Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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814
FXUS63 KDLH 240543
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1143 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1133 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Updated aviation section below.

UPDATE Issued at 541 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Updated aviation section below. Have made some small updates to
pops and precipitation early this evening, but otherwise forecast
is essentially the same.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

The clouds and mild temperatures continue into Tuesday before an
organized low approaches from the southwest late Tuesday into
Tuesday night.

Today occasional flurries/sprinkles developed across the I-35
corridor associated with a weak trough axis swinging across
northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. This light
precipitation will taper off towards this evening as the trough axis
exits and drier air builds in at mid-levels...though the stubborn
stratus deck will remain.

Tonight into early Tuesday an area of high pressure briefly builds
across the upper Mississippi River Valley with lows falling to the
mid 20s to low 30s and patchy fog.

On Tuesday a mid-level shortwave trough ejects from the broad trough
digging in across the western third of the lower 48 with a resultant
low depend over the eastern Great Plains lifting northeast towards
southern Wisconsin. As this low approaches from the south,
precipitation chances will increase from south to north late
Tuesday. Recent guidance is trending towards a slower start to
precipitation, so forecast has been adjusted to back off the higher
chances until after 00z (6pm) Tuesday. Precipitation will begin as a
light rain/drizzle/snow mix before changing over all to snow Tuesday
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 308 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Tuesday night into Wednesday snow will spread across northwest
Wisconsin into parts of northeast Minnesota. Around 1-3" of snowfall
is expected in northwest Wisconsin, with the highest totals in Price
county. Up to an inch possible in east-central MN, but otherwise
little to no accumulation expected in northeast Minnesota. As the
low tracks across southern Wisconsin towards northern Michigan,
colder air will be wrapped in from the north across northern
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin the wake of the low, which will
result in lake effect snow persisting along the south shore through
the weekend. Temperatures finally (but slowly) move towards more
typical conditions for this time of year. Highs in the 30s
Wednesday, upper 20s Thursday, then low to mid 20s through the
weekend. Lows are coldest Saturday night in the single digits above
zero. (Normal highs for this period are around 20, lows around a few
degrees above zero.)

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Widespread MVFR conditions to slowly deteriorate, and may fall
into IFR or even LIFR conditions between 09z and 15z before
improving again to MVFR or better. A few holes may develop in the
overcast with ceilings improving to VFR or better for an hour or
two through approximately 22z, with little persistence in the VFR
conditions. A storm system affecting central and southern
Minnesota and Wisconsin will spread some light snow into
KDLH, KBRD, and KHYR after 22z, keeping ceilings MVFR. Lower
ceilings and visibilities possible after 06z tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  34  27  32 /  10  10  40  40
INL  23  33  20  30 /  10  10  20  20
BRD  26  34  26  30 /  10  30  40  40
HYR  29  38  30  35 /  10  40  60  60
ASX  30  36  29  36 /  20  10  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GSF/JJM
AVIATION...LE



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