Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 300426
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1126 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A SLOW MOVING AREA OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE NAM...SEEMED TO HAVE A FAIRLY DECENT HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND WILL FOLLOW FAIRLY CLOSELY AS THE
NIGHT WEARS ON. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL LIFT UP INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.
RAINFALL FROM THE 88D WAS SHOWING SOME 2 TO 2.5 INCH AMOUNTS. HAVE
NOT HAD TOO MUCH SURFACE REFLECTION YET BUT THINK THERE WILL
LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. WILL
REALLY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS THOUGH...AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A WARNING MAY NEED
TO BE EVENTUALLY ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AT 315PM...THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND POTENT SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WAS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NW MANITOBA. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE WAS SOME CLEARING MOVING INTO THE FAR
SE FORECAST AREA DUE TO CLEARER SKIES FARTHER SOUTH IN THE WARM
SECTOR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND...MAINLY THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL LIFT TOWARDS WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE WARM
FRONT IN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH. THE WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO NW WISCONSIN. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.8 INCHES...SO HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS TRAIN.
THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK OF GUSTY WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
FAR SE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT AND CLEARING COULD CAUSE ENOUGH HEATING TO CAUSE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN SOME STRONG STORMS.

TONIGHT...THE PCPN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. A SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SW
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WIND AND HIGH
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY...BUT THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA...AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR A TRAILING TROUGH.
THE MORNING LOOKS CLOUDY...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR IN FEATURING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE NRN CONUS THIS PERIOD. AFTER SOME INITIAL
COLLAPSE OF MID LVL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD A TREND TOWARDS A
LARGE BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. WHILE TOO EARLY TO TELL THIS MAY PLACE PARTS OF THE
REGION WITHIN A FAVORABLE CORRIDOR OF HIGH PWS AND POTENTIAL
MCS/MCC DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A FEW DAYS OF GENERALLY
BENIGN WX SHOULD DEVELOP FROM LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE AREA
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A PASSING SFC HIGH THAT MOVES FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH SOME POPS ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE FCST TUESDAY THE MOISTURE/LIFT IS LIMITED AND LATER SHIFTS MAY
BE ABLE TO REDUCE/ELIMINATE WHAT IS CURRENTLY FCST. THE NEXT
CREDIBLE CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED LIFT AND MSTR TRANSPORT WILL BE LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BDRY ARRIVES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. BY THAT
TIME THE AREA OF FORCING SHOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT PWATS TO ACT
UPON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IN
FACT...CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE AND LARGELY SETTLE INTO THE
IFR/LIFR CATEGORY FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS
OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO GENERALLY MVFR OR VFR ON SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  67  54  74 /  40  20  10  40
INL  52  71  52  73 /  30  10  10  70
BRD  59  72  58  78 /  20  20  10  70
HYR  60  72  55  79 /  90  30  10  20
ASX  58  68  53  78 /  90  30  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...DAP





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