Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 142336
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
536 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

The first day of a rather major warmup was off to a great start,
as temperatures rose into the teens and 20s across the region. The
warmest location appears to be Silver bay Harbor, which was
reporting 30 degrees as of 3 pm. This was partially due to
downslope compressional warming. Aside from temperatures, abundant
sunshine was found across the Northland.

The main focus for tonight and Sunday will generally be
temperatures and cloud cover. With dry air holding firm between an
area of low pressure to the north and developing low pressure well
to the south, we should see clear skies tonight and sunny skies on
Sunday. Temperatures should generally fall below zero again
tonight, but rise into the 20s for most areas on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

The main concern in the extended is an area of low pressure
moving into the Upper Midwest from the Central Plains, which will
bring a wintry mix of precipitation early this week. The trough
associated with the low will cutoff across eastern NM late on
Sunday and lift northeastward into the Central Plains by Monday
afternoon. This feature will move northeastward into the Upper
Midwest on Monday and exit the Northland late on Tuesday. Another
trough will dig in from the northwest late on Monday and into
Tuesday. The latest forecast guidance keeps these two pieces of
energy separate with the cutoff lifting into the Central Great
Lakes late on Tuesday. There is still some discrepancy between the
GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF in how quickly the precipitation moves in. At
the moment the NAM is the outlier, so leaned on the GFS/GEM/ECMWF
with precipitation chances by Monday afternoon across the southern
half of the CWA. Based on thermal profiles of the GFS/ECMWF/GEM
expecting a wintry mix of freezing rain, snow, sleet, freezing
rain or rain Monday evening into Tuesday. With the best chances of
freezing rain mainly over NW WI, but may leak into the I-35
corridor in NE MN. Farther to the north and west, precipitation
will remain all snow. Snow amounts from the I-35 corridor east
range from 1 to 2 inches, while lesser amounts can be expected
further to the north and west.

As was seen with the previous model runs, guidance is still all over
the place with the progression of the second trough. The ECMWF/GEM
cut off the trough over the Central Plains late on
Tuesday/Wednesday, while the GFS is more progressive moving the
trough into the Ohio River Valley by Wednesday. Leaned on the
ECWMF/GEM, which is the drier solution for Tuesday evening into
Wednesday.

Expect dry conditions for much of the week as high pressure builds
over the Northern Plains. Next chance of precipitation comes late on
the week as a low move into the Northland from the Central Plains.
At the moment expecting a rain/snow mixture before becoming all
snow. Expecting warmer than normal temperatures through the
extended. Highs late in the week will range from the mid 30`s to low
40`s. Low temperatures late in the week range from the 20`s to the
low 30`s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 536 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Dry high pressure will lead to clear or mostly clear skies through
the period. As winds become light tonight, there may be some
patchy fog that forms but the chance is not expected to be great
enough to include in any of the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   1  25  12  27 /   0   0   0  20
INL  -5  25   8  27 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  -6  25  10  28 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  -8  28  10  30 /   0   0   0  50
ASX   0  28  14  32 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...WL
AVIATION...Melde



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