Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 311156 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING
HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT WIND SPEEDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND COLD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER ONTARIO AND THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY AND INTO
MONDAY. BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND A SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT INCREASING EAST TO NE FLOW OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP AREAS NEAR THE LAKE COOLER IN THE
50S.

TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD AND RELATIVELY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT LIKELY BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING
SINCE THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE BIT MORE WIND. FROST IS
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MOST LIKELY IN THE
ARROWHEAD.

THERE WILL BE INCREASING SSE WINDS MONDAY. SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE
60S INLAND...BUT EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE WILL KEEP AREAS NEAR
THE LAKE COOLER IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL GIVE A
COOL AND DRY PERIOD. HOWEVER..A TROF OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE U. S.
WILL BRING SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE RIDGE...EVENTUALLY
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
INCREASING TEMPERATURES...HUMIDITY AND CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH
RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENING IN ITS WAKE. THERE WILL  BE A GOOD SURGE
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY WITH 25 TO 30 KT LOLVL JET.
THE SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY...AND BY
TUESDAY NIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND. THE WEATHER PATTERN GETS SOMEWHAT
MESSY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A COUPLE OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS AFFECTING
THE REGION...IN ADDITION TO SOME UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE THE FLOW MAKING TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIFFICULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR WITH EITHER SKC OR AOA1000
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  37  60  43 /   0   0   0   0
INL  63  35  68  47 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  63  41  67  50 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  63  36  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  55  33  61  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ011-012-
     019>021.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>038.

WI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-
     007>009.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ006.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC






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