Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 191137
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
537 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

...12z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

The latest sfc analysis was indicating a weak ridge acrs the area to
the north of a quasi-stationary front laying out from along the
NE/KS border...northern MO...central IL into northern IN. Despite
the dry sfc layer, ideal radiational cooling set-up has allowed fog
to form acrs much of north central into northeastern IA overnight. A
few areas of dense fog noted on IR imagery and OBs in the far
northwestern CWA from around Vinton to the Independence IA areas.
Aloft, moisture flow pattern on the water vapor channel indicating
Omega upper blocking ridge acrs the plains starting to adjust
eastward to the MS RVR Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Today...Will keep patchy or areas of fog, some dense, going through
at least 14z-15z this morning in the far northwest, but current lack
of more widespread coverage precludes any type of fog advisory ATTM,
and will cover with a Special WX statement if needed. Will watch
trends through sunrise of course for a east-southeast creep.
Otherwise as upper ridge bulges from the west acrs the region and
llvl south-southeasterly pressure gradient tightens acrs the area as
the day progresses, the challenge will be how warm to go. Dry
landscape, southeast winds increasing to 6-9 KTS by mid afternoon
and unseasonably mild air mass/higher thicknesses support another
above guidance warm day. Only fly in the ointment may be rounds of
higher clouds spilling acrs the upper ridge axis today out of the
plains and filtering the insolation at times. But will warm current
advertised temps a few degrees which suggest mid to upper 60s north
of I80, and around 70 to the lower 70s from I80 on southward. The
newly adjusted fcst highs are at record values for all climate
sites.

Tonight...Increasing high clouds on the western flank of passing
ridge axis and ahead of an approaching trof acrs the plains, along
with ongoing southeasterly sfc pressure gradient keeping winds going
at 5-10 MPH, will make for a much milder night tonight. Lows temps
ranging from the lower 40s in the far northeastern CWA, to the low
50s in the southwest. Some higher sfc dpt advection also helping
things out. But the prime southerly warm moist conveyor supportive
of precipitation advertised by most of the 00z model runs to stay
to the west/southwest of the CWA through 12z Mon morning. Thus will
remove slight CHC POPs in the southwest for late tonight. Some of the
High Res models and american solutions suggest a sfc layer moisture
creep from the southeast up acrs IL may converge and get into the
eastern CWA late tonight and produce some areas of fog. Not that
confident yet in this process but may add at least some patchy fog
in the far east before dawn monday morning.  ..12..

.LONG TERM...(Monday through next Saturday)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Monday will be a very spring-like day for our area, as south winds
increase dewpoints to the 50s early in the day, followed by rain
showers and a few thunderstorms spreading in from west to east
during the day and afternoon. While the movement east will be slow,
cells will move north quite rapidly, and this should limit the areal
extent to any location seeing rainfall over 0.25. There is potential
that some locations seeing convection repeatedly for an hour or more
could have totals between a half inch and 1 inch, but that should be
in very narrow swaths. Despite clouds and rain, the exceptionally
mild air mass will bring a high potential for another day of record
highs in the mid to upper 60s.   Rain will exit the area Monday
night, with little if any cold advection occurring with the weak
fropa.

Tuesday a return to sunshine, west to southwest winds of downslope
origin will bring another day of record breaking warmth.  This will
transition to another possibly even warmer day Wednesday.  With a
wave of low pressure moving through Minnesota Wednesday, sending a
front down our way by evening, we should see southwest winds...
sunshine...and nearly maximized prefrontal warming of the mild air
mass already in place. This all points to a period that is likely
to be exceptional. I would not be surprised to see a new all time
record February high set at Moline Wednesday afternoon in the mid
to upper 70s. For now, since this day 4, will go a bit more
conservative and lower 60s north to 70 to 73 south which is
already above record high levels.

Thursday will see the front dropping south, and cooler air arriving
with it. Strong cyclogenesis is indicated by all extended models,
but the track of the system is far front consistent a this point.
For now, it appears the system will mainly bring rain to the area,
with some thunder also possible, followed by a transition to wet
snow on the back side following occlusion of the low and it`s
passing to the east.  During the warm advection ahead of the low,
and through the low`s passage nearby, some moderate to heavy
rainfall could occur, especially in the north 1/2. That said, the
low track is far from certain and this could change, thus we will
not highlight that threat in products yet.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Areas of MVFR to IFR fog at CID and in the VCNTY of DBQ thru 14z
this morning, then all sites VFR for most of the rest of the TAF
cycle. Southeast winds increasing to 6-9 KTS by this afternoon,
then maintaining through tonight. A low chance for lower stratus
and fog to creep toward the eastern TAF sites of MLI and BRL late
tonight out of central IL, but confidence too low with this
potential to place in the TAFs at this point.   ..12..

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Record Highs for today February 19th...

Moline.........69 in 1930
Cedar Rapids...68 in 1930
Dubuque........63 in 1930
Burlington.....70 in 1930

Record Highs for February 20th...

Moline.........65 in 1930
Cedar Rapids...60 in 1981
Dubuque........61 in 1981
Burlington.....67 in 1983

Record highs for February 21st...

Burlington.......68 in 1983
Cedar Rapids.....68 in 1983
Dubuque..........63 in 1930
Moline...........66 in 1930

Record highs for February 22nd...

Burlington.......66 in 2000 (and previous)
Cedar Rapids.....64 in 1984
Dubuque..........61 in 1984
Moline...........66 in 1922

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...12
CLIMATE...Ervin/12


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