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000
FXUS61 KBUF 131950
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A COLD START TO TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS IT PASSES...
WITH MUCH WARMER AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE ON
FRIDAY. THE WARMUP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND USHER IN
A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF MID AFTERNOON...ONLY SOME SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE LEFT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION OTHERWISE EXPERIENCING MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD
CONDITIONS.

DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE REMNANT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO...AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS THE LOW-LEVEL
STEERING WINDS BACK TO MORE OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BRIEFLY SHOW A SLIGHT UPTICK EARLY THIS EVENING AS
DIURNAL EFFECTS DIMINISH AND IT ENCOUNTERS A LONGER FETCH...BUT THIS
WOULD BE VERY SHORT-LIVED AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. WITH THE CAPPING INVERSION
REMAINING AROUND 3 KFT...EXPECT THAT THIS WILL ONLY PRODUCE IN SOME
LOCALIZED MINOR ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD...
BEFORE FALLING APART ALTOGETHER ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING AND THICKENING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PICKS UP ALOFT. THIS SAID...THE BULK
OF THE FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD LARGELY PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE BULK
OF THE NIGHT REMAINING DRY...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER ON TONIGHT. GIVEN THE OVERALL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN AND OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW CONSEQUENTLY TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...EXPECT OUR TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT LATER THIS EVENING...
BEFORE MARKEDLY RISING OVERNIGHT. WITH RESPECT TO ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE 10 TO 15 RANGE ELSEWHERE...WITH READINGS
THEN RISING INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID-UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA
BETWEEN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ANY ASSOCIATED
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING WITH ITS
PASSAGE. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...CLOUDS WILL THIN AND SCATTER OUT
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...YIELDING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND
DRY AFTERNOON.

COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA ON AN INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BIG TIME DURING
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORTIVE OF READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND TO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S SOUTH OF THE LAKE...OR READINGS THAT WILL BE SOME 25
TO 35 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE OF THIS AFTERNOON. IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY AS
WELL AS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS OUR AREA AND A
50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ALOFT. WHILE WINDS OF THAT MAGNITUDE
WILL BE UNLIKELY TO MIX ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVEN STABLE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL
MIXING...AND LIKELY MORE SO THAN SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z NAM...WHICH
APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM ITS USUAL COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURE
BIAS. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 35 TO 45 MPH BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS FOUND ACROSS EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. IN THIS
LATTER AREA...CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT A FEW BORDERLINE ADVISORY-LEVEL
GUSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...HOWEVER FEEL THIS POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO
BE WORTH MENTIONING IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

WHILE THE WARMUP AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE TOO SHORT-LIVED
TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THAT WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...WE STILL CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A
FEW LOCALIZED HYDRO PROBLEMS DEVELOPING...PARTICULARLY ON THOSE AREA
CREEKS AND STREAMS THAT EXPERIENCED SOME ICE JAMMING EARLIER THIS
WEEK. THESE IN PARTICULAR WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS WE GO
THROUGH THE COURSE OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. FOR MORE COMPLETE
DETAILS ON THIS...PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL DROP A
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS...WHICH SHOULD MAINLY FALL AS RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS (NAM/GEM/GFS/SREF) PUTS THE STEADIEST QPF
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE...BUT THIS IS PROBABLY DUE MORE TO
OROGRAPHIC CONVERGENCE WITH TEMPERATURES FAR TOO WARM FOR ANY LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE WHERE FUNNELING ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE SHOULD
ENHANCE FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE MODESTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON...BUT THESE
SHOULD GENERALLY ONLY BRING MINIMAL ACCUMULATION TO MOST AREAS. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING...WHICH AGAIN MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT. IT WILL ALSO USHER IN ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DROP DOWN TO
AROUND -18C AT 850 MB...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY DRIER...HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE ARE IN PLACE. THE MOBILITY OF ANY LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL
LIMIT ACCUMULATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION...BUT A FEW INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE E-SE OF LAKE ONTARIO ON SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY LOWERING
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL CAUSE ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
VERY LOCALIZED. IT IS WORTH NOTING TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE LOW
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH...SO IT IS POSSIBLE A NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL
DEVELOP ON A LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE LOCALIZED
NATURE OF THIS POTENTIAL AND WILL MAINTAIN ONLY CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH 12Z
RUNS OF THE GFS/GGEM/ECMWF CONTINUING TO TRACK THE LOW JUST FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH TO KEEP OUR AREA DRY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
INSTEAD...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO RIDGE
INTO OUR REGION...WHICH WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER BUT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

12Z GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SLOWED ON THE NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A
CONSENSUS TIMING PUSHING ITS ARRIVAL BACK TO MID-WEEK. THE SLOWEST
GUIDANCE (12Z ECMWF) KEEPS US DRY UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY. THE FORECAST
WILL TAKE A CONSENSUS APPROACH...BUT KEEP A RATHER LONG PERIOD OF
CHANCE POPS TO CONVEY THE SIGNIFICANT TIMING UNCERTAINTY. THE SYSTEM
(EVENTUALLY) WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TRACK
WOULD INITIALLY BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH MODESTLY
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES COULD RISE CONSIDERABLY
WARMER THAN FORECAST IN THE MID-WEEK TIMEFRAME...OR NOT...DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. EITHER WAY...THERE IS NO
PROLONGED WARM UP ON THE HORIZON...BUT AT LEAST TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AT LEAST BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A MIX OF VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS FOUND ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE MVFR FOUND IN LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR AREAWIDE
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION...AND ACTS IN
CONCERT WITH STRONG MID-MARCH DIURNAL EFFECTS TO FURTHER WEAKEN AND
BREAK UP THE ALREADY WEAK LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BODILY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND FALL APART AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKS FURTHER AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHEARED...THOUGH THESE COULD
STILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR TO SITES FROM KFZY TO KART.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A THICKENING MID CLOUD DECK
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
AT THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIPITATION...WITH THIS LIKELY REMAINING CONFINED TO JUST SOME
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS.

ON FRIDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION AND INTO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANY ASSOCIATED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH OF OUR
REGION...WITH CLOUD COVER ALSO LIFTING AND THINNING OUT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. OVERALL...EXPECT DRY VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TOWARD EVENING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...SURFACE WINDS WILL
MARKEDLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...WITH
MANY LOCATIONS EVENTUALLY SEEING GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS....WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS STRETCHING FROM THE VCNTY OF KDKK NORTHEASTWARD TO
KBUF/KIAG.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS STILL ONGOING ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL
RELAX TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION.
A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING...USHERING IN A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR
FRIDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AND DIMINISH
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AT THIS POINT...EXPECT ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE ON
THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM NOW THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH JUST A SHORT BREAK FROM THESE COMING LATER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THIS REASON...THE EXISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THIS AREA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINING ICE-FREE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE SOME ICE JAMS IN PLACE ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
ELSEWHERE. AT THIS POINT...FLOWS ARE LIGHT AND ICE JAMS ARE STABLE.
WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...HOWEVER
THE GAUGE ON BUFFALO CREEK AT GARDENVILLE REMAINS STEADY AT FLOOD
STAGE. THE SITUATION WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BY LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...BUT AT THIS TIME FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE HEADWATERS OF THE BUFFALO CREEKS...AND WARMER ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SNOW MELT AND CAUSE FLOWS TO
INCREASE. WE ONLY ABOUT 150 THAWING DEGREE HOURS...WHICH IS
TYPICALLY NOT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAK UPS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE JAMS ALREADY IN PLACE...THIS DOES BEAR WATCHING
AS FLOWS WILL LIKELY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE ICE JAMS
ARE IN PLACE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL