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000
FXUS61 KBUF 311655
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1255 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A PASSING SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH CONTINUES WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NY AWAY FROM THE
LAKES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN FROM NIAGARA COUNTY TO WAYNE
COUNTY AND IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.  ANY CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARD
SUNSET.

WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND WARMING ALOFT...
EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
ON FRIDAY. DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SUITE THAT SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL
UNDERGO SOME AMPLIFICATION AS IT TRACKS FROM THE THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY INTO SATURDAY. SUBTLE COOLING ALOFT AND FAIRLY
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL LEAD TO MODEST DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION SATURDAY....SUPPORTIVE OF THE CURRENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY TIMING WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
THE THERMAL PROFILE AND THE EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHTS WILL MAINTAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY IN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.  ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. AREAS UNDER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY SEE SOME CEILINGS DOWN TO 3K FT AND VSBY
1-2SM. SCT-BKN 8-10K FT CLOUD BASES EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH
MAY HAVE TO BE WARY OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
LATE TONIGHT IF THERE IS SIGNIFICANT CLEARING.

FRIDAY WILL START TRANQUIL WITH SCT-BKN SC/AC CLOUDS...BUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO SCA ON LAKE ERIE BUT WILL DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET.  OTHERWISE WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN