Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 252353
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
653 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO MOVE
STEADILY EASTWARD AS OF MID-AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
BEGINNING TO DECREASE..AS INDICATED BY DECREASING RADAR ECHOES ON
KDLH OVER THE PAST HOUR. LIGHT SNOW AND SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING..BUT
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

BY LATE EVENING..WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AS A SECONDARY SURGE
OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF. THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW LK EFFECT SNOW TO CRANK UP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE AREAS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. 925/850 TEMPS GET QUITE
COLD BY 12Z THURSDAY..AND SHOULD ALLOW SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION IN MANY OF THE FAVORED LK EFFECT AREAS. WE CONFINED
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO IRON COUNTY..WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE BY THE TIME THE SNOW WINDS DOWN BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN MANY AREAS..BUT SHOULD DIMINISH QUITE RAPIDLY LATE
TONIGHT AS PRESSURE RISES WANE AND GRADIENT RELAXES. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY..BUT TEMPS
WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL..ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NW
WISCONSIN UNDERNEATH COLDEST CORE OF TEMPS ALOFT AND LONGEST
PERSISTENCE OF CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

OVERVIEW...THE REST OF THIS WEEK LOOKS DRY...BUT RAIN AND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A PASSING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES COULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING INTO THE NORTHLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR COULD RESULT IN LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER PARTS
OF NW WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
PROVIDE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

WARM SSW FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH
PRESSURE AND AS A LOW IN SW CANADA BEGINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE SUNSHINE AND GUSTY SSW WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S SATURDAY.

THE LOW WILL MOVE ESE THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND REACH LAKE SUPERIOR BY THE MIDDLE OF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE PASSING OF THIS LOW WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN AND SNOW
TO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY
WNW TO NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW.

THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE CONCERNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH WELL INTO THE 50S TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. DRIER CANADIAN AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...ALLOWING
FOR CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SCATTERED BY THE
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AROUND 3-4 KFT WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
FOR THE KHYR AREA AS NORTHERLY WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
KEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  18  28  10  31 /  20  10   0   0
INL  11  25   7  35 /  60  10   0   0
BRD  20  33  12  36 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  21  31  10  34 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  22  28  12  30 /  50  30  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ145-146.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ121-147-148.

&&

$$

AVIATION...GRANING






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