Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 020239
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1039 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL END OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
AND MORE SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO
MORE TYPICAL MID SUMMER WARMTH BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING. JUST A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN LEWIS COUNTY
AND NORTHERN ALLEGANY COUNTY. BOTH OF THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO STABILIZE
AND ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT PULLS AWAY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
CLOUDS ALREADY ON THE INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE. THESE CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN MANY AREAS FROM THE FINGER LAKES
WESTWARD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE
PAST DAY OR SO. THE FOG WILL LIKELY BE MOST WIDESPREAD IN THE
TYPICAL VALLEY LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. FLOW JUST OFF THE
DECK APPEARS A LITTLE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW FOG TO FORM ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
AN UPSWING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
BENEATH A STEEPENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. SOME OF THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS UPSTREAM
ACROSS MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW...EXPECT
LOW STRATUS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AGAIN FOR
THE DAYBREAK TIME FRAME...BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING BEGINS TO DILUTE THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EVOLVE THE STRATUS INTO A CUMULUS FIELD WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS ALOFT AREA ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY SUMMER ON THURSDAY...SO
DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 70 ON THE HILLS. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH GREAT WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A CHANCE OF POP UP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SATURDAY/SATURDAY WITH A PASSING SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND COURTESY OF A ZONE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL BE STRETCHING ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD AS THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING COOL AIR ALOFT FROM A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THAT WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH SOME
OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AS WELL AS THE
BLACK RIVER VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD EVEN AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WELL
TO OUR NORTH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS
MAY BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THAT SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECT
ON ANY EARLY FIREWORK VIEWING.

WHILE THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE DAY COUPLED WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY IN
THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY DISSIPATING
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. SO WHILE PICNICS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE THRUWAY MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEMS BY THE TIME WE REACH
FIREWORK VIEWING SATURDAY EVENING.

THE ONE AREA WHERE FIREWORK VIEWING MAY BE AFFECTED SATURDAY EVENING
WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS AREA WILL BE IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. AS SUCH THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. SIMILARLY...NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE SCENE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON SUNDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY...PROVIDING A MOSTLY SUNNY AND INCREASINGLY
WARM END TO THE WEEKEND AND START TO NEXT WEEK. THE INCREASING
HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB FROM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 ON SUNDAY TO THE LOWER 80S ON MONDAY. LIKEWISE LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR AVERAGE...FROM THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN THE RETURN OF
A MORE HUMID AIRMASS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...PRODUCING A MORE
MUGGY FEEL MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A LARGE
TROUGH CROSSING CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A BRIEF RETURN TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE LATEST ECMWF RUN HAS SLOWED UP ON THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT...A TREND THAT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING IN FUTURE
RUNS. THEREFORE POPS WERE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE EVENING
UPDATE TO COVER FOR POSSIBLE SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH JUST A FEW LEFT ACROSS
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY.
THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE A FEW
PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR VSBY
DEVELOPING. FOG WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO...AND ALSO IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS. FOR THE TAF SITES...KJHW WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE TO
DROP TO IFR FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME AND MAY DROP TO BELOW
AIRFIELD MINIMUMS 07Z-13Z IN FOG. LOW STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL HOURS IN THE 08Z-14Z TIME FRAME WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.

ON THURSDAY THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL MIX OUT BY MID TO LATE
MORNING AND LEAVE VFR TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH 2-4 FOOT
WAVES ON LAKE ERIE AND THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO SUBSIDING
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THURSDAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE UNUSUAL EARLY SUMMER +PNA PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
IS SIMILAR TO THE PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGE OF THE PAST COUPLE
WINTERS. IN FACT...THE CURRENT 6 TO 8 MONTH PATTERN IS PART OF ONE
OF THE STRONGEST +PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST FIVE YEARS. THE CURRENT
LONG TERM PATTERN HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS OUR REGION FOR FIVE OF THE PAST PAST SIX MONTHS...INCLUDING
THE JUST ENDED MONTH OF JUNE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...SMITH/WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
CLIMATE...RSH



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