Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 170847
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
347 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

AT 330 AM...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING INTO
THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA. PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN FROM A SLOW MOVING
COMPLEX EARLIER IN THE NIGHT STARTED TO BREAK UP AND THE REMNANTS
WERE THE FAIRLY NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS NOW MOVING INTO
BRAINERD. TEMPS RANGED FROM NEAR 50 AT GRAND MARAIS TO THE 60S IN
THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE RESOLVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER FOR TODAY
AFTER BACKING OFF QUITE A BIT IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. WILL OBVIOUSLY
HIT THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA HARDEST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD POPS FURTHER NORTH AND EASTWARD AS THE DAY WEARS
ON. WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY IN MUCH OF NW WI AND THE
ARROWHEAD...BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE TWIN PORTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT TONIGHT...AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHES CLOSER TO MN.
THE H5 TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL
LARGELY BE OF THE SCATTERED VARIETY...IT SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES APPROACH 1.75 INCHES. COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 70S...BUT THERE WILL BE
SOME 60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THE UPPER TROF WILL STILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE SFC THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF THE
NORTHLAND...PUT MOST OF THE PCPN OVR THE NORTHLAND IN STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST MOVES OVR WI ON
TUESDAY...MOST OF THE PCPN WILL END IN THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL OVERHEAD AND STRONG LOW
TO MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF
LINGERING SHOWERS/ AND STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.  AFTER WEDNESDAY WE SEE A BIG DIVERGENCE OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS...THE ECMWF BRING ANOTHER SFC LOW INTO NWRN MN THURSDAY AND
BRINGING A WARM FRONT NORTH ...AND AS A RESULT...MORE RAIN. THE GFS
ON THE OTHER HAND...HINTS AT A BIT OF SHOWERS ALSO....BUT LITTLE
SFC SYSTEM. THE BIG PICTURE HAS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE COUNTRY...BUT A BROAD TROF IN THE WEST.  THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD THE NORTHLAND WILL MAINLY FEEL THE RESULTS OF THE TROF AS IT
DIGS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THIS COULD MEAN A WET WEEKEND FOR
THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM  CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

STRATUS THAT SPREAD IN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
KDLH AND KHIB OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS KINL FOR A SHORTER PERIOD.
HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE STRATUS FROM MOVING INTO KBRD. WILL BE
WATCHING THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MN TO SEE IF THEY
APPROACH KBRD...AND WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. KHYR IS EXPECTED TO
STAY IN THE CLEAR...AND IS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP FOG INSTEAD. FOR
NOW HAVE A PREVAILING MVFR VISIBILITY...WITH A TEMPORARY IFR
GROUP. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR SOMETIME BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z...BRINGING MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
TO THE AREA MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  54  69  58 /  20  60  70  60
INL  74  53  73  58 /  40  60  70  50
BRD  71  60  77  61 /  40  60  70  50
HYR  73  58  78  59 /  20  60  70  70
ASX  69  56  75  58 /  10  60  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...LE






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