Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 162053
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
453 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region tonight leading to a cold
night with the first frost of the season for many areas. This
high pressure will remain in place and bring an extended period
of dry weather Tuesday through the end of the week with
temperatures warming to above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered lake effect rain showers continuing south and southeast of
Lake Ontario. This activity will gradually wind down through early
evening as high pressure continues to advance toward the area.

High pressure moves in tonight resulting in diminishing backing
winds and clearing skies. This will result in good radiational
cooling conditions, with low temperatures falling well into the
30s with the coldest locations dipping into the 20s. Frost
advisory will remain in effect for areas where the growing
season continues.

The ridge slides to our south Tuesday resulting in a milder
southwest flow under abundant sunshine. Temperatures will
respond nicely with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather will continue through the midweek with subtle warming
each day.  There won`t be any significant amplifications to the
large scale pattern - only small shortwaves within a mostly zonal
flow. At the surface, the main feature will be a high pressure along
the mid Atlantic coast.  This will allow WSW flow aloft to bring in
a little warmth from the midwest, but appreciable warmth will have
to wait until the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
There remains 100 percent confidence that this period will feature
fair dry weather with well above normal temperatures...as a 590dm
H5 ridge centered over the Tennessee Valley will drift east to
the coast of the Carolinas. The stacked high pressure system will
keep our skies sunny each day...with H85 temperatures in the teens
c supporting the mid September like warmth. The mercury will climb
well into the 70s for all areas by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At 18Z VFR cigs are in place, and this is due to lake effect clouds
which have developed behind a cold front with bases 3000-4000 feet.
Scattered rain showers southeast of Lake Ontario will weaken
through early evening.

Expect widespread VFR conditions to develop by this evening which
will last through tonight. Local IFR valley fog expected late
tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Saturday...VFR except for local IFR in river
valley fog each late night and early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to fresh breezes will continue on the lower Great lakes
with small craft conditions remaining in place on Lake Ontario
this afternoon. There will be a period of lower winds and waves
tonight as high pressure crest over the lakes.

Another period of stronger southwest winds will develop Tuesday.
This will likely bring a round of Small Craft Advisory conditions to
Lakes Erie and Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
     NYZ001>006-010-011-013-014-019-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA



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