Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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662
FXUS63 KDLH 300550
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1150 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

The forecast area was socked in with clouds as the occluded
upper/surface low was over Minnesota this afternoon. An occluded
frontal boundary was draped over northern Minnesota at 20Z/2pm,
extending back into the surface low in southwest Minnesota. With
much of the area expected to remain in the warm sector, will
continue to keep temps in the middle to upper 30s into the early
evening. This will keep the primary precipitation type liquid.

As the night progresses, there will be some cooling from the loss of
diurnal heating. Look for the rain to mix with snow initially until
near midnight before becoming all snow overnight. However, there
will be less moisture to work with and the best forcing will be over
northwest Minnesota. Pops will be lower for a bit before ramping
them back up late as the closed upper low approaches northwest
Wisconsin. Snow amounts will be light as the atmosphere remains
warm. Light winds are anticipated tonight and have expanded the fog
mention through Wednesday morning.

On Wednesday, the occluded system moves into eastern Wisconsin by
afternoon. The forecast area will eventually be on the back side of
this system, which means colder air will begin to be pulled into the
region. However, it will not be until afternoon as cold air
advection holds off until after 21Z/3pm Wednesday. Max temps will
still be above normal with middle to upper 30s forecast. The
precipitation type will change during the early morning from snow,
to a rain/snow mix, to all rain over much of the area. A rain/snow
mix is expected from Leader, Minnesota, north to INL and east to the
Isabella, Minnesota area in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

No significant changes to the long range forecast this afternoon.
Persistent cutoff low pressure will continue to fill and wobble
generally eastward Wednesday night through Saturday. A wintry mix
of rain and snow showers, with a small risk of freezing drizzle,
will continue Wednesday night through Thursday. Thursday afternoon
through Saturday morning temperatures should be cold enough to
support snow showers instead of a mix. Relatively warm inland lakes
over northern Minnesota, northwest Ontario, and Manitoba will
contribute some moisture and heat to the airmass on northerly winds.
Cyclonic flow aloft and several periods of DCVA are expected, as
well. All these factors should contribute to a prolonged period of
light snow showers and flurries through Saturday morning. Raised
POPs above the consensus blends Thursday through Saturday. Think low
chance POPs is the right answer given how slowly the system will
depart along with moisture availability and periodic weak ascent.

Weak high pressure will build into the region behind the departing
storm late Friday night and Saturday. Not convinced skies will clear
with abundant low-level moisture and potential for the thermal
inversion lingering through Saturday night. A fast-moving clipper
will cruise through the area late Saturday night and Sunday which
could bring a few inches of snow or a rain/snow mix. There are
preliminary indications another storm system may move into the Upper
Midwest in the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. Not terribly excited about
that system as of today, but will certainly bear watching.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

A stacked upper level low pressure system will continue to impact
the Northland TAF sites throughout the period. The main band of
precipitation overnight will be in the KINL and KHIB areas, but
precipitation will gradually fill in across much of the rest of
the region later in the night and on Wednesday. A mix of rain and
snow will gradually switch to mainly snow later in the night and
will remain either a mix or mainly snow showers on Wednesday. IFR
or MVFR conditions will prevail throughout the period, but the
trend will be toward IFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  37  29  32 /  40  50  50  30
INL  31  36  27  30 /  60  50  40  30
BRD  32  37  30  33 /  40  40  40  10
HYR  31  38  31  35 /  30  50  60  30
ASX  33  40  31  35 /  30  50  70  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...DAP



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