Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 271139
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
639 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

EARLY THIS MORNING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR VIA INFRARED SATELLITE. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WERE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD...RESULTING
IN A LONGER FETCH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOSTLY OPEN WATERS. THIS WAS
ALSO OCCURRING AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE CURRENT AIR MASS MOVED
ACROSS THE LAKE...850MB TEMPS OF -15 TO -17 IN WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE SFC-H85 TEMP DIFF OF 12 TO 15
DEGREES CELSIUS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LAST THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM UP AND LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DEVELOPS. UP TO AN INCH IS EXPECTED IN FAR
NORTHERN IRON AND ASHLAND COUNTIES...WITH JUST A DUSTING ELSEWHERE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. WHILE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR
REGION...SOME HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA DUE TO THIS SYSTEM. SCATTERED CLOUDS FROM LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...BUT OTHERWISE A SUNNY DAY TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL DUE TO VERY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN THE 30S...EXCEPT ACROSS THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN
AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH EXPERIENCE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WHERE TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM UP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES. SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BUT NOT BY MUCH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MICHIGAN. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MN ARROWHEAD AND INLAND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN TO TEENS ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE
DAY. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP OVER MINNESOTA DUE TO A DEEPENING LOW IN THE
DAKOTAS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SET UP WILL
RESULT IN LOW/MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING
FROM -10C TO -14C TO 0C TO -5C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY
BECOME BREEZY WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING UP TO 850MB
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20KTS AND PEAK
GUSTS APPROACHING 30KTS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE TEMPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH
THE STRONGEST SYSTEM OCCURRING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY THEN SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH A SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

STRONG WAA WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO A LLJ OF 40 TO 50
KNOTS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL EXTEND
SOUTH FROM THE MAIN LOW THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WINTRY
MIX WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS WARMER TEMPS SURGE NORTH AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT. WE KEPT HIGH POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE
OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A VARIETY OF PRECIP TYPES ARE
POSSIBLE RANGING FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN...WE KEPT IT SIMPLE AT THIS TIME AND WENT WITH RAIN
AND SNOW. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A SHORTER TERM FORECAST PROBLEM. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE LESS THAN 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM ENOUGH SUNDAY TO SWITCH THE PRECIP TO MAINLY RAIN FOR
MOST AREAS. IT WILL BE WINDY AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT SWITCHING TO
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS SLOWER
AND WEAKER. WE HAVE JUST SOME LOW POPS AT THIS TIME BUT MAY HAVE TO
INCREASE ONCE BETTER AGREEMENT OCCURS. PRECIP TYPE MAY START OUT AS
A MIX...SWITCH TO RAIN BEFORE GOING BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...ANY SNOWFALL LOOK TO BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. MUCH UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS THIS SYSTEM WITH QUITE A BIT OF
MODEL UNCERTAINTY. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES...THEY BOTH BRING UP WARM ENOUGH AIR FOR MOSTLY RAIN
WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME SPOTTY LOW VFR
CEILINGS ALONG A PORTION OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO/NEAR
THE TWIN PORTS AS CLOUDS STREAM OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SOME MID
LEVEL CEILINGS MAY WILL ALSO MOVE INTO KBRD LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  17  43  32 /   0   0   0  80
INL  37  12  47  36 /   0   0   0  80
BRD  36  17  45  36 /   0  10   0  80
HYR  34   9  45  31 /   0   0   0  60
ASX  31  12  45  32 /  40   0   0  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE





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