Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 042155
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
555 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AS A RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
LEVELS FOR EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 4 PM RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THESE ARE LOOSELY FOCUSED ALONG AN
INVERTED TROUGH...WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION HELPING TO PROVIDE
LIFT. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THESE WILL DRIFT WEST AND INTO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN
FINGER LAKES REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS ARE VERY SPARSE WITH MINIMAL
COVERAGE. LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 60 IN
DRY AREAS...WITH 50S IN SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...THE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS SHOULD TEND TO QUICKLY
FADE AND DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THIS EVENING...THOUGH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY MAY STILL MANAGE TO HANG ON THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE
INVERTED TOUGH AS IT SHIFTS WESTWARD AND WEAKENS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AVERAGING OUT IN THE MID 40S.

ON THURSDAY A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO LAKE ONTARIO. THE MAJORITY OF THE ORGANIZED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL FOLLOW THE CLOSED LOW INTO THE CAROLINAS...
WITH VERY WEAK PERIODS OF DPVA AND CONVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BE
PARTIALLY TIED TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE WITH THE GREATER CHANCES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WELL INLAND FROM
THE LAKES. COVERAGE WILL BE LOWEST ON THE LAKE PLAINS WITH SOME
STABILIZING INFLUENCE FROM THE LAKES...WITH EXTENDED RAIN FREE TIME
IN MANY AREAS. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS THURSDAY...WITH SOME MID 60S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE MORE LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION RISK
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED
TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS AND DEEPER MOISTURE PIVOTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. AREAS CLOSER TO THE
LAKES AND CANADIAN BORDER WILL LIKELY SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER IN
MOST AREAS WITH A FEW POCKETS OF LOWER 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER AND LEWIS COUNTY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL DEPEND ON
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE WARMEST AREAS
LIKELY TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS.

THE PESKY CLOSED LOW WILL STILL BE MEANDERING AROUND THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN AT THIS SAME TIME. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS FRIDAY TO SLOWLY WANE OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

BY SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
LOWER LAKES BETWEEN THE WEAKENING CLOSED LOW AND A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING A MAINLY DRY DAY.
THERMAL RIDGE NOSING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES NEARING +8C WILL SUPPORT LOWER 70S FOR INTERIOR
SECTIONS IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE IS REALIZED.

SATURDAY NIGHT A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN LIKELY PROBABILITIES
FROM CONTINUITY. SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BY MAY STANDARDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO BELOW
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MANY AREAS. THE
PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON 12Z ECMWF AND GFS
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG A WARM FRONT INTO THE LOWER LAKES
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. THIS FRONT AND AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN THE FRONT IS
SUPPRESSED BACK TO THE SOUTH BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL
NEW YORK...EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHICH
INCLUDES THE ART TERMINAL. ELSEWHERE COVERAGE WILL BE VERY
SPARSE.

TONIGHT...ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE. EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...HOWEVER
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT LOW STRATUS OR FOG WILL DEVELOP FROM
BUF-IAG-ROC-JHW. BOTH NAM/HRRR GUIDANCE SHOW THIS DEVELOPING AFTER
06Z...HOWEVER IT WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR
THIS EVENING. FOR NOW TAFS HINT AT THIS POTENTIAL WITH SCATTERED
IFR CLOUDS. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY...WITH ANY
FOG/STRATUS WHICH DOES DEVELOP LIKELY TO DISSIPATE BY MID-LATE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY...THEN MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
TO MODEST WINDS PREDOMINATING...ALONG WITH CORRESPONDINGLY MINIMAL
WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL/CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH/JJR



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