Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 222345
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
645 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A QUICK UPDATE FOR LATEST TRENDS.  UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES ARE THE MAIN STORY FOR TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. INITIAL CIRRUS SHIELD FROM SURFACE LOW OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WAS ADVANCING NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS MY SOUTH. NEXT CHALLENGE IS TIMING INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NAM BUFR SOUNDING FROM BRD
SUGGEST 200-500 J/KG OF SBCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. CARRIED PREVIOUS SHIFTS LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY SOUTH WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

TEMPS WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH MY PERIOD WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 40S TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S.
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE AS THAT HAS BEEN
PERFORMING WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING COVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
ONLY THE NAM IS TRYING TO BRING IN RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. GFS/GEM/ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF. WILL FOLLOW THE
CONSENSUS AND HAVE REMOVED THE POPS SATURDAY EVENING AND LOWERED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT SO POPS ARE ALIGNED OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE AREA. MINIMAL INSTABILITY SO NO THUNDER MENTION. WHILE THE
RIDGING IS HANGING TOUGH ON SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS TRYING TO
UNDERCUT THE RIDGE. GFS IS TOO FAR N AND TOO FAST WITH
QPF...FOLLOWED BY THE NAM. PREFER A BLEND OF THE GEM/ECMWF FOR POPS.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT A MENTION OF THUNDER AND HAVE
REMOVED. RIDGING IS FINALLY OVERCOME SUNDAY NIGHT BY A CLOSED UPPER
LOW DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY
WILL ROTATE FROM THIS LOW OVER THE REGION WARRANTING HIGHER POPS.
BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ISOLD THUNDER MENTIONED. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OPENS INTO A LONG WAVE TROF ON MONDAY. MORE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF
THE TROF ON MONDAY RESULTING IN HIGHER POPS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST. THIS UPPER TROF
BECOMES VIRTUALLY STATIONARY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP IMPULSES MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME AND POPS ARE IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS SPREADING UP INTO THE KBRD AREA AFTER 21Z
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND COVERAGE TO BE LOW...SO HAVE
LEFT OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  72  48  68 /   0  10  10  10
INL  47  77  45  78 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  46  70  50  68 /   0  20  10  30
HYR  43  71  48  70 /   0  10  20  30
ASX  43  74  46  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...LE









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