Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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342
FXUS63 KDLH 261805
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
105 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1048 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

We updated earlier this morning to account for the increase in
thunderstorm coverage over northwest Wisconsin. We continue to see
storms develop and we expect that to continue into the afternoon.
A weak frontal boundary will extend from northwest Minnesota into
northern Wisconsin through the day. A weak shortwave was aiding in
producing the storms this morning and the models do show weak
shortwave ridging developing this afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis
shows CAPE increasing and we expect that continue as clouds
gradually diminish. Several of the high res CAMS show this
mornings storms diminishing with lower coverage this afternoon
and in some models no additional development. We kept a chance
for more storms through the afternoon over northwest Wisconsin and
over much of northern Minnesota due to the boundary and increasing
instability. Some of the storms could be strong and an isolated
severe storm can not be ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

At 4 am, there was a variety of weather conditions across the
Northland. Areas of fog were found across the region, and there
was some locally dense fog in spots. Temperatures ranged from the
middle 40s to the middle 50s for the most part. On KDLH radar,
there was an area of thunderstorms approaching International
Falls, while another larger area of storms south of the CWA
generally moving to the east.

The models are generally in decent agreement concerning the mass
fields, but some differences were found in the handling of the
various subtle features in terms of sensible weather. The main
focus for today through Friday will be trying to resolve various
precipitation threats. In general, the chances for precipitation
appear to be fairly low for most areas. The best chance for
showers and storms today appears to be in portions of NW WI, as
well as along the International Border region. Dry air is expected
to push in from southwest to northeast during the day, allowing a
good deal of sunshine to develop across the region. High
temperatures should soar into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Could be
a few strong storms, especially in NW WI. Areas of fog will likely
linger near Lake Superior, as well as cooler temperatures.

Tonight, it will be fairly quiet across the Northland during the
evening, but showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase
from the south as a shortwave lifts northeastward in the broad
southwest flow aloft. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be
fairly numerous for the last half of the night, and into Friday as
well. The last day of the work week should be on the wet side due
to moist southerly flow and shortwave energy. Highs will once
again be in the 70s for the most part.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

The wet pattern will continue through most of the long term as
moisture continues to stream into the forecast area.

The entire long range period will be dominated by a long wave
trough. First in the short term, the current wave over the
central U. S. will merge with another one that will be developing
over the Pacific Northwest early next week. As this next system
digs into the central Rockies, another series of short waves will
move across the northland.

While a good portion of the weekend will be stormy the precipitation
chances will be smallest on monday. On Saturday the surface low
will be over the upper Midwest and finally pulling out Sunday,
making for a stormy weekend. By Monday weak high pressure will be
over the region, but will quickly be replaced by low pressure
developing in the high plains. With increased moisture and warm
air advection in the return flow, some showers and storms could
develop mainly in the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

generally vfr conditions through the afternoon and evening
hours...with khib and KDLH on track to clear out in the 20Z-22Z
time frame. The low clouds and fog will redevelop overnight with a
period of lifr possible during the early morning.

The unstable air mass will continue to support a few showers and
thunderstorms through the evening...but have left out of TAFs at
this time due to isolated nature and uncertainty in location.

A transition back to southerly flow will lift area of rain with
embedded thunderstorms in to the region through friday
morning....becoming widespread during the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  52  65  52 /  30  40  60  60
INL  72  48  75  55 /  50  20  50  40
BRD  79  56  74  57 /  10  50  60  60
HYR  79  55  76  58 /  60  50  60  60
ASX  66  49  68  53 /  80  40  60  60

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melde
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...Graning



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