Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 180527
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1227 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue May 17 2016

High pressure over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will
provide the Northland will another clear and calm night, with
temperatures dipping down to the lower to middle 30s for much of
the forecast area. Frost advisories have been issued for parts of
the southern forecast area where our office has started providing
frost and freeze headline service based on climatological and
agricultural needs, even though many other areas are threatened
with morning frost. Leaned on gfs and nam mos guidance for
overnight lows considering the low dew point temperatures this
afternoon and the mos guidance being much colder than the rest of
the guidance.

The high pressure will shift south and east Wednesday, bringing
southerly light southerly flow to the Northland. Sunny weather in
the morning will give way to scattered cumulus by the afternoon.
The fairly sunny weather and southerly flow will help temperatures
reach the upper 60s and low 70s, but flow from Lake Superior will
keep the North Shore cooler in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue May 17 2016

The strong surface ridge that will dominate our weather for the
next 24- 36 hours begins to slide off to the east Wednesday night,
allowing southerly return flow to develop over the forecast area.
An upper level shortwave will be moving across southern Canada
Wednesday night and Thursday, but is not expected to bring more
than some mid clouds to the area. This will also contribute to a
gradual warming trend through this period.

The upper level pattern by Friday should have a strong upper low
over the western CONUS, with weaker flow over the central CONUS.
The shortwave from Thursday will have been weakening and becoming
a somewhat broad and diffuse swirl at this point, so that even
though it will be over the great lakes do not expect much out of
it. Ridging begins to build just east of the upper low over the
Rockies Friday night, essentially blocking up the upper level
flow. This is expected to continue through the upcoming weekend,
with the pattern only slowly shifting east. This will continue our
dry pattern with gradually warming conditions through the weekend.
Currently have high temperatures in the 70s over the weekend, but
expect some locations may very well rise into the 80s, and we will
watch for that in the next few days. This is also going to produce
a very dry air mass over the area, and we could have some
conditions critical for fire weather over the weekend.

The upper low finally manages to push enough moisture and lift
our direction for increasing clouds and chances for showers and
thunderstorms by Monday, though have been seeing this timing shift
over the last few runs and expect this fluctuation to continue for
another few days. Precipitation chance continue through at least
Tuesday night, with temperatures remaining fairly warm through
Tuesday daytime. Cooler conditions look likely towards the latter
half of next week, with active weather continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

VFR conditions will continue through the upcoming TAF period at
all terminals with high pressure in control. This will result in
winds remaining below 10 kts through the forecast. Expecting fair
weather cumulus to develop around 15z with ceilings around 6-7kft
per the latest NAM/GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  68  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
INL  33  74  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  35  70  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  27  69  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  30  68  42  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ006>009.

MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ038.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...WL



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