Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 231754
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1254 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

UPDATED THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY FOCUSING ON THE
TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. LEANED ON THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND
RAP13 FOR THE BLEND BECAUSE THE TWO MODELS WERE PERFORMING THE
BEST WITH WHAT WAS OCCURRING EARLIER THIS MORNING. BOTH THE HRRR
AND RAP13 WERE REFLECTING THE BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA...THEN LIFTING THE BAND NORTH AND EAST INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE PCPN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LIMITED
TO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND THEN ONLY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
REST OF THE NORTHLAND LATE TODAY.

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE
ARROWHEAD TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
RAP13/NAM12/GFS20 MODEL SOUNDINGS HEAVILY FAVOR ONLY RAIN OR
SNOW...SO REMOVED THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ALSO HAD A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE LAKE SUPERIOR
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT HEAVILY SUPPORT
RAIN. WHILE COLD NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH THE
FREEZING MARK...THE RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD
ENSURE THE FALLING PCPN REMAINS RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TYPE
THROUGH SUNDAY.

A SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN MONTANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z SUNDAY THEN MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EAST ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHLAND TODAY INTO SUNDAY WITH PWAT
VALUES INCREASING FROM A THIRD TO HALF INCH OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...TO THREE QUARTERS TO NEAR AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY 12Z
SUNDAY. PERSISTENT WAA/FGEN AS WELL AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TODAY INTO
SUNDAY WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
STRONG GRADIENT WITH PRESSURE FALLS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
CAUSE THE WIND TO INCREASE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH STRONG
WINDS OVER AND CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND...MAINLY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN THE ARROWHEAD TO THE HEAD
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. JUST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS...BUT TONIGHT THE LOW LEVELS WILL COOL AROUND PORTIONS
OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH INCREASING EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS...ADDITIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND THE LAKE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUGGEST A MIX FROM RAIN OR SNOW
TO SLEET OR EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE ARROWHEAD. AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN IN THE TWIN PORTS AND SOUTH SHORE AREAS. A
MIX MAY DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AT THE HEAD OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AS STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AND PERSISTENT RAIN COOLS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THOSE AREAS. AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT ICE IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAPPEN TO COOL ABOUT 2 OR 3
DEGREES MORE THAN EXPECTED...THERE COULD BE SOME ICING THAT DEVELOPS.

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...TO
1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

WE EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID SIXTIES IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...TO THE LOWER FIFTIES OVER
FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. INCREASING WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
KEEP ALL AREAS AROUND THE LAKE MUCH COOLER...WITH ONLY LOWER TO MID
FORTIES EXPECTED. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN COOLER WITH STRONGER WINDS.
THE LAKE INFLUENCE WILL BE FELT WELL INLAND TO MOOSE LAKE...SOLON
SPRINGS AND IRON RIVER...AND WELL INTO THE ARROWHEAD. TEMPERATURES
HERE WILL ONLY BE IN THE THIRTIES...WITH MID FORTIES TO LOWER
FIFTIES ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE STRONG
SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...EAST TO
NORTHWEST IOWA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND ON TO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
BY MONDAY EVENING.  STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.  FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST POPS SHOULD BE
SUNDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH MONDAY.  EASTERLY FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND COLDER...DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST MAY TURN THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO A WINTRY MIX
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OR FARTHER INLAND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRITICAL DURING THIS TIME RANGE...AND
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN.  HAVE LEFT THE FREEZING
RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THESE PERIODS FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE
TO RE-EVALUATE THIS OVER THE NEXT DAYS.  MONDAY NIGHT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST...LEAVING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY THAN
MONDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS.  A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE LOW TIGHTER
AND FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THE MORE OPEN AND FASTER MOVING ECMWF.
THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS PRECIPITATION GOING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WHERE THE ECMWF KEEPS US DRY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE UPPER LOW TOO FAR NORTH TO
AFFECT US.  THIS FARTHER NORTH GFS SOLUTION IS RELATIVELY NEW...AS
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS ALSO KEPT THIS UPPER LOW TOO FAR SOUTH TO AFFECT
THE FORECAST AREA.  HAVE KEPT TO THE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR POPS...BUT
WE MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER THEM AGAIN.  TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWERING CEILINGS THIS
EVENING...AND SHOWERS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z.
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE FOR KBRD...KDLH AND KHYR OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN COVERAGE
AND TIMING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST SUNDAY WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  35  37  32 /  10  80  80  90
INL  52  36  50  30 /  60  70  10  10
BRD  65  44  45  37 /  20  70  70  90
HYR  62  46  50  38 /   0  70  90  90
ASX  55  39  41  35 /  10  80  90  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
     SUNDAY FOR LSZ143>146.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GRANING



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