Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 241010
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
410 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

AT 4 AM...MUCH OF THE CWA WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION. TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S ACROSS THE CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE TEENS RIGHT ALONG THE BORDER REGION. WINDS WERE
FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...BUT WERE NORTHWEST ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WIND SPEEDS WERE INCREASING QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE AT BAUDETTE AND
ROSEAU. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUED ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN MN WITH SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE NORTH.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME...BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
SPOTS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S WILL GENERALLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. HAVE RAISED WIND SPEEDS QUITE A BIT...AS WE WILL SEE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH H85 WINDS TO 40 KNOTS. COULD
EASILY SEE WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...WITH A FEW
HIGHER WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT CLOUD
STREETS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO DEVELOP DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE IN THE ARROWHEAD AND
ACROSS NW WI ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. MAY NEED TO ISSUE
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTH TONIGHT.

WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL STILL REMAIN
ON THE COLD SIDE. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NEAR ZERO IN THE FAR NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER TEENS IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

A ZONAL FLOW...COMBINED WITH BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER PLAINS...WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
BRING A BRIEF WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN UPPER STREAM TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA REGION SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT TO DEVELOP IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A CORRIDOR OF SNOW...POTENTIALLY
HEAVY...WILL BE FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE THERMAL
GRADIENT/FRONTOGENESIS.  AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE MOISTURE/SNOW REACHES AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN WIS...WITH ONLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS
VERY FAR OUT IN THE LONG RANGE SO TIMING AND TRACK ARE OPEN TO QUITE
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST TUE FEB 24 MON FEB 23 2015

BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS MOVING THROUGH THE
TERMINALS AS OF 06Z. A STRONG COLD FRONT TO BEGIN MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA 09Z-15Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE
ENOUGH COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AROUND 18Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS AS
OF 06Z ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND COLD FRONT AND THEN
INCREASE AFTER 15Z SUSTAINING AROUND 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25KTS. WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER 22Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  20 -10   7 -12 /  40   0   0   0
INL  14 -21   1 -22 /  30   0   0   0
BRD  23  -7   9 -13 /  30   0   0   0
HYR  24 -11  10 -16 /  40  10   0   0
ASX  23  -8   8 -11 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE







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