Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDVN 282349
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
549 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

SUNNY SKIES AND DRY GROUND WITH LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR NICE WARMUP
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AT 2 PM. ANALYSIS SHOWS ONCE AGAIN AMERICAN SOLUTIONS TOO MOIST
IN LOW LEVELS WITH LIMITED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NEXT SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. UPSTREAM ANALYSIS
SUPPORTS SOLUTIONS OF CONSIDERABLE MID/HI CLOUDS MONDAY WITH SHARPLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES LASTING INTO MID WEEK AND CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH MAIN
ISSUE TOO MOIST LOW LEVELS SUGGESTING ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY TO BE LIMITED...IF
AT ALL ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN MAY BE TOO MILD TONIGHT...IN
MOSTLY SE SECTIONS IF CLOUD ARRIVAL DELAYED FOR LATER SHIFT TO MONITOR.

TONIGHT...SKIES TO BECOME CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES
POSSIBLY FAR NW SECTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. AREA LOWS MOSTLY AROUND
20 DEGREES MAY NEED TRIMMING IF CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS.

MONDAY...CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AT 6-10K
AGL TO SUGGEST ISOLATED FLURRIES STILL POSSIBLE IN IOWA...OR WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BUT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS IS MARGINAL AS LOW
LEVELS MAY BE DRIER AND LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE BASED
ON TRENDS NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. HIGHS LOWER 20S NW TO MID 30S SE
SECTIONS MAY WITH TIMING OF COLD AIR ARRIVAL MAY BE OFF BY 3+ DEGREES
FOR LATER SHIFTS TO REASSESS WITH SUGGESTION COLD AIR A FEW HOURS
SLOWER...OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPS ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TREND TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS WILL BE LOWEST...NEAR
510-516 DAM...ON TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF DROP 850 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -12 C TO -14 C ON TUESDAY WITH
SOME MODERATION BY WEDNESDAY. NW FLOW AT THE SFC WILL BACK TO SW
FLOW BY WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG 1045-1050 MB SFC HIGH WORKS ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE IMMEDIATE FRONT RANGE/WESTERN PLAINS. THE
CONSENSUS TEMP BLENDS HAVE NOW TRENDED TOWARD THE RAW GFS/ECMWF
OUTPUT SO DID NOT MAKE ANY NOTABLE CHANGES TO TEMP FORECAST. TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...WIND CHILLS WILL BE AS COLD AS -10 TO -15
F ACROSS THE CWA WITH -20 F POSSIBLE IN NW FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY...WARMER AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS BUT STILL NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODEL DISCREPANCIES REMAIN LARGE. AT THE 150
HR FORECAST VALID 18Z/SAT (1/3/2014)...THE GFS HAS AN ORGANIZED
MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE DGEX ALSO HAS A
MORE NORTHERN POSITIONING BUT IS FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS.

THE ECMWF HAS THE VORT. MAX WAY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER SW
OKLAHOMA AT THE SAME TIME. THIS SOLUTION WOULD KEEP ANY APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE 12.28/12Z DETERMINISTIC RUN OF
THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 12.28/12Z GEM HAS
SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH WITH ITS LOW TRACK. FURTHERMORE...THE GEFS AND
NAEFS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH OF A SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST EITHER.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE THE UPPER SUPPORT TO BE VERY
STRONG BUT IT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH NO
ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH. THE QUESTION IS
WHEN DOES THE MID-LEVEL LOW...INITIALLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK...PHASE WITH THE POLAR BRANCH OF THE JET THAT WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST. KEPT 30-40 POPS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AND A
SNOW CHANCE NORTH. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

A WEAK EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND EXIT THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING.
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS NEAR THE BOUNDARY WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL IOWA COULD EXPAND EAST INTO EAST CENTRAL IOWA BY
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER IF THE SNOW MAKES IT INTO EASTERN
IOWA...IT SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE THE I380/HIGHWAY 218 CORRIDOR AND
SHOULD NOT RESTRICT VISIBILITIES MUCH. AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHERN MN WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH TO REACH EAST CENTRAL IOWA MONDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP AS THEY MOVE
SOUTH. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUDS HOLDING TOGETHER...THEY
HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THIS SET OF TAFS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...DLF






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.