Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 280018
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
718 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A SFC TROF WAS DROPPING THROUGH THE FA AT 19Z. SHOWERS CONTINUED TO
DOT THE LANDSCAPE AS VORT MAXES ROTATE THROUGH THE FA. LAST OF THE
VORT MAXES HAS REACHED THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND WILL PASS
THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER GENERATED
FROM THIS ENERGY AND CAA WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN
CLEARING IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE N AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES WILL ALSO AID IN THE CLEARING.

THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THE SKY WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. KEPT OUT THE
MENTION OF FOG AS MODELS INSIST ON KEEPING A LAYER OF MOISTURE
AROUND 5K FT...ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION FOG...NOR GENERATE CLOUD COVER.

ON MONDAY...THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS LEAVES A
NLY FLOW OVER THE FA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
MN ARROWHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS. THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE AND HAVE AN ISOLD THUNDER MENTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. REST
OF THE FA SHOULD BE DRY DUE TO A MID LEVEL INVERSION OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A STAGNANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A
COOL UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NE U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES AND WRN HIGH PLAINS. A SERIES OF WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK N-S FROM MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEK AND PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND WEAK
ISOLATED STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING RAINFALL APPEARS TO
BE ON TUE NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK. THE LATEST 12Z GFS IS THE LEAST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM GENERATE LIGHT/MDT
RAINFALL ALMOST EVERY DAY AROUND 00Z. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S THROUGH THE WEEK AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...AND THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WE DO NOT EXPECT
THE FOG TO BE VERY WIDESPREAD. ON MONDAY...IT LOOKS AS IF SOME
SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE PICTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
A DISTURBANCE DROPS STRAIGHT SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. THE LEAST
NUMBER OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE KBRD AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  76  55  77 /  10  10  10  30
INL  51  76  51  77 /  10  10  10  20
BRD  54  76  54  78 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  49  75  52  77 /  10  10  10  40
ASX  50  76  53  77 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...DAP






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