Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 241204
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
704 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

PLENTY OF RAIN WILL BE ON TAP THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS OF 08Z AND WILL
MOVE LITTLE TODAY...THEN IT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND AS A RESULT HAS COLDER 925-850MB TEMPERATURES
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. WE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/NAM/GEM.

STRONG FGEN/ISENTROPIC LIFT EARLY THIS MORNING WAS LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. WE EXPECT PLENTY OF
SHOWERS TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME REDUCTION IN COVERAGE IN
SPOTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AREA BY 12Z MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
AGREES ON HAVING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM AROUND THE HEAD OF LAKE
SUPERIOR EAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO MONDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
HYDRO ISSUES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLOODING.

STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO
MONDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE THIRTIES TO AROUND FORTY FROM THE
NORTH SHORE DOWN INTO THE TWIN PORTS/MOOSE LAKE AREA AND OVER INTO
NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY. WE ONLY HAVE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET IN
PORTIONS OF THE ARROWHEAD THIS MORNING...AND TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE
SOME FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS TONIGHT IN THE ARROWHEAD AS WELL. JUST
ABOUT ALL THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
TWIN PORTS AND SOUTH SHORE WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WE DO HAVE SOME AREAS COOLING TO 33F AT TIMES.
ALL THE BUOYS/SHIP REPORTS HAVE SHOWN A LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE
OF 36F...WHICH SHOULD ALSO HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF A MIXTURE FROM HAPPENING.

WITH THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE LOW TRACK...WE DID INCREASE POPS ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE WE DID HAVE
DRY CONDITIONS EARLIER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

OUR CURRENT UPPER LOW FINALLY EXITS OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT...FINALLY DRAWING THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM THE AREA.  TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRIER AND WARMER
FOR THE FORECAST AREA...AS WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION NOT
OVER THE AREA THE SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S
MOST AREAS.  HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP THE EASTERLY FLOW AND AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE MUCH COOLER.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT STORM...BRINGING A SURFACE LOW EAST
ACROSS NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY...AND ON TO CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY
MORNING.  ONCE AGAIN...THIS WILL SET UP A LARGE BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.  THIS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT STORM...AND
EXPECT THAT THE TRACK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH AS
WELL...WELL SUPPORTED BY THE MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.  HAVE PUT IN SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE AS THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
SNOW.  ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE PRETTY MINOR.

DRY CONDITIONS TO SET IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
NEXT WEEKEND I HAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST AS THE MAIN
UPPER LOW FINALLY APPEARS TO MOVES FARTHER EAST AND SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
EVEN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WE MAY VERY WELL END UP DRY.  EITHER
WAY THIS PATTERN SHOULD PUSH SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES OUR WAY ONCE
AGAIN WITH SOME HIGHS AROUND 60 POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

RAIN TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDLH FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KDLH...KHIB...KBRD
AND KHYR TO CONTINUE TO LOWER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR FOR ALL FOUR LOCATIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. KINL TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND A FEW SHOWERS.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDER THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR KBRD
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING HAVE
LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  34  34  31 /  90  90  80  30
INL  50  35  51  28 /  30  20  20   0
BRD  47  39  40  33 /  80  90  70  30
HYR  50  42  43  33 /  90  90  80  50
ASX  41  37  37  32 /  90  90  80  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     142>148.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
     LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE



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