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000
FXUS61 KBUF 130444
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1144 PM EST THU DEC 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF BOTH EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AS A VERY COLD AIR MASS LINGERS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOMORROW WILL CARRY LAKE
SNOWS SOUTHWARD...AND SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASE THE SNOWS BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER ANY WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL REACH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY OFF LAKE ERIE SHOWS THE INTENSE BAND FROM EARLIER HAS
DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY...MOVED SOUTH...AND ALSO SPREAD OUT SOME AS
LOW LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES A LITTLE. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS AND
SOUTHERN GENESEE COUNTY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTY. THE SNOW WILL NOT BE AS INTENSE
AS BEFORE...BUT SHOULD BE PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO STILL PRODUCE SOME
LOCAL 4-8 INCH AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD FOCUS ON
SOUTHERN ERIE AND WESTERN WYOMING COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN MOVE JUST A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH LATE TONIGHT.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO THE BAND REMAINS INTENSE...WITH 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR
WITHIN THE HEART OF THE BAND. THE SNOW HAS MOVED A LITTLE NORTH INTO
THE WATERTOWN AREA AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY. EXPECT THE BAND TO
REMAIN THIS FAR NORTH FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT
BACK SLOWLY SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL TUG HILL BY LATE TONIGHT. PEAK
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE TUG
HILL WHERE ANOTHER 10-18 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IF THE BAND
REMAINS IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH.

LATE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT...THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE ONTARIO. IN ADDITION TO
THE LAKE SNOWS A SHARP WIND SHIFT WILL BRING A RIBBON OF ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND WITH THE STILL GOOD MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS EXPECT A BURST OF SNOW ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER
DURING FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY PICK UP THE ENTIRE LAKE
ONTARIO BAND AND PUSH IT BODILY ONSHORE WHILE IT KEEPS ITS EAST/WEST
ORIENTATION. THIS WOULD BRING A QUICK BURST OF HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF
THE SOUTH SHORE...BUT THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND SHORT RESIDENCE TIME
MAY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO A FEW INCHES.

THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
BUT SHOULD BE IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENED STATE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
SEVERAL MORE INCHES POSSIBLE.

BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE DIMINISHING WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW LARGELY CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

EXPECT ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL AGAIN DROP DOWN INTO THE TEENS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY
ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. IN THE TYPICAL
COLDER SPOTS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP BELOW
ZERO.

TOMORROW HIGHS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS OR
LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WHILE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20 ARE LIKELY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN STEADY OR DROP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WIND CHILLS TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND DOWN TO -5 TO -10F BELOW ZERO INLAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WIND CHILLS
WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD SNOWS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. LATEST MODEL DATA...
ALTHOUGH THE NAM WHICH SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER...CONVERGING ON
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE
THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...
WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS BOTH UPPER WAVES APPROACH THE REGION
ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL WAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF SNOW SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOK TO
CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE TRACKS INTO THE
LOWER LAKES...ALTHOUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT DOES. THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SURFACE REFLECTION LOOKS TO BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE NEAR
OR OFF THE EAST COAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
HEIGHT FALLS CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS WILL TRANSFER ENERGY TO THE
COASTAL LOW. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AT LEAST
SEVERAL INCHES OF SYNOPTIC SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME...WE WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT
THIS POINT TO COVER THE ANTICIPATED THREAT.

AFTER THIS...A BROAD WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL
RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LAKE SNOWS BY LATER SUNDAY. OVER-LAKE
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT...BUT MOISTURE AND
SHEAR PROFILES NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY LIMIT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS AS DRIER AIR LOOKS TO GREATLY DIMINISH FAVORABLE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION...WITH RATHER LOW LAKE EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS. LAKE SNOWS SHOULD WIND DOWN LATER MONDAY AS SHEAR PROFILES
INCREASE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PICKS UP. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN
FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A CLIPPER LOW ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOWS WORKING ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THIS TIME
FRAME. BEHIND THIS CLIPPER LOW THERE LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER SHOT OF
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WHICH MAY REINVIGORATE LAKE SNOWS ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT THIS MAY BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW ARRIVES ACROSS
THE REGION BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL BE THE FOCUS THIS TAF CYCLE. EXPECT
IFR AND LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITHIN THE SNOW BANDS...WHILE
OUTSIDE OF SNOWBANDS VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

IN THE WEST...LAKE SNOW BAND HAS MOVED SOUTH OF KBUF/KIAG/KROC AS OF
LATE EVENING. EXPECT IT TO SETTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHERN TIER
WITH LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS TO KJHW AFTER 06Z...AND AS WINDS SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER TO
IFR/LIFR AFTER 11Z THROUGH 19Z ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
SOME LAKE SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KIAG AND KROC DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...A FULL LAKE FETCH SNOW BAND WILL START MOVING
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND INTO OSWEGO COUNTY LATE
TONIGHT...AWAY FROM KART.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...IFR WITH SNOW...TAPERING OFF EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. IFR WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A DEEP POOL OF COLD AIR OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES RIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND...AND PASSAGE OF SEVERAL SURFACE WAVES/LOW PRESSURES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SOLID ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN HALF
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME BORDER LINE GALE STRENGTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. WILL ISSUE A
GALE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO TO COVER FOR THIS
POTENTIAL. WILL ALSO PLACE SMALL CRAFTS ON THE NIAGARA RIVER FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008-
     012-019-020-085.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...THOMAS