Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 180000
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
700 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Updated for the new 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Main concern for short term will be WINTRY mix mix tonight

A strong low pressure system will move across the dakotas this
evening and northern MN Tuesday. This will spread precipitation
into the western portions of the forecast area around midnight and
progress east overnight. The main concern will be in areas mainly
north of Highway 2 after midnight through mid-morning Tuesday.
Surface temps will be below freezing but warmer temps in the lower
levels due to the southerly flow at those levels. forecast
soundings do suggest a possibility of sleet and freezing rain
along with the rain and snow with the best shot in eastern
Koochiching, northern and central St. Louis, and inland Lake and
Cook counties. An advisory will be issued for those areas
overnight into Tuesday morning.  The area south of Highway 2 will
remain above freezing overnight.

Warmer air into the advisory area changing over to all rain. The
rain will begin to taper off west to east in the afternoon. Much
needed rain will total between 0.25 to 0.75 inches with the
heaviest amounts in the north.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Surface low pressure moves east of the forecast area Tuesday
evening, followed by high pressure. Have some low pops over the
eastern edge of the area to account for any lingering precipitation
in the evening, then dry overnight. The high begins to move off to
the east Wednesday morning, but still a dry forecast. However, by
afternoon, the next area of low pressure begins to affect the
southern tier of the region. Model differences begin Wednesday
afternoon and continue until the low is no longer affecting the
region late Thursday night. Differences are in northern extent of
QPF field, amount of cold air to affect precipitation types, as well
as what kind of precipitation types Wednesday night and Thursday
morning. Used a blend to resolve these differences. An all liquid
ptype is expected Thursday afternoon, except right next to Lake
Superior where a rain/snow mix is still possible. High pressure
builds over the area late Thursday night and persists through
Saturday. A weak cold front, with very little moisture of lift to
work with, clips northeast Minnesota Saturday night and Sunday
morning before dissolving. Have some small pops for what little
forcing there is to produce precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

An area of low pressure in the northern High Plains will shift
east into the Dakotas overnight and lift across central/northern
Minnesota Tuesday. This low will bring light to moderate
precipitation and lowering ceilings from the west. Expect the
widespread VFR conditions across northeast Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin to transition to widespread IFR/LIFR conditions by late
tonight or Tuesday morning. There will likely be a mixture of rain
and snow for areas of northern Minnesota, like KINL and KHIB, late
tonight and early Tuesday before transitioning back to rain late
in the morning.

The conditions at KDLH will likely deteriorate tonight, compared
to terminals to the west despite the rain coming from the west,
because of more humid conditions amidst the east flow from Lake
Superior. MVFR ceilings will likely develop late this evening or
shortly after midnight at KDLH.

There is a low threat of thunder for the KBRD, KDLH, and KHYR
areas Tuesday morning and afternoon. Kept it out of the forecast
for now, considering the complexity of the forecast and the low
probability of this threat later in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  51  34  47 /  70  80  10  10
INL  34  45  30  53 /  80  80  10   0
BRD  42  57  36  54 /  80  70   0  20
HYR  37  59  36  52 /  50  80  10  20
ASX  30  57  35  47 /  50  80  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT
     Tuesday for MNZ010>012-019.

LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...Stewart
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF



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