


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
904 FXUS61 KBUF 130539 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 139 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach the area Sunday...and in the process will generate widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. In the wake of the front drier weather will return on Monday, along with somewhat cooler temperatures and less humidity. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of this writing any diurnally-driven convection has come to an end with the loss of daytime heating. Looking ahead through the rest of tonight...we can expect a sultry night with a modest southerly flow of subtropical warmth and moisture advecting across our region out ahead of an approaching trough and cold front. Lows will range from the upper 60s across the interior portions of the Southern Tier/North Country to the mid 70s across the lake plains...along with surface dewpoints ranging within a few degrees of 70. Given this airmass...there will be a continued chance of a few showers and thunderstorms as we push through the night...particularly during the second half of the night as a shortwave trough begins to impinge upon our area. Some patchy valley fog will also become possible within the Southern Tier river valleys later on tonight. Another warm and humid day expected Sunday, but it does not look quite as hot as this afternoon. That being said...some of the warmest heat indices could still get into the lower 90s along the lake plains/Genesee Valley/northern Finger Lakes. All this heat and humidity will be out ahead of an approaching cold front slowly pushing into the region, resulting in increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable water values rising to 2+" will bring the risk of locally heavy rainfall. Flooding concerns will certainly be elevated during this time, especially from slower moving and/or training thunderstorms. The greatest threat will be from the interior Southern Tier through the Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario. Main surface cold front doesn`t make it through the area until Sunday night with convection ending fairly quickly behind the passage of the front. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure behind a cold front will bring fair weather, and lowering dewpoints Monday and Tuesday. As this surface high shifts eastward Wednesday a southernly return flow of very warm and humid air will bring the return of uncomfortable conditions (heat index values upper 80s to lower 90s) with a small chance for an afternoon thunderstorm. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A humid (PWATS 1.75") and a very warm airmass (surface temperatures in the 80s) Thursday will be accompanied with showers and thunderstorms upon a warm front...with additional lift for storm development supported by the passage of a mid level shortwave trough. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue Thursday night through Friday with the approach and passage of a cold front. Uncertainty increases to start next weekend as a few 12Z models depict a slower passage to this cold front with a surface wave upon which would linger showers and thunderstorms into the start of next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Convection has waned for the time being but we still could see a pop- up storm overnight. Otherwise...most area terminals will see VFR. There may some spots that see fog across the S. Tier but too `low` of confidence to include in the TAF for KJHW. A slow-moving cold front will approach our region Sunday and trigger the development of fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms (some with locally heavy rainfall) between the late morning and afternoon hours. These may produce brief/localized reductions (mainly in visibility) to MVFR or even IFR...with VFR conditions otherwise prevailing. Outlook... Sunday night...Showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions across the eastern two-thirds of the area diminishing from west to east...otherwise VFR with some IFR/MVFR in lower ceilings possible across the interior of the Southern Tier/North Country overnight. Monday and Tuesday...VFR. Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm. && .MARINE... Light winds and minimal wave action will prevail through tonight. A slow moving cold front will then bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Sunday night. Winds will pick up a bit ahead and with the front, but will still remain well below any headline criteria. Behind the front...winds will be fairly light Sunday night through Tuesday as high pressure builds in across the lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through late tonight for NYZ003>006-008-013-014-021. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA SHORT TERM...Thomas LONG TERM...Thomas AVIATION...AR/JJR MARINE...AR/JJR/TMA