Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 210548
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
148 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE ALSO HELPING TO CIRCULATE WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR OVER OUR REGION. THE BRIEF SPELL OF UNCOMFORTABLE WEATHER
WILL THEN COME TO AN END WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL USHER IN NOTABLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...WITH JUST AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER PASSING ACROSS THE REGION.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE EAST COAST ON
MONDAY...WHILE WEAK TROUGHING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL `LIFT OUT`
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WILL GENERALLY KEEP
FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REGION...ALTHOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING
CIRCULATED NORTHWARD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COUPLED
WITH A WEAKLY DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SOME DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL KEEP CHC
POPS IN PLACE FOR THIS PARTICULAR AREA...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING A
`WASH OUT` BY ANY MEANS.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOUT 3-5 DEG F HIGHER THAN
THOSE FROM TODAY...TRANSLATING INTO READINGS OF 80 TO 85 ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAINS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE A WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH ACROSS UPSTATE
NEW YORK THROUGH MIDWEEK. ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL
CLIMB 1000-2000 J/KG BUT THE LACK OF A DEFINED TRIGGER COMBINED
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LARGELY CAPPED WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. ON WEDNESDAY THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE PRESENCE HIGHER CAPE VALUES
WILL BRING A MORE LIKELY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. WEDNESDAY EVENING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS
TO CLIMB TO 40 KTS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WHICH MAY BRING AN THREAT
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE VALLEYS
AND ALONG THE ONTARIO LAKESHORE WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TOWARD 70
DEGREES. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
COOLER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MUGGY SIDE WITH THE
CLIMBING DEWPOINTS.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL BEING A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE
AIRMASS THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S AND
DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COOLER TEMPS AND DRIER AIR WILL OPEN THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASING
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT COMFORTABLY COOL TEMPS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SOMEWHAT COOLER
AND DRIER AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION FOR ONE MORE DAY. STRONG
LATE JULY SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST
AREAS AFTER THE COOL START TO THE DAY...WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
STILL REMAIN ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SETUP
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE COMFORTABLY COOL
NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE REGION DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SUNDAY. SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO REMAIN DRY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW SHOWERS BEING INTRODUCED ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST HELPING TO ADVECT IN
INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWERS 80S DURING BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE AS READINGS ACROSS MOST
AREAS ONLY FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 06Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER...LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
CYCLE.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
RIVER VALLEYS. THIS IFR/LIFR FOG WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE KJHW
TERMINAL BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z...BEFORE DAYTIME MIXING IMPROVES
VISIBILITIES AND THE BANK OF FOG ERODES.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS PERIOD. A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM...BUT MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER...AND INTO THE
FINGER LAKES REGION AND MISS THE 5 TAF SITES. THEREFORE AT THIS TIME
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH PATCHY IFR FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND THEN AGAIN FORMING AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR BECOMING
LIKELY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE ALSO PRODUCING
SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/RSH
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR/RSH






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