Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 030244
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1044 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PRODUCING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY WITH A
RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...RADAR SHOWS JUST A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN OUR CWA...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION WHICH WILL LEAVE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION DRY.
A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO...THE ADDED BOOST OF LAKE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF FROM THIS SOLUTION
SOMEWHAT BUT SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR STILL DEVELOPS SOME SHOWERS.
PAST EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT EVEN WEAK BOUNDARIES CAN PRODUCE
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WARM LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MORE FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LONGER SEPTEMBER NIGHTS.
MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT MORE DENSE FOG WILL
FORM ONCE AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. MAY ALSO SEE
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOP OVER AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE BUFFALO AREA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY
SHORELINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY. GIVEN WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
AND WEAK FORCING COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE. THE
LAKE PLAINS FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORE TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
ROCHESTER SHOULD SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW SPREADS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS INLAND.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES A LITTLE COOLER. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE MAKING FOR ANOTHER HUMID DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD IN THIS PERIOD PER LATEST GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...

WARM AND DRY LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK UPPER LOW
STALLED UNDERNEATH A LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS
MICHIGAN WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND ADVECT SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

DEW POINTS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S WHICH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL LESS HUMID. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS
WHICH SHOULD DROP TO NEAR THESE DEW POINT VALUES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS. FOG SHOULD FORM EACH NIGHT...BUT THE DRIER AIR MASS
SHOULD RESULT IN LESS WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE MORE TYPICAL VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND MAYBE ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE MID 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD
FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON LABOR DAY INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

12Z GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH THIS AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN A BIT TOWARD MID-WEEK
THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE. CONSENSUS HAS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS LIKELY TO DROP
ACROSS OR INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT TUESDAY
NIGHT. THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THIS BOUNDARY BACK TOWARD THE
REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE 03Z TAF CYCLE...FOG HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z BUFFALO SOUNDING SHOWING A GENERALLY DRIER
AIR MASS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP...WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MOST LIKELY TO
IMPACT JHW. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD ALSO FORM AS A TROUGH DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH IFR CONDITIONS ALSO LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AT
ART...WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR LOW VSBY AT BUF/IAG/ROC.

ON THURSDAY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP...WITH MOST OF THESE LIKELY TO MISS TAF LOCATIONS. ANY
IMPACT WOULD BE BRIEF. CONDITIONS MAY START OFF IFR OR LOWER IN
SOME SPOTS...BUT THESE SHOULD IMPROVE AS LOW MOISTURE EVENTUALLY
MIXES OUT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ON BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
CHOPPY WAVE ACTION...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK


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