Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 191153
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
653 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

***AVIATION DISCUSSION 12Z TAFS AT BOTTOM***

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHLAND TODAY...BUT DRIER
AIR AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE
CLOUDS THAT COVERED MOST AREAS AS OF 0730Z AND KEEP MOST AREAS DRY
TODAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER
THIS DECK OF STRATOCU AND THAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL IT CLEARS. MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SNOWBELT REGION OF
ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES. A SPOTTER IN GILE REPORTED SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION SHORTLY AFTER 05Z AND WEBCAMS AROUND IRONWOOD ALSO
SHOW SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. SHIP AND BUOY OBS INDICATE THE LAKE
IS AROUND 2 TO 4C AND WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C THIS
MORNING...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING AS TEMPS
WARM AND DRIER AIR CONTINUE TO MOVES IN. WE FOLLOWED THE RAP/NAM
ON CLEARING TODAY AND WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE FIFTIES FOR MOST AREAS.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH AND WINDS LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST AREAS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH
SOME LOCALIZED AREAS INTO THE LOWER TWENTIES.

WE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE SIXTIES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
JUST BE NEARING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

QUIET PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES.  MODELS SHOW A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST REGION EARLY THURSDAY BUT ONLY CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN WITH
THIS SYSTEM.  THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SWITCH AROUND TO A S-SW FLOW
BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.  THE
MODELS INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME.  THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  MODELS DO SHOW
SOME INCREASE INSTABILITY...SO WILL HAVE ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

AN AREA OF STRATUS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SKIES ARE IFR-MVFR ACROSS THE DLH AND HYR TAF
SITES.  THE BACK END OF THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR DLH BY 14Z AND HYR
BY 16Z RAINING CIGS TO VFR. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER,

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  34  63  39 /   0   0   0   0
INL  53  26  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  55  30  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  53  27  64  38 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  53  32  62  38 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-140-
     146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART





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