402
FXUS61 KBUF 021819
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
219 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will provide our area with fair dry weather and
lower humidity today...then another weak cold front will bring our
next chance of showers and thunderstorms as it pushes across the
area tonight and Thursday. Another...somewhat stronger area of high
pressure will then bring dry and comfortable weather for Thursday
night and Independence Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Latest satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across much of
western NY with afternoon temperatures around 80 degF for most.
A lake breeze convergence boundary continues to lift north into
Niagara Co and across the Niagara Peninsula early this afternoon
that has the potential to trigger a few showers through late
this afternoon.

Looking farther north, an upper level low continues to move
southeast through Ontario with an associated cold front now
approaching the upper Great Lakes region. This system will bring
showers and thunderstorms to western and north-central NY early
Thursday morning. CAMs remain variable keeping timing and
placement uncertainty high, but should remain widely scattered
showers near the Niagara Frontier and more numerous showers east
of Lake Ontario closer to the better forcing with the trough. It
is worth noting that there has been a southwestward trend in the
placement of this trough that will elevate the chance for strong
to severe storms to develop later in the morning across the
Finger Lakes region into the Southern Tier. SPC has expanded the
Marginal Risk westward to include these portions of the CWA.
Latest CAMs do try and initiate this second round of convection
by 15z with over 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE and effective shear 35-40
kt supportive of storms capable of producing strong outflow
winds and heavy downpours. After the early afternoon, the
remainder of Thursday will turn drier as the upper level low
moves over towards New England.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level ridge will begin to slide into the Ohio Valley with
height rises across western NY and high pressure centered over the
northeast US. Friday will pleasant with seasonable temperatures
across western and north-central NY for early July and dew points
dropping into the 50s will lead to more comfortable weather. 850mb
temps will begin to climb headed into Saturday with the warming
trend through the weekend. Saturday will be mainly dry with
afternoon highs in the mid-80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak ripples of shortwave energy will drift east across Canada
through the first half of next week as quasi-zonal flow remains in
place across much of the northern tier of the CONUS. Broad scale
ridging further south will at the same time become increasingly
amplified, particularly across the Four Corners region. Offshore
anticyclonic flow will cause the warmer, more humid southern airmass
to advect into the region early next week while the incoming
shortwave energy reintroduces shower and thunderstorm chances to the
forecast. Temps are expected to peak Sunday with highs near or above
90F likely across the lower terrain areas, with some areas
potentially reaching low-end Advisory criteria, though confidence is
low as Tds remain more uncertain at this range.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mostly clear skies across much of western NY with FEW afternoon
cumulus developing across the Southern Tier. VFR conditions
will persist through the majority of the TAF period. Increasing
cloud cover is expected tonight with scattered showers and
thunderstorms overnight into Thursday morning. Flight conditions
should remain VFR, but localized reductions to visibility will
be possible with any storms overhead through early Thursday
afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday Night...Mainly VFR with localized visibility restrictions
due to valley fog development across the Southern Tier.

Friday through Sunday...VFR.

Sunday night through Monday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms
with MVFR restrictions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure extending from the Ohio Valley to New York
State will maintain a modest southwesterly flow and light chop
across the Lower Great Lakes today...with winds then turning more
westerly tonight and Thursday (with a light chop continuing)
following the passage of a weak cold front. High pressure will then
build across the Lower Lakes Region Thursday night and Friday...with
generally light winds and minimal waves expected for the
Independence Day holiday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...Brothers
SHORT TERM...Brothers
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...Brothers
MARINE...JJR