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000
FXUS61 KBUF 230624
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
224 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE HUMID AIR
WILL KEEP THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. THEN EXPECT A ROUND SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONT. EXPECT COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS
AVERAGING A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SSW BREEZE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP IT
FEEL RATHER MUGGY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED NICELY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
ONTARIO...STRETCHING ROUGHLY FROM TORONTO SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN SHORELINE OF WESTERN LAKE ERIE. LINE IS PROGRESSING
EASTWARD AT A PRETTY SLOW PACE...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO POPS
AT THIS TIME. IF THIS LINE HOLDS TOGETHER MAY SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER BY DAWN OR A LITTLE
THEREAFTER.

THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE NAM12/RGEM APPEAR TO SHOW A REASONABLE
PROGRESSION FOR THIS LINE...WITH MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL HAVE
CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE NOONTIME...FOLLOWED SHORTLY
THEREAFTER BY THE COLD FRONT. HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD FALL MID TO LATE
MORNING...PROBABLY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE A MOIST PRE-
FRONTAL SW FLOW WILL CLASH WITH THE NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND 8KFT TO 10KFT DEPTH OF MOISTURE WILL YIELD
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCH AND THE
GREATEST OMEGA IS WITHIN THE LOWER MOIST LAYER...INDICATING
EXCLUSIVE WARM RAIN PROCESS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNPOURS.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR BY THE END OF THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS MAY RECOVER A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE MORNING WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH THE LAST FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
TAPERING OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LINGERING MOISTURE
FROM RAIN EARLIER WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SOME PATCHY FOG LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTY
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S EXCEPT ALONG THE LAKESHORES
AND IN URBAN AREAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK
BRINGING VERY COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY A FEW DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE. (HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S) DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL SPROUT UP THURSDAY AS OVERNIGHT MOISTURE MIXES OUT
ALONG WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE. THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. ON FRIDAY MORE IN THE WAY OF DRYING
WILL KEEP MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS WORKING IN FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF A CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SYSTEM. OVERALL VERY
PLEASANT WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AN AMPLIFYING EAST
COAST 500MB TROUGH FORECASTED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WILL BRING
BACK A THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT FOR SATURDAYS FORECAST WITH MODELS NOT IN
ALIGNMENT ON THE INITIAL UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 12Z GFS IS FASTEST BRINGING IN SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER MODELS DELAY THIS. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY ACROSS WNY BUT OVER ALL FEEL THE DAY WILL END UP
BEING DRY.

BETTER AGREEMENT DEVELOPS BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHERE MODELS SHIFT
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WITH EACH OF THESE
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE FEATURED THE
HIGHEST POPS ON MONDAY WHERE THE BEST MODEL ALIGNMENT IS FOUND IN
THE 500MB PATTERN WITH THE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
TUESDAY THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE OVER NEW YORK WITH A
CHANCE OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPS LIMITED TO THE LOW TO MID 70S NEXT WEEK WHERE WE
TYPICALLY WOULD EXPECT NEAR 80.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS
NEAR BUF/IAG TOWARD DAYBREAK...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED CONDITIONS OF LOWER CEILINGS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE MORNING IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN VFR. AFTER THIS...MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE NW FLOW. SOME OF THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS MAY REMAIN HIGH INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WILL TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS AND ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND CEILINGS
ACCORDINGLY IF NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...PATCHY IFR/MVFR CIGS AND FOG POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...SAVE FOR IFR/MVFR
IN PATCHY SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG LATER EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH
MORNING.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP EASTWARD AND ALLOW FOR A
COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME SSW. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN THIS FLOW. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WAVES 2 TO 3 FEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON BOTH LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
LESSEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JM/WCH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...APFFEL/JM
MARINE...APFFEL/JM/WCH