Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 280253
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1053 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...WITH
A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE FOR THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND...WHEN A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED WITH THE EXIT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS...HOWEVER THIS CLEARING APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. THESE SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS
COOLER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM
LAKES. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OR CONVERGENT
FLOW TO CAUSE ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S WHICH IS ABOUT
DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...850MB TEMPS WILL AVERAGE +7C WHICH IS COOL ENOUGH TO ELICIT A
LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE IN CLOUDINESS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT AS DRIER AIR MIXES
IN...FIRST STARTING INLAND AND ACROSS THE LAKES...AND EVENTUALLY
SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY SUNSET THURSDAY. BREAKS OF SUN
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE COOL AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WARM...BUT MAINLY DRY START TO THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A COOL DRY
NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK INTO
THE MID 70S ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM-UP WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY.
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD STAY LARGELY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AROUND THE EDGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW
SHOWERS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT STEEPEN...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD
BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS ANY TRIGGERS WILL BE LARGELY MESOSCALE IN
NATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL FALL ON SUNDAY WHEN A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TRACKS ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL INTRODUCE
DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TIED TO A MUCH DEEPER SURFACE CYCLONE OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SWING
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...LIKELY BRINGING A MORE EXTENSIVE ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE WITH 60+ DEGREE
DEWPOINTS MAKING IT FEEL QUITE HUMID. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REINTRODUCE COOLER AND DRIER AIR BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE LATE THIS EVENING...BUT 11-3.9U
SATELLITE SHOWS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ALREADY DEVELOPING...WITH THESE
FORMING AT JUST AROUND 3K FT. THESE SHOULD EXPAND AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A PARTIAL CLEARING THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND A BIT EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS CUMULUS DEVELOP. DRIER AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY MIX IN...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL IFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE THIS EVENING...THERE IS A NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH AVERAGES
AROUND 15 KNOTS. THUS FAR WAVES HAVE TOPPED OUT AT 3 FEET...WITH
CONDITIONS JUST SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...BUT THERE STILL IS A
DECENT CHOP ON THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE WAVES WILL PROBABLY PUSH 4 FEET THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. WAVES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS ON LAKE ERIE WITH
THE PERPENDICULAR WIND FLOW. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LESSEN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/WCH





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