Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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716
FXUS61 KBUF 141159
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
659 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY.
WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISHING BY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A PAIR OF SYSTEMS
POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. WIDESPREAD NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPRAY THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. LESSER ACTIVITY STREAMING OFF LAKE ERIE SOUTH OF
BUFFALO. SNOWFALL HAS BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT...AND CONTINUES TO SHOW
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING LOW LEVELS.

ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG LAKESHORE
AREAS THIS MORNING...THEREFORE ADVISORY HEADLINES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED.

BITTERLY COLD REGIONAL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING IN THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS AND NEGATIVE TEENS TO EVEN AS COLD AS NEAR 35 BELOW
AT WATERTOWN. WIND SPEEDS ARE CONTINUING TO DIMINISH BUT STILL
REMAIN ELEVATED JUST ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE CONTINUATION OF THE
WIND CHILL WARNING FOR AREAS EAST OF ROCHESTER THIS MORNING.

THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTS TO RETREAT BY THIS
AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS BITTER AS SATURDAY. EXPECT
HIGHS GETTING JUST ABOVE ZERO AROUND THE NORTH COUNTY AND PERHAPS
NEAR 10 ABOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TWO SHORTWAVES SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME.

THIS FIRST WAVE...OVER NE/SD THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL SPREAD
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES BY.
THERMAL PROFILES ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT FALLS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. BY MONDAY NIGHT THERE IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY CREEPING INTO THE FORECAST AS THE TOP OF THE
MOISTURE LAYER IS STRIPPED FROM THE SNOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THERE
WILL A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

THE SECOND WAVE...OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA THIS SUNDAY MORNING WILL
DROP ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL THEN PICK UP A
SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL THEN
DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS.
HERE IS WHERE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
APPALACHIANS...IT MAY FORM A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA TUESDAY AS PER THE 00Z ECMWF. THE 00Z GFS TRACKS
DEEPENS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALSO THERE
IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH WARM AIR PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO
OUR REGION TUESDAY. LATEST SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NEARLY SPLIT AS
TO THE P-TYPE...WHETHER PLAIN RAIN OR SNOW. FOR NOW WILL LEAN
TOWARDS MORE SNOW THAN RAIN...ON ACCOUNT FOR DYNAMIC COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF PRECIPITATION FORMING ALONG A DECENT 850
HPA FRONTOGENETIC ZONE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THIS
FRONTOGENETIC BAND WILL FORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE GENESEE VALLEY
AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY TO THE
TRACK...THERMAL PROFILES AND WHERE A HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION
MAY MATERIALIZE...WITH THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY STORM SYSTEM
WILL MENTION FOR NOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
HWO PRODUCT.

TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME
MAY BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURE READINGS MONDAY WILL CLIMB TO NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK...WHILE ON TUESDAY THE AIRMASS WILL WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TRAILING THE TUESDAY STORM...LINGERING TROUGHINESS WILL KEEP CHANCES
FOR WINTER WEATHER IN PLACE MIDWEEK THEN A WAVY ZONAL PACIFIC MID-
LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
PACIFIC FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY SEAL OFF ANY ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY...A
TRAILING WEAK CLIPPER OR SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT
LAKES BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
BRIEFLY CLIMB TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10KFT.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LATTER SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING RENEWED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR REGION...WITH ANY PRECIP LIKELY
CHANGING OVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WARMS ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN CHANGEOVER BACK TO CHANCES
OF SNOW SATURDAY WITH COOLER FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DIMINISH SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND AT THE
WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR
AND THEN VFR. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST LONGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH AREAS OF IFR THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY FROM JUST EAST OF
KROC TO KFZY. THIS TOO WILL SLOWLY END SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND BRINGS
DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE DAY TODAY. LINGERING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITION ON EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE BY
MIDDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THEN SOUTHERLY MONDAY. A LOW CROSSING THE AREA
TUESDAY WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BUT WINDS
SPEEDS SHOULD STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH NEAR
RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW ARE SOME
CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ003>008-
     021.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS



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