Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 121140
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
540 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 540 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Updated for the new 12Z Aviation Discussion below.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

High pressure over the Northern Plains early this morning will move
east and south through the day. Plenty of clouds will occur across
the Northland for much of the day despite the approaching high.
Forecast soundings and moisture profiles show plenty of low clouds
under a strong inversion. Some clearing is expected over western
portions of the Northland mid to late afternoon, including the
Brainerd Lakes Region and Walker. We expect a mostly dry day today
with some flurries possible early this morning over northeast Iron
County. Some fog will also occur and be most widespread and dense
over portions of northwest Wisconsin which was seeing mostly clear
skies. Temperatures below freezing and the fog may create slick
spots on untreated roads. Expect highs today from the mid to upper
twenties over far northern Minnesota to the lower to middle thirties
from the Brainerd Lakes Region into northwest Wisconsin.

The ridge will pass east of the area tonight with a zonal flow
aloft. More clouds are again expected with lows in the teens to
lower twenties.

A southerly low level flow will develop on Monday bringing in warmer
air. We expect dry conditions with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Highs will be in the thirties for most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Milder weather is expected this week, in comparison to the
relatively cold weather this past week. Highs will mostly be in the
upper 20s into the 30s. There could be some light drizzle and rain
earlier in the week, and substantial snow is possible for parts
of the Northland late this week.

Southerly warm air advection Monday night and Tuesday will lead to a
substantial warm up. High temperatures are expected to reach the low
40s Tuesday. Isentropic ascent could produce light drizzle over the
Northland. A surface low will track east across southern Canada
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Its passing pre-frontal trough and
associated upper trough will provide moderate forcing for ascent
across the Northland late Tuesday into Tuesday night. This forcing
could help develop light rain across the Northland Tuesday night,
mostly over the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin.

The surface low`s cold front will sweep through the Northland early
Wednesday. This will lead to a blustery day. Even though high
temperatures will be in the upper 20s to middle 30s, it will feel
about 10 to 15 degrees colder because of winds gusting to 20 to 25
mph. There could be light snow showers across northern Minnesota.

Surface high pressure will move through the Northland Wednesday
night and Thursday morning. The GFS, European, and Canadian suggest
there is the potential for significant snow late this week. All
three models have one or two areas of low pressure and potent upper
wave exiting the Rocky Mountains into the north-central US and/or
southern Canada late Thursday through Friday. This low could bring
substantial snow to parts of the Northland, as well as some rain.
There are still significant differences between the models in the
lows` tracks, so it is hard to get into much detail. Stay tuned for
more details.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 540 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

An area of high pressure over the Northern Plains will shift east
today, reach the western Great Lakes later tonight. Widespread
MVFR ceilings across the Northland this morning will linger for
much of the day, but that approaching high pressure will lead to
lifting and clearing this afternoon into this evening. Much of
the region should return to VFR by late this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  19  34  31 /   0   0   0  20
INL  27  13  35  29 /  10   0   0  10
BRD  31  21  37  32 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  33  20  37  31 /   0   0   0  20
ASX  34  23  37  32 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...Grochocinski



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