Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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573
FXUS63 KDLH 081231 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
631 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE IMPROVING TO THE WEST. HAVE ALLOWED THE
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FOR MY WESTERN ZONES...CONTINUED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE. STILL EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OUT
WEST...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST. TWEAKED SNOW TOTALS IN
ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTY UPWARD A BIT. THINK THE AREAS ON THE NORTH
SLOPE OF THE GOGEBIC RANGE WILL SEE HIGH-END ADVISORY SNOWFALL OF
5 TO 7 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL GIVE THE DAY SHIFT AN
OPPORTUNITY TO REASSESS THE FORECAST AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM
RATHER THAN UPGRADE TO A WARNING.

UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING INVOLVE CONTINUED LIGHT
SNOW AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SURFACE LOW OF DEPARTING CLIPPER WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER EAST-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WAS FOUND FROM EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WERE STILL BREEZY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...AND IN
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. RADAR RETURNS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
THE PRESENCE OF A TERRAIN FORCED GRAVITY WAVE ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MAIN ROTOR SEEMS TO BE
ENHANCING SNOW RATES FROM GRAND MARAIS TO DULUTH TO MOOSE
LAKE...AND ACROSS NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY...WITH THE SECONDARY
CREST ENHANCING SNOW IN SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY INTO BAYFIELD
COUNTY. AT 3 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST...TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TODAY...WITH THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEAST TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS UPPER
SUPPORT DIMINISHES...EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO FILL AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS
ACROSS MY WEST THIS MORNING AS PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF TO
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TODAY. GRAVITY WAVE FEATURE IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WIND DIRECTION ALOFT AND SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE FOR THE FEATURE TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH THE
ROTOR SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAKE...AND EXTENDING INTO
DOUGLAS...SOUTHEAST CARLTON...AND NORTHERN PINE COUNTY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE DECREASES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...
ANTICIPATE MOISTURE AND HEAT FLUX FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO ENHANCE
SNOW RATES IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGING AND BROAD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WORK TO ERODE THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME. CYCLONIC FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
THE LAKE WILL SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER PORTIONS
OF DOUGLAS...BAYFIELD...ASHLAND...AND IRON COUNTIES. WITH CLEARING
SKIES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE CONSMOS
SOLUTION ONCE AGAIN AS IT WAS SUPPORTING COLDER MIN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT THAN REMAINDER OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO INHERITED TEMP FORECASTS.

PRESENTLY ANTICIPATE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MY MINNESOTA
ZONES WILL EXPIRE AT 12Z AS SCHEDULED. MNDOT STILL REPORTING
TRAVEL NOT ADVISED ON SOME HIGHWAYS IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND WILL
REEVALUATE BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME. WI HEADLINES SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE. BRIEFLY CONSIDERED EXTENDING ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW.
SINCE THERE IS STILL MORE THAN 24 HOURS ON THAT CLOCK...WILL LET
DAY SHIFT MAKE DECISION TO EXTEND OR CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION TODAY OF 1 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 7 INCHES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE NORTHLAND WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND SFC RIDGING WITH LIGHT WINDS BUILDING OVER
WESTERN MINNESOTA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KIWD SHOW LAPSE RATES...WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER 3KFT...AND TRAJECTORIES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE SNOW BELT OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE END OF THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
AND ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR...WHICH IS ON TRACK TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

AN AREA OF RAIN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A THERMAL
GRADIENT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A REGION OF STRONG MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NW MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY.
HAVE REMOVED THE SMALL POPS THAT WERE IN PREVIOUS FCST IN NORTH-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS WEST OF A KINL TO KBRD LINE.

LONG RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT A BROAD AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND A TRANSITION TO A RETURN FLOW.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE A
CLIPPER THAT BRING SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO
CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE DAY. LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED AT
KHYR TODAY. LOW CEILINGS WILL COVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...
CLEARING FROM THE WEST GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE TERRAIN...THE KDLH AREA
MAY SEE CLEARING EARLIER IN THE EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  15  -5   5 -12 / 100  50  10  10
INL  10 -12   0 -18 / 100  10   0  10
BRD  13  -4   7 -11 / 100  10   0  10
HYR  16   0   7  -9 / 100  70  10  20
ASX  17   4   9  -3 / 100 100  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001-
     002.

MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HUYCK
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING



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