Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 250606
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
206 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...AND
THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY SUPPORTER OF THE
MORE SUMMERY AIRMASS...AS ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL KEEP A
MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER. WITH DEW POINTS
RUNNING THE MID 40S...ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND. KBUF COMPOSITE
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME RETURNS ALOFT BUT WITH NO RAIN REPORTED
BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...OR SHOWING UP ON THE LOWER ELEVATION
SCANS. THE WARMER AIR SURGING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALSO HOLD
THE MERCURY UP...AS MINS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM 55 TO 60.

MEMORIAL DAY WILL THEN FEATURE A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER
AS THE AREA WILL FIND ITSELF SQUARELY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
SURFACE/MID-LEVEL LOW FOUND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL LARGELY STYMIE ANY CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS ON RETURN FLOW...CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS FIRING ALONG THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE ONLY OTHER AREA WHERE WE MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S...
WITH READINGS HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY WHERE SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP BUMP READINGS UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE ONLY AREAS THAT MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S WILL BE
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE COOLER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE
A SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED LAKE BREEZE AND CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING...WITH NO
CHANGES.

MONDAY NIGHT A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL FINISH ITS NORTHWARD EXIT
THROUGH THE CWA USHERING IN WARMER...AND MORE HUMID AIR. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
MONDAY EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...FORMING TO THE LEE OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY
SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN
WARM OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY WILL HAVE A TASTE OF SUMMER TO THE DAY AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE.
INITIALLY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED...WITH SUNSHINE AND
CLOUDS AROUND. WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +15C SURFACE HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING SBCAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY...AND THE WEAKENING OF THE CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH WIND ALOFT...0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS TO ALLOW THESE STORMS TO
GROW...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE INLAND STRONG STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/LAKE
ERIE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH NO CHANGE
IN AIRMASS THE AIR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
PRIOR NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS...AND EVEN SOME LIKELY POPS AS MORE FAVORABLE LIFTING WILL BE
FOUND THIS DAY IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COASTLINE EARLY
WEEK...WILL NOW BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TO START THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
INLAND AND ALONG LAKE BREEZES WHERE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AIDED BY
LIFT FROM LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW EASTWARD WE SHOULD
NOT BE AS CAPPED AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR STORMS TO BREW. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES POPS IN
THE GRIDS...THOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND 12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A COLD
FRONT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. DIFFERENCES ARE THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SURFACE WAVES ON
THE FRONT IS SLOWER. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCES POPS FOR BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT NONE THE LESS THIS FRONT
REPRESENTS THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. WARMEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL TURN BRIEFLY
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. SKY
COVER ACROSS OUR REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY ALTO-CU THROUGH
MIDDAY...WITH LOWERING VFR CIGS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME SPRINKLES COULD ACCOMPANY THE CLOUD COVER DURING
THE REMAINING PRE DAWN HOURS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD...STEADIER
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH
THE DAY...THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
IN THE VCNTY OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION...
AND ALSO MACROS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH ONLY
THE LOW CHC FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL KEEP A
RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE RESULT WILL BE
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FOR BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH WAVES
AVERAGING 2 FEET OR LESS.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE GENERALLY SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED... THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR
NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
CHOP...PARTICULARLY ON THE EAST ENDS OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...CHURCH/RSH
MARINE...CHURCH/RSH/WOOD


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