Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 102038
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
338 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

A fairly tranquil pattern under high pressure. Winds remain
fairly light. Temperatures will drop to below freezing again
tonight for some more morning frost.

Temperatures will be on the increase as warmer air advects into
the region on Wednesday with dry conditions for the remainder of
the week.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Relatively warm weather will begin the period, but temperatures
will return to near normal by the end of the week. Rain is likely
at some point over the weekend, and maybe some snow. More on that
below.

A mid-level ridge will move from the Upper Midwest and south-central
Canada to the northeastern US and eastern Canada early in the
period. Warm and gusty southerly flow will develop across the
Northland Thursday. This flow will pump humidity into the region, so
expect mostly to fully cloudy skies, especially over the Arrowhead
and northwest Wisconsin where there could be very light rain. If not
for the cloud cover, the forecast would probably be much warmer.

A deep low will lift across southern Canada Thursday night and
Friday, bringing a cold front through the Northland. It does not
look like there could be any rain with this front until it moves
into the Arrowhead late Thursday night and northwest Wisconsin late
Thursday night and Friday. Rain chances in northwest Wisconsin
increase into Friday afternoon, mainly because the GFS indicates a
shortwave might lift into Wisconsin and provide extra forcing for
rain.

A deep longwave trough will move out of the Rocky Mountains and lift
towards the Great Lakes over the weekend. This will likely lift a
surface low from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes. The surface
low, combined with forcing from the longwave trough, will likely
bring a period of rain to parts of the Northland sometime between
Saturday afternoon and Sunday evening. There are some model
differences in timing, as well as in precipitation type. The 00Z
European was even suggesting up to several inches of snow, with its
greatest amounts in northwest Wisconsin. The 12Z European was not
fully available for us to compare to its previous run, but it looked
like it may be backing off on the snow. The Canadian and GFS suggest
some light snow Saturday night and early Sunday. It`s too early to
to start throwing around snowfall numbers yet, but we will need to
keep an eye on the models for this system to see if the Northland
gets its first snowfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

High pressure was over the northeast Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin, as of early this afternoon, and was providing the
region clear skies and light wind flow. This high pressure will
shift east today into tomorrow. Expect VFR conditions through the
period. The threat of fog tonight is very low, as it looks too
dry. Light southeast flow will develop Wednesday morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  55  48  59 /   0   0  20  20
INL  29  57  46  62 /   0   0  10   0
BRD  32  55  49  63 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  32  59  49  60 /   0   0  10  20
ASX  32  58  47  62 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...Grochocinski



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