Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 292348
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
648 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING RID OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. LOOKS LIKE A UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER HAS BEEN
ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE..KEEPING CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHLAND. BY SUNDAY MORNING WE SHOULD BE GRADUALLY CLEARING THE
CLOUDS AS THE UPPER RIDGING TAKES OVER. THERE WILL LIKELY B
MORNING CLOUDS...SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
HELP CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS. VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT...THEN VERY WARM TO HOT TOMORROW.
AND THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN MORE HUMID AIR WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE RIDGE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE REGION.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.  ALSO...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR INTO THE FORECAST REGION.  THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.   A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION VERSUS SCATTERED EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A GOOD DEAL OF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS APPEAR TO BE IN THE SOUTH...FROM
KBRD TO KDLH AND ESPECIALLY KHYR...AS MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  62  84  63  84 /   0   0   0   0
INL  62  90  63  84 /   0   0  10  20
BRD  62  86  65  85 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  59  82  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  59  85  62  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...DAP


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