Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 242347
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
647 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The Northland will remain in cool, cloudy north-northeast flow
through at least early this evening. However, much drier flow is
on its way, as evident by the clear skies and large dew point
depressions seen over much of northwest Ontario and northeast
Manitoba closer to the center of an area of high pressure west of
Hudson Bay. This drier flow should help to scatter or begin to
clear out cloud cover tonight into Saturday. However, easterly
flow will develop overnight into Saturday, with strong and gusty
flow off of Lake Superior. This will help maintain low-level cloud
cover closer to the shores of Lake Superior Saturday, so sunshine
may be a bit delayed until later in the afternoon in places like
the North Shore, Duluth, and Ashland. Inland areas of the
Northland should have plenty of sun by the late morning.

Tonight`s lingering cloud cover will help prop up temperatures,
with lows forecast in the middle 20s to upper 20s. Some parts of
the Arrowhead could see teens. The temperatures could be
substantially cooler for inland areas, especially northern
Minnesota, if the skies clear more than anticipated given the
light wind flow away from the Lake. Much of the western Lake
Superior shoreline will only climb to the 30s Saturday because of
the clouds and cool flow from the Lake, but areas well inland,
with the better sunshine, should reach the lower to middle 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The extended period will be relatively quiet with only weak
shortwaves moving through the region with limited moisture. A
shortwave will move affect the region Saturday night and Sunday
with northwest wisconsin and areas most of NE MN a chance for
precipitation. Moisture is limited so chances wil be lower across
most area except in NW WI. Also, with warmer air aloft, there is a
possibility of light freezing rain mixed with the rain and snow
Saturday night and Sunday morning before changing over to all rain
by mid-morning. The shortwave slows pulls out the east Sunday
night and monday morning keeping the chance for of snow, freezing
rain, and snow across mainly NW WI and the north shore.

An ridge builds into the forecast region on Monday and will
dominate the area through Tuesday night keeping the area dry. As
indicated by the previous shift, there are model differences with
the mid week system. The ECMWF and GFS wants to bring
precipitation Wednesday night and Thursday but the Canadian wants
to keep the area dry through friday. Will keep the blended
solution for now with a chance of rain and snow mix wednesday
night with chance of rain on Thursday. There will be continued
chance for a wintry mix Thursday night and chance for light rain
on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Surface high pressure will continue to build over the Northland
tonight. As it moves in, low level winds will veer to easterly and
that will prevent widespread clearing. We expect MVFR and some IFR
ceilings to be most widespread but there will be some VFR ceilings
for a time this evening, mostly likely toward KINL. Fog will also
be possible in spots, mostly likely around Lake Superior.

Ceilings will gradually lift and become scattered for most areas
during the day Saturday. However, we do expect lower ceilings and
fog to redevelop Saturday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  27  38  28  38 /  10  10  30  40
INL  24  44  24  45 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  28  48  30  44 /   0   0  20  30
HYR  27  46  31  43 /   0  10  40  40
ASX  28  40  29  39 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Sunday
     for LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Stewart
AVIATION...Melde



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