Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 200825
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
325 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

A weak ridge of high pressure was over the Northland early this
morning. This high will move east today and a trough will move
into the region and act on a baroclinic zone to produce a strong
area of FGEN. Showers and a few thunderstorms were occurring over
portions of southwest to south central North Dakota into central
South Dakota as of 08Z and this is expected to move into portions
of the Northland this morning. We made some significant changes to
the forecast for today by increasing the chance for rain quite a
bit. The HRRR is most aggressive with rain coverage and if it
ends up being correct, we`ll have to increase the chance even
further and possibly spread further east into northern Wisconsin.
Highs today will be in the upper sixties to lower seventies.

The FGEN will weaken this evening and the area of rain should
diminish. A warm front will extend from low pressure in the
Central Plains northeast into southern Minnesota and southern
Wisconsin. The front will move little into Wednesday. A shortwave
will move along the frontal surface as well Wednesday along with
strengthening FGEN/WAA and cause showers and storms to increase
through the day, especially along and south of Highway 2 including
all of northwest Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

The area of low pressure will slowly move into the Central Plains
by Thursday as an inverted trough is located over central MN. The
main concern is where the heavier rain will fall. With the
shortwaves moving through the trough and the dynamics, it looks
like the heavier rain will be across NW WI based on past trends
and model forecast. Models are still different with the NAM
further north with the rainfall with the GFS further south and the
ECMWF a little closer to the GFS. Went with a GFS/ ECMWF
compromise for solution. Similar to previous shift, will not put
any potential flooding wording in for now until the situation can
be better defined.

There will be a break in the rain as the trough drifts south out of
the forecast area on Thursday.  But the precipitation returns as the
warm front drifts back north Thursday night and Friday.  It does
look like it could be decent amounts of rain with 0.25 to 0.50
possible.  The upper level trough will move through the region
Saturday night through Sunday night with shortwaves passing through
the region.  This will keep the threat of rain Sunday night.
Finally, it dries out on Monday as a ridge builds into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

High pressure will gradually lose its grip on the Northland, as
strong warm air advection pushes into the region from the south. A
warm front is expected to develop across central Minnesota on
Tuesday, with a few showers developing in the vicinity of the front.
Have included vicinity showers in the KBRD TAF for a time Tuesday
Morning. Conditions are expected to remain VFR throughout the period
at all sites.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  71  51  65  51 /  40  10  50  40
INL  70  46  64  43 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  71  53  67  52 /  50  10  70  40
HYR  74  53  68  54 /  20  20  70  70
ASX  73  54  66  52 /  10  10  50  60

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...Stewart
AVIATION...Stewart



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