

WESTERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ADVISORY-TYPE WINDS AND WAVES
PERSISTING ACROSS THAT LAKE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS NOT A SURE
BET HOWEVER...SO FOR NOW HAVE HELD OFF ON EXTENDING THE EXISTING
ADVISORIES INTO/THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS AND
WAVES TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS ONLY A WEAK TO MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ044-045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH