Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 192019
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
319 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND
REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SLIGHTLY
WARMER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. BE SURE TO
BRING ANY TEMPERATURE-SENSITIVE PLANTS INDOORS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AREA
ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING...AND POSSIBLY A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING W-E OVER FAR NERN MN AS A WEAK UPPER S/W
AND SFC WAVE MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND MAINLY ACT TO INCREASE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AND KEEP WINDS ELEVATED FROM THE NW AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL COMBINE WITH A WARMING AIR MASS TO
PRODUCE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WED...MUCH CLOSER TO
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

IN SUMMARY...THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AND SUNNY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A LITTLE UNDER NORMAL...BUT WILL BUILD TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SUBTLE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND...FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
CLOUD COVER AND NO PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATE THURSDAY. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SUNNY AND DRY WITH COOL NW FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO
THE 60S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY. LIGHT SSW
TO SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE.
THE SUNSHINE AND WIND FLOW REGIME SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS. THERE COULD
BE A MID TO LATE AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE...SO AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY
WILL AMPLIFY INTO SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN LIFT
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR
EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY...THEN LIFT TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LOW TRACKS. THE
GFS IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF...AND THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST
BETTER POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHLAND THAN THE
ECMWF. THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING ASSOCIATED PCPN INTO THE NORTHLAND
UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF PCPN OVER THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IT APPEARS THIS
BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL BAND...AND THE
GFS DOES NOT HAVE ANY SURFACE OR MOST UNSTABLE CAPE WITH THIS BAND.
PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD BEEN CARRYING THUNDER FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DECIDED THE LACK OF INSTABILITY DOES NOT
JUSTIFY CONTINUING TO FORECAST THUNDER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

EXPECT PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT... AND WILL PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OUT OF THE WEST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  62  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
INL  28  66  38  65 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  32  63  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  27  62  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  30  62  40  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MCLOVIN





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