Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 020220
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1020 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY TRACKS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF
SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
WITH RADAR SUGGESTING AREAS OF DRIZZLE FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO CENTRAL NY. AT POINTS FARTHER FROM THE
RADAR MOST OF THIS IS BELOW THE 0.5 DEGREE BEAM...BUT SURFACE OBS
AND WEBCAMS VERIFY THE DRIZZLE. MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO
FOUND FROM NEAR ROCHESTER TO THE TUG HILL REGION NEAR A WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM
THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD...WHILE DRIZZLE TAPERS OFF ACROSS
WESTERN NY AS THE DEEPEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PULLS AWAY. SKIES WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S IN
MOST LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT FOG ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DRIZZLE AS WELL.

ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WHILE SOME LINGERING FOG
AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
HIGH WILL HELP TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A SLOW CLEARING
TREAD IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
FIRST ON THE LAKE PLAINS BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
PROGRESSING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE CLEARING WILL ARRIVE FIRST BUT THE
LONGER LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE ISSUE WILL BE THE RISK FOR SOME PATCHY FROST LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE COLDER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND OVER PARTS OF LEWIS
COUNTY WHERE THE MERCURY MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. COVERAGE WOULD
BE LIMITED AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE ANY FLAGS AT THIS
POINT.

THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL
PUMP WARMER AIR WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION
IN THE PROCESS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME DEG F HIGHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A RESULT...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WARMTH WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR AN
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACROSS UPPER GENESEE VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE SOME INTERACTION WITH A
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY COULD COME INTO PLAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING...AND WHILE GUIDANCE PACKAGES ARE NOT SUGGESTING A LOT OF
FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE...IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE AT LEAST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD THEN SUPPLY THE MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH FAIR
COMFORTABLE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WOULD BE IF THE FRONT STALLED CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION TO
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT THIS RISK LOOKS
QUITE LOW. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE MID 70S...
WITH UPPER 70S BECOMING RATHER COMMON FOR SUNDAY.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...SO WILL USE CHC POPS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES IN THE WAKE OF SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. CIGS ARE WIDESPREAD IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING
WITH A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR ON THE LAKE PLAINS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
EXPECT IFR TO BECOME DOMINANT AGAIN OVERNIGHT EVEN ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AS NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES. LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE KROC AREA EAST INTO
CENTRAL NY AND THE TUG HILL REGION WITH VSBY REDUCED TO MVFR AND IFR
AT TIMES IN THE MORE PERSISTENT DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG. FARTHER WEST
ACROSS WESTERN NY THE PATCHY DRIZZLE SHOULD SLOWLY END OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY EXPECT A STEADY IMPROVING TREND WITH CIGS BECOMING MVFR
FIRST ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE MORNING THEN VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOWER ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
IFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN MVFR LATE BEFORE SCATTERING OUT TO
VFR TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY TRACK ACROSS MID-ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND AREAS
OF DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...SMITH


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