Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 250536
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1136 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

A WEAK SHORTWAVE HAS LED TO SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS OVER
FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. WE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AS THESE PROGRESS E/SE THIS EVENING.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH SHORE HAVE DIMINISHED
AS THE LOW LEVEL HAS BACKED.

SOUNDINGS AND CLOUD TOP TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

AT 400 PM...IT WAS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. PERSISTENT
LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WERE A FEW REPORTS OF DRIZZLE EARLIER...AS WELL AS A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 28 AT KCKC TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE. AN AREA OF MORE PRONOUNCED LIGHT SNOW WAS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY.

THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY WILL SLIDE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND ALSO FAR NORTHERN MN OVERNIGHT.
HAVE MAINTAINED LIGHT SNOW MENTION ACROSS THAT AREA...AND WE COULD
SEE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTH. ELSEWHERE...WE
SHOULD SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES.

ON CHRISTMAS DAY...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME WE HAVE BEEN SEEING.
LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.
WE SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STILL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR
TRAVEL ON CHRISTMAS DAY...ALTHOUGH ROADS COULD BE A BIT SLICK DUE
TO SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

A WEAK UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND BRING WIDESPREAD
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE INITIAL BAND OF SNOW WILL BE ALONG A STRONG MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE ORIENTED FROM ERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SECOND
PUSH OF SNOW WILL BE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE PARENT SFC LOW AND
BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS LATER ON
FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND ROUND OF SNOW FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHIFTS
TO THE EAST. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
EXIT TO THE EAST AND LINGER A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER NRN WI EARLY  IN
THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE NW WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES ON
SUNDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DRY BUT COLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH OCCASIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH MORNING LOWS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...HIGHS IN THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS IN LOWER 20S AND TEENS SAT
AND SUN...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. THE
REAL COLD AIR WILL BE FELT MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

MAINLY IFR/LOW MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME VFR CEILINGS...BUT THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
LOCALIZED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TONIGHT AND WITH LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS LATER
TONIGHT...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A NARROW BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL FGEN. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THIS BAND
SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BUT THE MID LEVEL FGEN IS FURTHER NORTH
IMPACTING KDLH/KHYR/KBRD. AT THIS TIME...WE DO BRING IN SNOW TO
KDLH/KHYR/KBRD EITHER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  32  26  31 /  10  20  40  40
INL  28  29  22  24 /  50  10  10  20
BRD  27  31  24  27 /  10  30  50  40
HYR  28  33  27  33 /  10  40  30  50
ASX  30  33  28  34 /  10  30  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MELDE





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