Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 170942
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
342 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Sunny, dry, and relatively warm day on tap with highs in the mid
to upper 20s across the Northland.

A short wave passes tonight into Thursday increasing
precipitation chances across the northern portions of the CWA.
Due to low probabilities of ice in the clouds, precip may fall as
freezing rain/drizzle though QPF amounts are quite light - only a
couple hundredths of an inch. This wave quickly passes for a
return to a dry period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

The Northland can expect relatively mild weather for the latter
half of the week. Warm air will push through the Northland
Thursday night and early Friday, with 850 hpa temperatures of
about 6 to 10 degrees, before a cold front pushes through the
Northland Friday. This cold front will be associated with a
passing Canadian Clipper well to the north in Manitoba and
Ontario. Despite the cold front passage, it won`t be difficult for
temperatures to reach highs in the middle to upper 30s Friday
because of the relatively warm start to temperatures in the
morning. The GFS, Canadian, and European suggest there could be
light precipitation (rain and/or a wintry mix) across northern
Minnesota during the day. Saturday will still be relatively mild
with highs ranging from the low to middle 30s.

The main focus for this forecast is potential snow early next week.
The GFS, European, and Canadian have been indicating the potential
for a Colorado Low to bring snow to parts of the Upper Midwest early
next over the past few days of model runs. The latest 00Z runs
continued to indicate this potential. This storm could bring heavy
snow to the Northland, but the greatest potential for heavy snow
appears to be just to the south and southeast of the forecast area
for now based on the latest modeled tracks of the Low. Temperatures
are expected to dip back below normal early next week in the wake of
this storm.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

VFR through much of the forecast. MVFR ceilings will move into INL
Wednesday evening, as a warm front moves in from the eastern
Dakotas.

Overnight tonight, the main concern will be low level wind shear
at INL/DLH/HIB as winds remain gusty aloft and decoupled at the
surface. Gusty winds will develop mid Wednesday morning as the
mixed layer grows. By Wednesday evening the mixed layer will
decouple and winds will become light.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  25  18  31  22 /   0  10  10   0
INL  26  17  30  20 /   0  40  10  10
BRD  27  18  34  22 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  23  15  33  20 /   0  10  10   0
ASX  27  18  33  22 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolfe
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...WL



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