000
FXUS63 KDLH 121751
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1251 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE KBRD OR KHYR TERMINALS. HAVE
INTRODUCED LLWS AT KHYR LATE TONIGHT AS LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A PERIOD OF 30 KT WINDS AROUND 2 KFT DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER 06Z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS OF ATTENTION ON TEMPERATURES.

THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS SRN MN
THIS MORNING...AND COME CLOSE TO THE SRN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE TRACKING EWD ALONG
AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE. ANY OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS THAT
DO APPROACH THE NORTHLAND WILL QUICKLY ENCOUNTER A STABLE AND DRY
AIR MASS AND FALL APART. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS SITUATION THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY NEED A QUICK UPDATE
AS THIS SRN CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

NORTHERN MN/WI ARE CURRENTLY POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE. ONE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL/ERN CANADA...AND THE SECOND UPPER S/W MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY REGION...PRODUCING THE ON-
GOING CONVECTION. A WEAK SFC HIGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THIS SET UP WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO...OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
ALTHOUGH...TEMPS WILL STILL WARM INTO THE 70S...WITH A FEW LOWER
80S IN NW WI. WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CU
DEVELOP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY. NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
RAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE RETAINS A HOLD ON THE REGION TONIGHT AND ALLOWS
SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS ONCE AGAIN INTO THE MID
70S.

LONG TERM...[THURSDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY]

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN ONTARIO. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SASKATCHEWAN WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PCPN COULD LINGER SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
FINISHES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
THE MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL ONTARIO
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ITS PASSAGE COULD BRING
MORE PCPN TO THE NORTHLAND. HIGH PRESSURE MIGHT THEN HELP KEEP THE
MID WEEK PERIOD DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  72  48  70 /   0   0   0  10
INL  48  76  49  77 /   0   0   0  20
BRD  52  78  51  76 /   0   0   0  40
HYR  51  78  48  76 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  46  70  45  70 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM....GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING