Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 160127
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
727 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 727 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

THE SNOW HAS STAYED S OF THE FA THIS EVENING...BUT STILL EXPECT IT
TO SPREAD NEWD INTO NW WI TONIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

THE NORTHLAND HAS BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN A FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH ACROSS ALBERTA CANADA. THE WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN WILL DRIFT INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW WILL
NUDGE INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 70 FROM
SPOONER TO WINTER AND PARK FALLS. ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS REGION...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ONLY AROUND AN
INCH.

A WEDGE OF DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES IS CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRY AIR WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
REPLACED BY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. DUE
TO THE PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ZONES FOR TONIGHT.

THE CLIPPER WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW AS REACHES THE MN
ARROWHEAD/WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING A SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WITH H85 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF NEGATIVE 20 C. MODELS ARE
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD CORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
MOVES INTO NORTHERN MN SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING H50 TEMPS IN THE
NEGATIVE 40S C. THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH VERY HIGH QPF TO SNOWFALL
RATIOS...SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND PWAT VALUES
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.2 INCHES...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS PICKING UP AROUND AN INCH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER LAKE EFFECT EVENT SETS UP FROM
BAYFIELD TO ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL ALSO BE A CHALLENGE AS A COLD
ARCTIC AIR MASS POURS INTO THE REGION.

A DEEP UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BE SLIDING SEWD THROUGH
THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS ORIGINATING
FROM NRN CANADA BLASTING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NE MN
ON MONDAY...BUT THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE WHERE A FAVORABLE NLY FETCH ACROSS A RELATIVELY WARM LAKE AND
COLD TEMPS IN THE MID LEVEL..850 MB TEMPS AROUND -17 DEG C...WILL
PRODUCE STEEP BL LAPSE RATES AND COMBINE WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
TO INDUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM BAYFIELD TO IRON COUNTY IN NW WI
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT
TO THE EAST TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE NEXT WAVE DROPS IN OVER NRN
MN. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE
LAKE AND ACT TO END THE LES PROCESSES TUE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES IN BAYFIELD
CNTY...TO POSSIBLY GREATER THAN 8 INCHES IN ASHLAND AND IRON
COUNTIES. COULD SEE LOCATIONS OVER A FOOT IN THE USUAL FAVORED
LOCATIONS ALONG HIGHWAY 77. EXACT AMOUNTS ARE STILL IN
QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOW OCCURRING MON AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUE MORNING IS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO AHEAD WITH A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH FOR ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES. WILL RUN THE WATCH FROM 10
AM MONDAY THROUGH 4 PM TUESDAY.

THE NEXT S/W EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW TUE NIGHT AND WED WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW AMTS TO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...AND
EVENTUALLY ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
ONCE AGAIN WED EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND WI WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES
TO HYR WITH VFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE OUTSET
OF THE FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM N TO S
THROUGH 12Z. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS AFTER
17Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW
WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   3  17   8  16 /   0  20  60  30
INL   2  19   6  15 /   0  60  70  40
BRD  -1  16   6  15 /  10  20  40  30
HYR   5  18   7  17 /  40  10  40  70
ASX   7  21  10  20 /  20  10  50  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WIZ003-004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GSF







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