Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 060530
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
130 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXIT OFF
THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD POSSIBLY FUELING A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWARD THIS EARLY MORNING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH. THIS WILL BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. MEANWHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
ONGOING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND THE MID 50S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND NORTH COUNTRY.

ON MONDAY...A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL OPEN AND
SPREAD WEAK ASCENT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IN THE
LOW LEVELS A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES. SOME
LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AREA WITH DAYTIME
HEATING... WITH NAM/GFS PROFILES SUGGESTING 500-1000J/KG OF SBCAPE.
THIS WILL PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER...AND DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES...GENESEE
VALLEY...AND NIAGARA FRONTIER. THE LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY ALSO
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL
ESCAPE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND HANG ONTO MORE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BECOME WARM AND SOMEWHAT MORE HUMID ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL
BE COOLER WITH AN EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM...THE GOING FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD LOOKS FINE...
SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE THIS EVENING.

ON TUESDAY A STRONGER SSW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER LAKE
BREEZE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...WHILE
TEMPERATURES PUSH 90 ACROSS THE LOWER GENESEE VALLEY WHERE
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS TO SURGE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TUESDAY RESULTING IN RATHER MUGGY CONDITIONS. THIS
COMBINED WITH CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN NY /BETWEEN A WEAK WAVE MOVING
EAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT/ WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER HEATING
AND DESTABILIZATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND A BIT FASTER... WITH 12Z CONSENSUS TIMING
BRINGING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND THE
FRONT TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WIND FIELDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ARE FAIRLY MODEST. GUIDANCE GENERALLY FORECASTS 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO 30 TO 35 KTS... WITH LIMITED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS
IS A MARGINAL WIND FIELD FOR PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT IT CAN RESULT IN A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS OR PULSE STORMS
WHEN AMPLE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. ALSO... CANNOT RULE OUT AN MCS
DEVELOPING OVER OHIO AND TRACKING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. IF THE MCS MATERIALIZES... IT WOULD PROVIDE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER... FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING ARE STILL LOW FROM
THIS LEAD TIME. SPC HAS OUR ARE IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER... WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING.

IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH THE 12Z NAM/GFS FORECAST PWATS
OVER 2 INCHES...WHICH IS EXTREMELY MOIST FOR THE AREA. IF THIS
VERIFIES...THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING CELLS
IN THIS MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT AS WELL. IN EACH CASE...THE
POTENTIAL IS SMALL AND LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AFTER THIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS A WEAK AREA OF
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL...AS VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF A
SHORTWAVE THAT COULD BRING INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
ONE OF THE DAYS OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY COULD SEE
SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY... THE WEEKEND LOOKS FAR FROM A
WASHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 06Z VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF REGION OVERNIGHT BEFORE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY.

THIS MOISTURE WILL FUEL A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE DO
NOT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE STRONG...BUT ANY STORM COULD DISTRUPT
AN OTHERWISE LIGHT WIND FIELD ACROSS TAF SITES. VFR CIGS SHOULD BE
PREDOMINATE IN ALL PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY THOUGH A
HEAVIER...LOCALIZED STORM MAY DROP VSBYS TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF TIME
PERIOD SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL END THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG AND IFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IN AREAS WHERE
RAIN FELL ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR/GUSTY WINDS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT BUT WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES. MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING RISK FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BOTH AHEAD AND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE EXPECT FLAT WAVE ACTION TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...AR/HITCHCOCK/RSH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...CHURCH/JJR
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...AR/HITCHCOCK



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