Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 280535
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
135 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINTER-LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOGETHER WITH PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.  HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE
OVER...WITH DRY BUT STILL COOL WEATHER FOR SUNDAY.  THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON TUESDAY.  A
WARM UP WILL BEGIN ON LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW
TIED TO A WELL DEFINED MESO-LOW MOVING SOUTH BETWEEN KBUF AND KROC
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS FEATURE MAY PRODUCE BRIEF SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG ENOUGH AT ANY
ONE SPOT TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BE OVER MOST OF THE REGION.  EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS...AND POSSIBLY LOWER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER WELL REMOVED FROM LAKE INFLUENCES.

ON SATURDAY...NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER A LOWERING
INVERSION WILL INITIALLY TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOME LAKE
EFFECT STILL POSSIBLE EARLY...BUT BY THE END OF THE DAY EXPECT
CLEARING FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH AS INSOLATION EATS AWAY AT THE
CLOUD DECK FROM THE TOP DOWN.  TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE
COLD SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S MORE TYPICAL OF MID WINTER THAN
LATE MARCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER LAKES.
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS IN THE COOL/DRY AIRMASS
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING DOWN
WELL INTO THE TEENS ON THE LAKE PLAINS WITH SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
COLDER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND NORTH COUNTRY.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT STILL EXPECT
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE TO FILTER THROUGH. AFTER A COLD START TO THE
DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH MID 30S NORTH COUNTRY.

WINDS CRANK UP COURTESY OF A TIGHTENING GRADIENT SUNDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW CUTTING ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO WESTERN
QUEBEC. DEEPENING MIXING INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES. THERE COULD BE A WINDOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE EARLY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SPORTS BUT RISING
READINGS SHOULD BE THE RULE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS IMPROVED AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL RUNS WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY EVENING
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL BE A HYBRID OF MID
LEVEL PACIFIC AND LOW LEVEL GULF MODIFIED CONTINENTAL WHICH IS SEEMS
ADEQUATE FOR THE QUARTER INCH OR SO OF MODEL QPF. THERE WILL BE SOME
WET BULB COOLING GIVING THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR EVEN
PLAIN SNOW.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC MONDAY.
THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING A
SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME CONTINUING DURING THE MID TO LATE
PART OF THE WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES WORKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND MAKING A RUN AT WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING THE EXACT
PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF EACH WAVE...WITH RUN-TO-RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY NOT EXACTLY HIGH AND NOT SURPRISING AT ALL GIVEN THE
PATTERN SETUP. 00Z ECMWF BY FAR THE MOST ROBUST ASCENT SIGNAL RIDING
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...WITH ACTUALLY SOME MODEST
SUPPORT FROM GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS WAVE WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED...AS FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL OR
SOME SOME SNEAKY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
SHOULD IT PLAY OUT.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE UNDER SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.

A STRONGER PUSH OF WARMING IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AS A NEW SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL LAKES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MUCH BETTER
SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME
FRAME WITH A STRONGER WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S OR PERHAPS A BIT WARMER DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT THEN THE GFS...ECMWF...AND MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ALLOW THE TROUGH TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED AGAIN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST BY THE FIRST WEEKEND IN APRIL. IF THIS VERIFIES
TEMPERATURES WOULD AGAIN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF IFR SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE NEXT
2-4 HOURS AS A WELL DEFINED MESOSCALE CIRCULATION MOVES SOUTH
BETWEEN KBUF AND KROC AND ENHANCES SNOWFALL RATES...WITH BRIEF
POCKETS OF MODERATE OR EVEN HEAVY SNOW FALLING MAINLY BETWEEN THE
TWO TAF SITES. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS...WITH IFR IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO EXPECT MUCH BETTER CONDITIONS WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME
VFR CIGS AND A FEW FLURRIES.

THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY WITH VSBY IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR.
CIGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE FROM MVFR IN THE MORNING TO MAINLY VFR BY
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME MIXING. TONIGHT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...EXCEPT FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND LOCAL MVFR CIGS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAINLY EAST OF KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF WESTERN NY TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW A MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW TO CROSS THE REGION
RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE THROUGH SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OH
VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ030-
         042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...ZAFF




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