Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 260002
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
702 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTHLAND IS FINALLY PULLING
OUT OVER QUEBEC WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
DECK OF CLOUDS STILL SWIRLING AROUND THE LOW OVER THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN BUT THESE WERE SLOWLY ERODING
FROM THE WEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE EROSION OF THESE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER GETS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THE SHORT TERM
MODELS AREA HINTING THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEARED OUT
BY LATE TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN AND LIGHTER WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
IN THE MORNING HOURS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FOR THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE SLOW MOVING LOW WILL TRACK EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHLAND. OVERALL INSTABILITY AT THIS
POINT LOOKS RATHER WEAK SO ONLY WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVER THE ST. CROIX
RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. RAIN WILL DIMINISH AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A
BRIEF DRY PERIOD WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE NORTHLAND FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION
WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD FOR THE SEASON WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
70S THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WARMING TO THE LOWER 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OVER NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

EARLY ON IN THE FORECAST A LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARDS...HOWEVER IT WILL KEEP EASTERN
TERMINALS IN SOME CLOUD COVER. CIGS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS
PER THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO MINNESOTA
AND MOVE EASTWARDS INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THIS
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG
DEVELOPING AT KHYR...KBRD AND KHIB. PER THE LATEST RAP
GUIDANCE...FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT KHYR WILL SEE LIFR CONDITIONS
FROM TIME TO TIME BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. LESS CONFIDENT IN KHIB...SO
KEPT IN IFR DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. KBRD MAY SEE VISBY DROP TO
MVFR...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT DUE TO HIGHER WINDS AND A LARGER
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD TO OVER COME. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  72  51  75 /   0   0   0  10
INL  40  73  48  77 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  45  74  52  77 /   0   0   0  20
HYR  43  71  43  75 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  47  70  46  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...WL


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