Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 182339
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
639 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

A compact shortwave trough was located over northeast Minnesota,
western Lake Superior, and northern Wisconsin this afternoon.
Surface low pressure was centered near Duluth, with rain and snow
showers slowly ending over northeast Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin. A few more showers, and possibly a rumble of thunder,
may develop and would affect portions of Sawyer, Price, southern
Ashland, and southern Iron Counties by this evening. Overall, look
for precipitation to end for all locales by 10 PM. Clouds will
loiter over the area through late evening before subsidence and
drier air are successful in eroding the stratus. The clear skies
will be detrimental to, well, clear skies as fog is likely to
develop from the precipitation today and efficient radiational
cooling tonight. Winds will back northerly tonight behind the
departing low, and then veer easterly ahead of the next system for
Wednesday afternoon/evening. High pressure building into the area
tonight will yield calm winds over much of northern Minnesota and
inland areas of northwest Wisconsin. One notable exception will be
along the North Shore, including MN Highway 61 from Duluth to
Grand Portage. The northwest wind and cool air advection should
result in katabatic winds tonight, and have raised wind speeds and
gusts above guidance.

High pressure will continue to advance eastward on Wednesday.
Mainly sunny skies are expected over northern Minnesota, with
partly cloudy skies over our southern zones. A warm front will
lift into our southern counties by late afternoon, with isentropic
upglide over the frontal surface expected. The clouds will spread
northward during the afternoon, and there is a chance of rain
showers as far north as Walker, Grand Rapids, and Two Harbors by
evening. Easterly winds off Lake Superior will keep temperatures
along the North Shore and in the Twin Ports a little cooler.
High temperatures will reach the low 50s in the west and south,
with 40s along and inland from Lake Superior

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

An area of low pressure will move from the Central Plains
Wednesday evening to the central Great Lakes by Thursday evening,
bringing light to moderate precipitation to much of the Upper
Midwest, including as far north as northeast Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin. The southern two-thirds of the forecast area
have a good chance of precipitation Wednesday night through
Thursday evening. Much of this precipitation will likely be a cold
rain or a sloppy mixture of rain and snow. The temperature
forecast for Thursday was lowered based on some of the latest
model guidance. The GFS/NAM/European were much cooler than the
previous forecast, and since the cloud cover and dynamic cooling
from falling snow should limit the heating, preferred moving away
from the climatologically rooted MOS guidance towards the cooler
deterministic guidance of the stated models. The latest forecast
is for highs in the upper 30s to middle 40s for much of the
Northland, with upper 40s in the far west. The forecast now has
much more wintry weather in forecast compared to the previous
forecast. Some areas near Lake Superior, including along the
higher terrain of the North Shore and the Twin Ports area, could
get up to a couple inches of snow.

High pressure will build into the Northland Thursday night and
Friday, providing sunnier, drier, and warmer weather for the end
of the week. A cold front will likely move through the Northland
late Saturday and bring cooler weather for early next week. There
are low chances of light precipitation with the passing cold
front. The latest GFS and European are trending towards agreement
on a High Plains low developing Sunday night, moving through South
Dakota Monday, and bringing light to moderate precipitation to
the Northland late Monday through early Tuesday. The models in
fact have quite good agreement considering how far out this
feature is in time. It looks like, then, the Northland may get
another wetting rain to help tamper down the fire weather threat
as we gradually work our way through the phase of spring from the
transition from ugly brown grass and bare trees to greenery.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

A region of low pressure will shift off to the east across Lake
Superior with lingering rain shower possible over KHYR till 01Z.
Expecting drier air to infiltrate region but due to decent surface
moisture from earlier showers will give rise to reduced visibilities
and ceilings with introduction of fog during evening and
overnight. Expecting visibilities to reduce down through 12Z. Will
see a wind shift during the evening and overnight with more of a
lighter northerly flow contributing to lowering of ceilings and
reduced visibilities.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  43  33  41 /  10  30  70  60
INL  29  52  33  50 /   0   0  10  10
BRD  34  52  36  49 /   0  50  60  40
HYR  36  51  37  41 /  10  70  80  70
ASX  36  44  34  39 /  30  40  70  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...WM



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