Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 250553 AAB
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1253 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Updated Aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

An upper low centered over southeast Montana and northern Wyoming will
move into the Northern Plains tonight. As this occurs, a cold
front will move east into western Minnesota by 12Z Sunday. Deep
southerly flow will draw copious amounts of moisture into the
region with PWAT values rising to 1.5 to 1.75 inches. These values
are near or above whats been measured in the past at both KINL and
KMPX. The upper wave and continued warm air and moisture advection
will cause showers and storms to increase in coverage tonight,
especially late tonight. Localized heavy rain will be a threat
given the high moisture and multiple storms tracking over the same
area with storm motions south/southwest. However, the forcing will
be progressive and be a limiting factor for widespread heavy rain.
Local rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be possible.

Showers/storms will be ongoing Sunday morning over the eastern half
of the Northland with coverage decreasing there through the day.
There could be a narrow area of instability that develops Sunday
afternoon just ahead of the cold front over far eastern Minnesota
and northwest Wisconsin. If enough clearing occurs for this to
happen, there could be some strong thunderstorms that form. Further
west, showers will expand in the afternoon on the backside of the
surface low.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Synoptically the extended begins with a trough digging into the
central Great Lakes and cutting off by late on Monday. This feature
will slowly rotate around the central Great Lakes on Tuesday and
into the eastern Great Lakes by late Wednesday. Good agreement
between the latest GFS/ECMWF/NAM on the progression of this feature.
This will bring rain showers across much of the Northland on Monday
With the stacked system just to the northeast of the CWA, expect
breezy northwest winds sustained around 15 to 20 mph with gusts of
30 to 35 mph. Temperatures will be in the 50s across the region.

Still expect breezy conditions on Tuesday, but winds will be
sustained around 10 to 15 mph as the stacked system moves further to
the east. Precipitation chances will gradually decrease from west to
east as the day progresses Tuesday. Along with the decreasing
precipitation chances, expect cloud cover to gradually decrease as
high pressure builds in from the northwest. Highs on Tuesday range
from the low 50s in the MN Arrowhead to the low 60s in the Brainerd
Lakes Region.

Will continue to see a warming trend as the week progresses and
heading into the weekend as a ridge develops over the Plains. By the
end of the week expect high temperatures to be around 70 degrees.
Expect dry conditions through the middle and late in the week. The
next chance of precipitation comes late on Friday and into Saturday
as a warm front lifts into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

As with previous forecast, MVFR/IFR flight categories expected
overnight into Sunday morning before conditions improve. Strong
southerly low-level winds are developing over the area and will
shift east-northeast through mid-morning Sunday. Have continued
and expanded the LLWS mentions to account for this feature. The
southerly flow aloft is bringing a bit more lift and instability
into the region, which is reflected by the increasing shower
coverage and intensity over the past 3 hours. Think a few
thunderstorms are likely within the widespread showers. Visibility
may decrease into IFR category with the heavier showers/storms.
Subsidence and associated drying will move into the region Sunday
morning leading to clearing skies and improving flight categories.
Winds will remain breezy through the day, but the LLWS threat will
diminish. Another round of showers, and possibly thunderstorms, is
expected to follow the clearing by late afternoon/early evening.
Bring VCSH, at least, back into all terminals in the 25.22Z to
26.03Z timeframe with prevailing -SHRA in some spots. There could
be a few thunderstorms, as well, but confidence in timing and
location is low at this time so opted to leave out the mention of
thunder. Overall confidence in this forecast is average through
25.15Z and then above average for the rest of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  69  48  57 /  80  70  50  40
INL  59  67  48  55 /  80  70  70  40
BRD  59  64  47  59 /  80  40  40  20
HYR  60  70  48  56 /  80  80  50  40
ASX  58  71  51  58 /  70  80  50  50

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...WL
AVIATION...Huyck



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