Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 300837
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
337 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINED FOCUSED AROUND THE AREAS
OF FOG THIS MORNING...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE COOL AND ACTIVE NRLY PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA CONTINUES TO ROTATE VERY
SLOWLY EWD. SHOWERS AND STORMS TRIGGERED YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEFTOVER A VERY MOIST NEAR-SFC LAYER THAT
IS COMBINING WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP
TO 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME AND MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FOG THROUGH THE MID MORNING...BEFORE THE HIGH
SUN ANGLE AND DRY AIR ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX THE BL ENOUGH TO SCOUR
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT.

MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE ACTIVE...COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING DRY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. PLENTY OF SUN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE. THE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DESTABILIZING BNDY LYR WILL COMBINE WITH AN
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH TO PRODUCE MID- LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM THE ARROWHEAD SWD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS
AND INTO NW WI. ML CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY
STRONG T-STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AS WELL.

CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY FORCED BY THE DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...SO
EXPECT MUCH OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE....THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
SLIPS SOUTH AND THEN EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRING S/WVS SOUTH INTO NRN
MN/WI...AND SETTING OFF AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. LONG
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND VERY SLOWLY
PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SERIES OF
S/WVS RIDE OVER THE RIDGE.  ON SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF POINT
AT A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAIN AND SETTING UP A WARM
FRONT OVER CENTRAL MN AND NRN WI...THIS COULD MEAN A CLOUDY AND WET
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NEARLY
STATIONARY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.  AT
ANY RATE...THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 6-12
HOURS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR ALL EXCEPT KBRD.
HAVE GONE WITH IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES. WE MAY GET LIFR
CIGS...BUT AS TIMING IS UNCERTAIN HAVE LEFT OFF FOR NOW. EXPECT
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
MORNING BY 14Z. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 19Z...MAINLY
AFFECTING KHIB...KDLH AND KHYR. MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. FOR NOW HAVE PUT IN VCTS
GROUPS...AND WE CAN REFINE WITH LATER ISSUANCES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  55  79  54 /  30  20  20  10
INL  80  52  79  51 /  10  10  20  10
BRD  80  56  82  56 /  10  10  20  10
HYR  77  51  81  53 /  30  30  30  20
ASX  77  52  74  52 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...LE






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