Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 110907

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
307 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

An area of light snow continued to move through eastern portions of
the Northland and was diminishing elsewhere. Forecast soundings and
latest IR imagery shows drying aloft which may lead to some light
freezing drizzle in spots as the precipitation ends. A shortwave was
moving across southern Manitoba and will continue east along the
International Border. This feature may spread light snow as it moves
through today. There will also be some lake effect snow this
morning along the North Shore, mainly near and north of Lutsen due
to southerly winds and still favorable delta-T values.

There will be some sun over western/southern portions of the
Northland but clouds are then expected to move back in this
afternoon and evening. Expect highs from the upper twenties to
middle thirties.

The shortwave and trough will continue to move through the Northland
tonight with mostly cloudy skies continuing. Lows will be in the
teens to lower twenties. High pressure will build in on Sunday
behind the exiting shortwave/trough with clouds gradually
diminishing for most areas. Highs will be in the upper twenties to
lower thirties.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

The extended forecast period continues to feature a few chances of
precipitation, mainly in the form of rain and snow, with
temperatures gradually warming up, increasing to above freezing for
most, if not all of the Northland for Tuesday.

The start of the work week is looking dry as high pressure remains
in control over the region, along with mid-level ridging over the
northern Great Plains. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is
progged to dive southeast over the northeastern half of the forecast
area Monday afternoon and evening, but model soundings indicate a
lack of sufficient moisture to support any precipitation chances.
The next best chances of precipitation don`t come until Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday morning as a more potent mid-level
shortwave moves into the region. Some low-level warm air and
moisture advection will also support this precipitation, which
should fall mainly in the form of rain, although some snow flakes
may mix in with the rain. Tuesday should be the warmest day of the
week, with highs returning to the lower 40s for most of the

The main focus for precipitation in the extended will be during the
Thursday afternoon through Friday period as a stronger system is
progged to develop from some of the model guidance. There is some
considerable uncertainty with the latest model runs regarding the
coverage, timing, and precipitation amounts with this system. The
GFS is the most aggressive with precipitation amounts, while the
ECMWF/GEM models are going much drier. There`s quite a bit of spread
in the track of the sfc low between these models, but the consensus
blends are indicating chance PoPs across the Northland. Due to the
uncertainty, leaned towards these blends. Much will depend on the
sfc low tracks, so will continue to monitor. Temperatures will
gradually decrease later in the week, with highs returning back to
the lower to middle 30s Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017

A band of snow moving through the area has brought a few hours of
IFR/LIFR conditions to the terminals in the last few hours. It
will continue to affect KHYR and KDLH until no later than 08z,
with lingering MVFR ceilings for several hours. KBRD, KDLH, KHIB
and KHYR should return to VFR by 16z, but KINL should remain MVFR
through the rest of the TAF period. The MVFR ceilings should
spread back into the remaining terminals from northwest to
southeast beginning around 20z.


DLH  33  22  31  20 /  10  10   0   0
INL  29  16  28  15 /  60  10  10   0
BRD  36  22  32  21 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  36  23  34  19 /  20  10   0   0
ASX  37  25  35  23 /  10  10  10   0


LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for LSZ121-

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ140-141.



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