Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 200254
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1054 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY WITH ITS
AXIS NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT FOR THE MOST PART
MOONLIT SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER WERE SOME THIN CIRRUS FROM A STORM SYSTEM OVER
FL/GA HAS CREPT NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA.

OTHERWISE...UNDER MOONLIT SKIES AND A LIGHT WIND REGIME EXPECT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT. PREDAWN LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (TUG HILL)...LOOK FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S.

SUNDAY...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST. EVEN WITH THE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
H850 TEMPS AROUND +6C WILL HELP AID IN SFC TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT MID APRIL DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM
NOVA SCOTIA WILL KEEP FAIR DRY WEATHER OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...WITH MONDAY SLATED TO BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS WITHIN
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND...ANY
CLOUD COVER OF NOTE WILL BE CONFINED TO SITES NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE. OUR PRTLY TO
MSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL THUS COMBINE WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF
8C TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS THAT WILL RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO THE MID 60S EAST OF LK ONTARIO. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...IT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL
WITHIN A COUPLE MILES OF THE LAKE SHORES WHERE LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

OUR STRETCH OF FINE WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A PAIR
OF SHORTWAVES DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN A
CORRESPONDING SFC LOW THAT WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH...FROM
GEORGIAN BAY TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES AND THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE PCPN FREE DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

AS THE FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION TUESDAY MORNING...A 100KT H25 JET
OVER QUEBEC WILL INDUCE A RELATIVELY NARROW SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL
LIFT TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS
BEING MAINTAINED FROM CONTINUITY. THE WRN COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE
THE BULK OF THEIR SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING WITH MOST OF SHOWERS
EAST OF LK ONTARIO BEING FOCUSED ON THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER 6 DEG/KM WILL WORK AGAINST ANY
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 10 DEG F BELOW
THOSE FROM MONDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60.

RESIDUAL TROUGHING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE FOR SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF LK ONTARIO WHERE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD WILL BE PRESENT.
WHILE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY...TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD STAY JUST
MILD ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY NUISANCE PCPN IN LIQUID FORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE INTO
CHANGEABLE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE IT WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL ON WEDNESDAY...RIDGING OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL PUSH
EAST AND BOOST OUR MERCURY BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME
DETAILS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH SUBSEQUENT MID LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND QUITE COOL THOUGH AS
H85 TEMPS OF -5C WILL HOLD OUR AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S F. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS POINT IN THE SEASON
ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE SFC HIGH WILL EASE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR STAR GAZING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND MODERATING H85 TEMPS
LEADING TO PLEASANT WARMING FOR THURSDAY. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DOOR
WILL BE OPEN FOR A PACIFIC BASED COOL FRONT TO CROSS THE LOWER
LAKES. SOME SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT AND ITS SUPPORTING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH THE REGION.

THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY...PROLONGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT...SUNDAY EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHRA ACTIVITY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

THROUGH THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY
MORNING...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH MINIMAL WAVES...ONE FOOT OR LESS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR







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