Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 070826
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
326 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

997MB SFC LOW OVER CTRL ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL TROF IS
MOVING ESE EARLY THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID LVL
FLOW AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SFC LOW WNW INTO ERN
SASK. WITHIN THIS EXTENDED TROUGH IS LOCATED ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY BROAD CYCLONIC/STRAIGHT FLOW
FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS. PATCHY
MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS ARE STREAKING INTO THE CWA. PWATS HAVE LOWERED
BELOW 1 INCH AS DRIER AIR TEMPORARILY COVERS THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM  CDT MON JUL 7 2014

TODAY...MID LVL FLOW WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST AS A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES SOUTH INTO ERN NODAK. SFC BDRY
WILL SLIDE SOUTH TOWARDS ERN BDRY WATERS BY LATE AFTN. GRADUALLY
LOWERING HEIGHTS AND DEEP LAYER MOISTENING WILL PROMOTE A MORE
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. FCST 85H MSTR TRANSPORT IS GREATEST SOUTH OF
CWA WHILE MID LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS SHIFTS ALONG SRN TIER OF
CWA. HAVE TAPERED POPS SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER POPS SOUTH OF
CWA. MOST FAVORED COMBINATION OF DEEP SHEAR/SUFFICIENT CAPE APPEARS TO BE
ALIGNED ALONG SRN WEDGE OF CWA SO MAY SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS IN
THIS CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROF DEEPENS OVER ERN CWA AS A SFC TROUGH/WINDSHIFT
STRETCHES FROM THE ARROWHEAD INTO THE SERN CWA BY 12Z TUES. GIVEN
THE FAIRLY DEEP AND MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL KEEP POPS HIGHER
OVER ERN CWA. SUSPECT THAT INSTABILITY WILL LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY BY
LATE EVENING SO WE WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO DROP MENTION OF THUNDER
IN UPDATES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

THERE WILL STILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY AS YET ANOTHER STRONG VORT MAX ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.  MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MOST OF THE LIFT WITH THIS ACROSS THE
MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI...THEREFORE SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE WEST AND
HIGHER IN THE EAST. THE RAIN COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING IN
THE ARROWHEAD SOUTH THROUGH NRN WI UNTIL THE S/WV MOVES EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY AS THE CLOUD COVER AND
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. 8H TEMPS FORECAST TO FALL FROM TODAYS
11-14 DEGREE`S C TO 7 TO 9 C BEHIND THE FRONT. TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AND DRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE UPPER TROF TO THE EAST.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS ANOTHER S/WV
MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRINGS BACK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BEGINNING FRIDAY AS A RETURN FLOW SETS UP
BEHIND THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE RESULTANT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
INCREASE HUMIDITY AND CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH FORECAST IS DRY FOR SUNDAY...A LOOK AT THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS
CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN MN WHILE GFS KEEPS UPPER LOW OVR
WELL NORTH OVR LAKE WINNIPEG. GOING WITH THE GFS SOLUTION AS THE
TREND HAS BEEN TO THE NORTH...BUT WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS WEEK.







&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED
SHRA OR POSSIBLE -TSRA IN THE KBRD AREA AFTER 10Z. THE SHRA/TSTMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING SCATTERED
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  52  69  53 /  40  60  40  10
INL  77  53  69  49 /  50  50  40  10
BRD  79  57  74  54 /  50  50  20  10
HYR  79  55  71  53 /  50  80  30  10
ASX  79  51  68  52 /  40  70  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC





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