Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 202021
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

ONE LAST CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY WAS MOVING OVER THE FA AS OF
19Z. THIS WAS RESULTING IN CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS AREA OF VORTICITY. SFC
RIDGING WAS ALREADY FOUND OVER THE FA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH E INTO THE FA TONIGHT AND RE-ENFORCE THE SFC
RIDGING. THE CLOUDS WILL DISPERSE OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
EDGES OF THE FA THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEAVING
THE FA IN A WAA RETURN FLOW REGIME. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND ERODE AWAY THE LEFT OVER CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...SFC WIND WILL BE FROM THE COOLER LAKE AND KEEP MAX TEMPS
FROM WARMING OUT OF THE 40S. MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL OCCUR OVER
THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THIS WEEK.  IT WILL PULL A
NICE FEED OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT ON FRIDAY...AND WE SHOULD GET AN
AREA OF SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY
LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE ARE
MARGINAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THUNDER...SO HAVE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW AND CAN RE-EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO IT.  PW VALUES
ARE UP IN THE 1.0 TO 1.25 RANGE...ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY
SO.  WEDNESDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S DESPITE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO HOLD THINGS DOWN.  CLOUDS TO ALSO
HOLD MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UP IN THE 40S.  THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH ON THURSDAY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE ENOUGH FOR HIGHS TO GET
INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S...BUT DEPENDING ON TIMING THIS MAY NEED TO
BE LOWERED.  MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 40S
WITH CLOUDS STILL IN THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO RUN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND AFFECT CANADA WITH
A PRECIPITATION EVENT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE
MIGHT GET A SURGE OF COLDER AIR AND CLOUDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THE
SYSTEM SENDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALSO
SUPPRESSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL COOL SATURDAY OFF
SOME WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TEMPORARILY ALONG WITH A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SETTING UP OVER
THE ROCKIES THOUGH...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.  SUNDAY
TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY TO BE PUSHED BACK DOWN TO
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA.  HAVE LEFT PRECIP AS ALL RAIN FOR NOW...BUT THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING A WINTRY MIX MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP PLENTY OF STRATUS OVER THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH CIGS MAINLY MVFR. SOME BREAKS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING...BUT THEN STRATUS SHOULD FILL
IN AGAIN AND THEN SLOWLY LOWER. KDLH AND KHYR MAY LOWER TO IFR
AFTER 09Z TONIGHT....LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z TUESDAY. HAVE
LEFT IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z FOR NOW AS END TIME IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE KHIB AND KINL TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. KBRD IS NOT UNDER THE STRATUS...THOUGH IT
MAY GET SOME BROKEN MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE KBRD TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  48  36  54 /   0   0   0  10
INL  31  53  37  59 /   0   0   0  20
BRD  33  55  38  57 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  30  52  33  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  33  49  33  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE




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