Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 180003
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
703 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2016

Low pressure over eastern Lake Superior has continued to produce
clouds and scattered showers. A few thunderstorms remain possible
with some weak cape over the arrowhead over the Northland this
afternoon, even if we have not seen any just yet.   This low
pressure system should move far enough east tonight to allow a ridge
to build in, bringing the showers to an end and clearing skies
overnight.  With the clearing skies should come colder min
temperatures for the western portions of the forecast area, and have
put in some low 40s for several locations in northern Minnesota.
Upstream in Canada there were some upper 30s under this ridge, and
would not be surprised if some of our cold spots got that cold as
well.    Meanwhile, a surface low over central Saskatchewan will be
pushing east across Manitoba in the next 24 hours, which should push
a warm front in our direction later on Sunday.  Ahead of it we
should be in deep warm air advection with dry and mostly sunny skies
on Sunday.  Deep mixing should allow for temperatures to get into
the 70s most locations, with some upper 60s possible along the far
north shore, and pushing 80 degrees around the Brainerd lakes.  The
warm front moving in will bring increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms in the late afternoon in the far northwest from around
KINL towards KBJI.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2016

A frontal system will pass through the forecast area Sunday night.
There will be enough moisture across the area and models indicate
some instability ahead of the frontal system so will keep the
thunderstorms in the grids from the last shift.  There will be some
lingering showers across NW WI Monday morning but this will end by
mid-morning.

An area of high pressure will build into the forecast area on Monday
bringing the area dry conditions through wednesday morning.  As the
high moves east of the area, a southerly flow will develop Tuesday
pushing somewhat warmer and moist air into the region.  A warm front
will move through the area on Wednesday bringing showers and
thunderstorms.  This threat for thunderstorms will continue into
Thursday evening as the front drifts back south then north on
Friday. Shortwaves move move along the front through Saturday
keeping the threat for thunderstorms across most of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2016

Wrap around low clouds from a departing low pressure system will
linger over far northeast MN and northwest Wis for a few more
hours. Otherwise, expect clearing skies from the west through the
night with building high pressure. The combination of light winds
and clear skies will allow for areas of fog mainly after midnight.
The fog may be dense at times neat daybreak. High clouds are
currently depicted on satellite imagery advancing east over the
Dakotas. This batch of clouds, with cielings generally above
10kft, will spread across northern MN Sunday morning, reaching
locations in northern Wisconsin during the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  73  56  72 /   0  30  40  10
INL  44  74  52  68 /  10  40  40  10
BRD  48  79  54  72 /   0  10  20  10
HYR  46  75  57  72 /  10  20  30  10
ASX  50  77  58  74 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...Stewart
AVIATION...Graning



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