Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 291152
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
652 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Upper low nearly overhead is in the process of opening up and
lifting to the northeast into Canada while slowly weakening early
this morning, but there is still sufficient forced ascent to
produce scattered to widespread showers this morning. The forcing
is most pronounced across northern Minnesota in close proximity to
the weakening deformation zone, and this is likely to persist
until around mid morning, at which point westerly winds should
overspread most of the Duluth CWA as the surface low pulls away.
However, increasing sun as the day progresses should lead to the
development of some pretty decent instability this afternoon
underneath still relatively cool temps aloft. Most of the short
range hi-res guidance and CAMs produce scattered T-Storms this
afternoon and linger them into the 03z time frame this evening. We
agree with this general assessment and have increased PoPs for
this afternoon in most areas, and have also extended the mention
of at least some precip well into the evening as this type of
activity in W/NW flow is often hard to kill off before sunset,
which is not until almost 9 PM local time. Some small hail and
gusty winds are certainly possible with the strongest cells this
afternoon/early evening.

Later tonight, clearing skies and light winds as low level ridging
builds in to the region should lead to the re-development of fog
in many areas, and it could be more widespread than is currently
indicated in the forecast.

Memorial Day appears to be the best day of the Holiday weekend
underneath weak surface ridging, with light west/northwest winds
and warming temps. A weak impulse sliding east-southeastward along
the Canadian border could touch off a few instability showers
Monday afternoon over NCent MN and the Arrowhead.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Our next storm system is an upper low that will have been moving
across the northern Rockies, and Monday evening will be over eastern
Montana.  This low will move east across the Dakotas Tuesday and
Tuesday night, before moving across Minnesota on Wednesday.  This
system will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms
beginning late Monday night, with fairly high pops Tuesday and
Tuesday night before tapering off again on Thursday. The extra
clouds and precipitation should bring temperatures back down into
the 60s and 70s for both Tuesday through Thursday.

Ridging will build across the area Friday, bringing quieter weather
for the daytime.  Colder air brought down behind the exiting system
will keep temperatures on the cool side, with highs in the upper 60s
to low 70s.

Next weekend chances for showers and thunderstorms return as a
shortwave moves southeast across the area...with temperatures
gradually warming.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

IFR/LIFR conditions at all sites as of 12z should slowly improve
to MVFR generally between 15z and 21z today...with further
improvement to VFR by 00z. Scattered rain showers expected to
develop across the terminals generally during the 18z - 00z time
range...and have included VCSH in FM groups around those times to
account for them. No TEMPO groups for now as timing and location
uncertain. VFR conditions should continue tonight, though some
terminals may have fog development after 05z. Have included it in
KDLH for now, but we may need it in additional locations as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  52  77  47 /  50  20   0  30
INL  68  50  76  48 /  50  20   0  10
BRD  75  52  81  55 /  40  10  10  60
HYR  73  52  80  50 /  50  30   0  50
ASX  70  53  77  47 /  50  30   0  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...LE


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